Canada General Discussion

[RogueBeaver]

So this looks like confirmation that a shuffle is indeed pending. MacKay, Toews, Paradis and Fantino are all in varying degrees of trouble so let's see if Harper moves them. Chris Alexander is tipped by some Hillsters to take over Oda's ministry, unless he stays as MacKay's PS.

[RogueBeaver]

If anyone stays it'll be MacKay. He deserves a demotion rather than a lateral move IMO but Harper won't do it. Toews might get that judgeship he's wanted for years, LeBel replaces Paradis. Fantino was a complete dud and was put there because Harper wanted to further weaken MacKay. Why else resurrect a position last held by the dud of duds- Pierre Sevigny?

More analysis on Oda.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1221037--analysis-bev-oda-goes-away-quietly-true-to-form-in-harper-s-ottawa

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/07/03/john-ivison-bev-odas-downfall-rooted-in-the-kind-of-entitlement-she-was-trying-to-get-rid-of/

[RogueBeaver]

The problem is than MacKay is the former and last PC leader, so firing him would send a signal which could be harmful to him.

MacKay has no influence in the party. Nor do any of the Reds. Harper doesn't want to deal with the media whining so he'll move MacKay laterally. He's not a bad minister but needs a domestic portfolio. Became a creature of his department rather than running it, even before the F-35 clusterfark.

[RogueBeaver]

Somehow I'm not surprised.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/insider-prompting-led-oda-to-step-down-ahead-of-cabinet-shuffle-source/article4386157/

[RogueBeaver]

Bourque is reporting that Erin O'Toole will be the Tory nominee to replace Oda in Durham when the by-election is called. No link yet, on their front page.

[RogueBeaver]

Heenan has also hosted PET and the Strangler, so it isn't completely blue. Besides he won't be replacing Oda as minister, just as the Member. Alexander probably gets Oda's job.

[RogueBeaver]

For once, I largely agree with Simpson.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/time-to-shuffle-the-deck-but-harpers-short-on-aces/article4387111/

Facepalm.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/07/04/weston-naval-helicopter-delays.html

[RogueBeaver]

Headdesk doesn't begin to describe this. Replacing dead weight with dead weight and keeping useless portfolios lying around. :mad: :mad:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/harper-makes-slight-cabinet-shuffle/article4390615/

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah he's a crap personnel manager. TBH I didn't expect anything huge in this shuffle, it goes against his MO, but replacing dead weight with dead weight... yeesh.

[RogueBeaver]

Fully agreed with you.

Ugh. Just ugh.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Mastro%2Blashes%2Bagainst%2BElections%2BCanada%2Bmedia%2Bover%2Bexpense%2Ballegations/6884206/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

The problem is that Harper doesn't like appointing new people. He'll shuffle existing ministers around but with the exceptions of Bernier and Chong all the attrition was through voluntary or involuntary retirement. I'm sure Cannon and Verner would still be in Cabinet had they won. Flaherty probably goes for one last term, Fantino will be 73 and might retire, Toews might get his judgeship.

IMO:

MacKay: Move laterally. He had become a creature of his department even pre-procurement FUBARing and like Bernier, too easily seduced by the shinies in anything remotely international. Maybe House Leader, he'd sure as hell be better than Van Loan.

Fantino: Backbench, abolish that useless post held by Sevigny (another star turned uber-dud).

Alexander: In Oda's job. Ideally in MOD but that would never happen.

Ablonczy: She's been with Harper forever and never promoted. Dunno why.

Ambrose/Finley/Leitch/Raitt: Earned Green Cards but no vacancies.

Rajotte: Too many Albertans, though ideally he'd replace Clement or Paradis.

Bernier: Out of the penalty box, somewhere domestic.


Dark horse: Ryan Leef, Yukon. Maybe a vacant PS post to start?

IMO Del Maestro and Poilievre are our Rat Pack... more like Brat Pack.

[RogueBeaver]

Alberta Grits had been mostly dead since the '20s, why would the NEP have anything to do with their links being severed?

CSD is right about the PLQ- before 1964 the provincial party was a division of the federal one. Hence the name "Federation Liberal du Quebec", or FLQ (another reason why the name was probably changed). Given what happened between the parties during WWII the only surprise was how long the divorce took.

[RogueBeaver]

Harper says the big shuffle will come next summer along with prorogation.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/stephen-harper-says-no-cabinet-shuffle-prorogation-until-mid-term-161459825.html

[RogueBeaver]

Yep. This one sounds like it'll be during the summer, plus it makes a lot of sense. Second half of the Parliament and a newish Cabinet.

[RogueBeaver]

Oh, okay. So when Harper prorogued Parliament before I think it was the 2008 election, that was controversial because of the specifics of that circumstance? Forgive me; I didn't really start following Canadian politics until sometime in 2010.

There were two: one was in December 2008 during the coalition crisis. The other was December 2009 to March 2010, holidays and Olympics.

[RogueBeaver]

Yep. Dunderdale hasn't made national news, so I assume she's doing an OK job. Hard to follow a living legend like Danny Williams but she's making the best of it.

[RogueBeaver]

ROFL.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/opinion/Redford%2Bsights%2Bchair/6898609/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

In this political climate, a Red Tory would win in a massive landslide.

Maybe, but the leadership's another matter. Harper's probable successor as party leader is Albertan, but the name's Jason Kenney. Not Alison Redford.

[RogueBeaver]

Toews might get his judgeship.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/a-judgeship-for-toews-161757585.html

[RogueBeaver]

Shooting spree in Scarborough, 2 dead and 22 injured.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2012/07/16/toronto-scarborough-shooting.html

[RogueBeaver]

Hopefully that neopotism brings Conservative popularity even lower.

Purgatory support is nearing 30% in the worst of polls for them, so they're certainly hitting their floor at this point.

Yep. We have the lowest ceiling but the highest floor.

[RogueBeaver]

Shawn Atleo cruises to a second term as AFN chief.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/atleos-near-certain-win-vindicates-his-policy-of-harper-co-operation/article4425101/

[RogueBeaver]

Challenge gladly accepted.

[RogueBeaver]

Okaaay.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/raes-exit-honeymoon-boosts-liberals-in-quebec-in-latest-nanos-poll/article4427072/

[RogueBeaver]

And he hasn't even announced yet!