TX-Sen: Ground war to the finish

[RogueBeaver]

Polls close in 10 minutes.

Texans: Who reports when, generally speaking?

[RogueBeaver]

Politico live results.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Senate/2012/Primary/TX

[RogueBeaver]

With 0.4% reporting: Dewhurst 43, Cruz 29, Leppert 20.

[RogueBeaver]

So far PPP is looking pretty accurate. With 1% in it's Dewhurst 45, Cruz 29, Leppert 18.

[RogueBeaver]

My own inkling is that if Leppert continues to hold the DFW fort a runoff is assured. Could be wrong though.

[RogueBeaver]

None that I'm aware of. Plus there are way too many candidates this round.

[RogueBeaver]

So far Dewhurst seems to be crawling upwards... about 0.1-0.2% every time something comes in.  Still very early though.

[RogueBeaver]

Dewhurst 47, Cruz 30, Leppert 15 @ 2%.

[RogueBeaver]

First results from Harris County:

Dewhurst 52
Cruz 38
Leppert 5

Hopefully that changes somewhat.

How effective do you think those ads were? From what I heard you can't turn on the TV without some Dewhurst ad- complete saturation. On the other hand, it was Memorial Day weekend.

[RogueBeaver]

Dewhurst @ 48. *Gulp*

[RogueBeaver]

With the PRC ads presumably. The immigration ads ran starting last week. Besides being complete BS I think immigration was a bad idea for 2 reasons. 1) Highlighted Dewhurst's own weakness on that issue 2) Killed his Rose Garden strategy and forced a slugging match with Cruz.

If this goes to a runoff then Cruz should call James and Pettinger among others to thank them. And be very nice to Tom Leppert.

Perry: He's staying positive though (especially since Cruz voters were Perry's ardent backers in '10) and at least from what I read didn't make any appearances with Dewhurst.

[RogueBeaver]

Too early to predict whether there'll be a runoff? So far PPP seems to be holding up almost perfectly... but I'd feel a little better with Leppert at 15-6 and Dewhurst at 45-6.

10% in: Dewhurst 48, Cruz 31, Leppert 14.

[RogueBeaver]

15% in, numbers still unchanged. Almost eerie. Even weirder is how Dewhurst edges Leppert in Dallas while FW is a 3-way contest.

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently Leppert has conceded. After losing his own city to Dewhurst... OUCH. Cruz at least has the excuse that Dewhurst is also a Houston native.

21% in: Dewhurst 47, Cruz 31, Leppert 14. Looks like my prediction is doing OK for now.

[RogueBeaver]

Not by much. Some Texans on another site I visit say that a runoff is now happening... would like to think so given how static this whole thing has been. No one moving more than 1.5 either way, Dewhurst never hitting 48.

[RogueBeaver]

Awesome.   Incidentally this is the first GOP Senate runoff since GHWB ran in '64.

[RogueBeaver]

Politico is also projecting a runoff. Have the local media done so yet?

[RogueBeaver]

Never mind- everyone's called a runoff. With 43% in, Dewhurst 46, Cruz 32, Leppert 14.

[RogueBeaver]

Yep. Still a bit surprised that Leppert lost Dallas County. PPP agrees with Reg: just Tweeted that Dewhurst won earlies by 18 but today's vote by 6.

[RogueBeaver]

Perry reiterates his support for Dewhurst- "We must send a proven conservative like David Dewhurst to Washington" in a statement.

[RogueBeaver]

Interesting, but wrong thread.

[RogueBeaver]

Only the high-intensity voters come out for a runoff vote. Cruz has a comfortable lead with those voters. Plus the national organizations- CFG, TPE, etc- can play Wild Weasel for Cruz and either match or dare I say, outspend Dewhurst.

[RogueBeaver]

Speaking of borders, that's the last subject Dewhurst should discuss given his own record there. Also LOL at playing the birther card.

Dewhurst had his own oops moment on Ingraham's show.

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2012/05/oops-dewhurst-cant-remember-am.html

[RogueBeaver]

Some more stats courtesy of Michael Barone: a rather wide discrepancy between early voting and Tuesday's.

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/can-cruz-cruise-do-dewhurst/570676

KBH all but endorses Dewhurst.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/47616663#47616663

James endorses Dewhurst.

http://www.chron.com/news/article/James-endorses-Dewhurst-in-Texas-US-Senate-race-3599727.php

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently there might be a June 21 debate in Dallas. The more debates, the better.


Question to Texans: does the runoff have early/absentee voting?