2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/12 - AR runoff, ME, ND, NV, SC, VA)

[RogueBeaver]

5% in: Akin 34, Brunner/Steelman 30.

[RogueBeaver]

Tmth: For the same reason Fischer did: stayed above the fray while the others mudslang. Which bodes well for TT next week in Badgerland.

[RogueBeaver]

No one expected Case to be remotely competitive with Hirono anyways.

Next up: CT/FL/WI. WI is a complete coin flip, the others are foregone conclusions. Anyone want to guess who'll get a bigger % in CT? .

[RogueBeaver]

Ryan was quite effusive in praising TT at tonight's Waukesha rally but avoided a de jure endorsement. On top of Walker's de facto endorsement last week.

[RogueBeaver]

It was my personal thought that Ryan was going to endorse Thompson some time last week but other things obviously got in the way. I still thought his selection would help Thompson because the Romney team would nudge him to offer some praise/a subtle endorsement. This should be enough.

Neumann's a personal friend of his. But yeah, this should be enough.

[RogueBeaver]

CT is a decoy race, not a winnable one. McMahon has the $$$ and marketing skills to keep it at least somewhat competitive. There is no chance in hell of a Republican breaching that federal PVI wall even in a 2010 environment. I've liked McMahon since 2010 and will take her over Shays anyday. Connecticut is as Democratic as California (D+7), no Republican can win a Senate race in either state.

Also LOL at the polls thing. PPP has Murphy up 47-38 over Shays and 50-42 over McMahon. She'll be buying ads in the NYC market, something which Murphy can't do except in very short bursts. And that's the point- decoying, not winning.

[RogueBeaver]

It looks like all four Wisconsin Republican candidates are living in the same area of the state (southeast quadrant). Any idea who will be favored in the other areas? Also, how much will the other candidates be hurt or benefit from residing in or near Neumann's old Congressional district? I assume Neumann will be strongest there. Will he be able to swamp the others or are they getting the last laugh by biting into his lead?

You mean Ryan's district? Neumann won by 4 in '94 and 2 in '96, don't overestimate the homeboy factor. He does have some late momentum but on the flip side both he and Hovde have been sliming each other while TT has been above the fray.

[RogueBeaver]

Keep our fingers crossed. Mack has been projected the winner in FL. Murphy is up 63-37 on Bysiewicz and McMahon's up 73-27 on Shays. That one should be called soon.

[RogueBeaver]

Mica trounces Adams in FL-9. Ugh. CT unchanged at 18% in.

[RogueBeaver]

McMahon projected the GOP winner.

[RogueBeaver]

More importantly he's running way ahead of the Dems combined. The Senate turnout is also good.

[RogueBeaver]

Murphy projected the Dem winner.

WI polls close in 5 min.

[RogueBeaver]

TT 37, EH 32, MN 23, JF 9 with 0.5% in. That's from Dane.

[RogueBeaver]

Which is a problem for TT IIRC.

[RogueBeaver]

Hovde 38, Thompson 28, Neumann 24.

Gass: Should Thompsonians be worried at this stage?

[RogueBeaver]

Hovde 36, Thompson 31, Neumann 26. I'm worried because TT's getting slaughtered rurally and he isn't competitive enough in Milwaukee.

[RogueBeaver]

Now 35-32 Hovde, Thompson's doing well in the west.

[RogueBeaver]

33-32 Hovde. Iowa caucuses all over again?

[RogueBeaver]

Thompson has pulled ahead in Milwaukee. 32.4-31.9 Hovde.

[RogueBeaver]

34-32 Hovde with some FV returns.

[RogueBeaver]

 Hovde is leading in the Milwaukee suburbs while Thompson leads in the city proper.

[RogueBeaver]

Oops. Now 33-32 again with 9% in.

[RogueBeaver]

Here you go.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Senate/2012/Primary/WI

[RogueBeaver]

31.9-31.6 Thompson. His Milwaukee County margin is dwindling with every report.

Gass: How important?

[RogueBeaver]

32-31.4 Thompson.