Canada General Discussion

[RogueBeaver]

Hear hear. Mulroney's the only ex-PM with FP advice worth listening to.

Tories are running Cantonese and Punjabi radio ads on Trudeau's drug policy, which seem to be working thus far.

[RogueBeaver]

Great, the Champlain Bridge is literally cracking up. Or at least one of its support pillars is.

[RogueBeaver]

Alberta PCs are holding their leadership review today and tomorrow. Most expect Redford to pass, but by how much? Most observers don't think they'll boot their leader for the fourth consecutive time, mostly because they're in no mood to do so. There's still time, and at any rate I hope they keep her till 2016.

[RogueBeaver]

Things could get interesting if Wright is charged or the Tories lose Brandon-Souris.

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau calls the PLQ "supposedly federalist." Actually, he was referring to the NDP. On the flip side, Mulcair talking that up hurts him in Ontario. So a draw.

[RogueBeaver]

It has been one form of Tory or another for eons, '93 excepted, though. Personally I expect another Calgary Centre.

[RogueBeaver]

Forgot to post these CROP from a couple of days ago. 36-28-16-13 topline federally, 31 apiece among Francophones with a 57-19 Liberal lead over the Tories among non-Francophones. 308 projects that as 42-32-4, with the BQ being wiped out. Never seen the latter in a poll, don't recall last time I saw the first. Still happy results for me.

Provincially a 37-32-17 race, with a 39-27 PQ lead among Francophones. CROP projects a Liberal minority with those numbers. 308 60-57 PLQ.

[RogueBeaver]

Kenney will run in Calgary-Midnapore, he just announced.

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair hitting Trudeau on the Kenny sexual harassment allegations.

[RogueBeaver]

PET's war on economics. Knew the policies, not some of the quotes.

[RogueBeaver]

Gagnon unintentionally hilariously summarizes Couillard's tenure as PLQ leader thus far. Flip-flop, refuse to impose caucus discipline and hide from the media. Oh, and get interviewed by police. PRODIGAL SON RETURNS!!! This isn't the Couillard I remember from last time.

On another subject, Hastman interview.

[RogueBeaver]

Calandra trolled real hard today: calling Mulcair a corrupt Liberal who accepted that bribe and saying 3/4 of Grits have fraud convictions in their past.

[RogueBeaver]

Unfortunately that's an all-party consensus in Ontario now, even for the severely conservative Tories. Pity.

[RogueBeaver]

He should be fired, obviously.

[RogueBeaver]

National Ipsos: 35 LPC, 29 CPC, 26 NDP. 37-30-29 in Ontario, 37L/30N/29C in BC, 33/27/27/12 in QC. Among highly motivated voters 37L. This said, I love me some comparative vote efficiency, among other things.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, that's projected as 126 Liberals, 121 Tories, 60 NDP and 30 BQ. Needless to say Harper would quit after a decent interval if the Tories were reduced to a minority. I find the Quebec numbers most interesting, given that they're very different from CROP which shows a BQ shutout (!). I'd believe CROP and Leger over Ipsos for QC myself.

Another thing is that a weak Liberal minority in 2015 could be bad for them long-term. Rookie PM has to form a government from aging (and not so aging, like Brison) veterans, many of whom I expect to retire soon, and newcomers not only to Parliament, but in many cases elected office and guide it to an early election against Kenney and Cullen/Leslie/? That's probably one reason why they've leaked a 2-election strategy before.

[RogueBeaver]

OLP wants Trudeau to help them at election time. Guess running on a tax increase isn't as fun as it sounded.

[RogueBeaver]

Looks like Horwath is finally ready to go for gold and pull the plug this spring. "I've made it clear that I'm seeking the job of premier." another Ipsos or NanoWe need s poll here. As a reminder, here's the one from last month. Something for everyone in there.

[RogueBeaver]

Ontario Dippers: does Horwath really think she could win? Those Ipsos LV numbers suggest a certain type of Horwath surge could lead to a Tory government.

[RogueBeaver]

As always it'll be won in the campaign, and no one's really opened up on the NDP yet. More generally I'd like to be cautiously optimistic.

[RogueBeaver]

Congrats OLP, you're doubling hydro prices!

[RogueBeaver]

More inane provincial ideas: PQ wants to limit the discounts on books.

[RogueBeaver]

Speaking of that, Duceppe has a mixed view of the charter. Some of it goes too far, other parts not far enough. Remembering that everyone's fairly close together.

[RogueBeaver]

U de M and Sherbrooke reject the PQ's odious document.

[RogueBeaver]

Anyone catch the debate on Chong's PMB? I'm with Funke.