Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[RogueBeaver]

More bad headlines for Marois.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/pq-riding-executives-see-duceppe-as-party-saviour/article2307220/

[RogueBeaver]

Weird: the anti-Marois forces are eager to pull the trigger, but many of them don't want a Duceppe coronation.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-au-pq/201201/18/01-4487245-mouvement-concerte-contre-pauline-marois.php

[RogueBeaver]

I won't believe that Marois will be deposed till I see it. Especially given how badly the PQ is fractured on this leadership question. (Just read the first article's comments section)

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340567/duceppe-ne-fait-pas-l-unanimite

Also: Bou-Bou's former chief of staff goes Caquiste.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/19/01-4487474-les-liberaux-minimisent-le-passage-de-mario-bertrand-a-la-caq.php

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340518/pas-de-discussions-formelles-avec-le-pq-soutient-francoise-david

[RogueBeaver]

Marois recruits a star candidate.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/19/01-4487532-pauline-marois-recrute-lecologiste-daniel-breton.php

I'M NOT GOING ANYWHERE!!!

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-au-pq/201201/20/01-4487779-pauline-marois-entend-rester-jusquau-bout.php

[RogueBeaver]

Next up in the anti-Marois barrage: Landry and the unions. But not even caucus can unseat her against her will- only a membership vote can do that.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340796/duel-decisif-entre-marois-et-duceppe

I agree wholeheartedly with this editorial. Peqs are falling into the Pelciste trap of leadership drama (which is this case is mostly unjustified IMO) being a substitute for resolving longstanding structural issues.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340766/marois-duceppe-tirer-la-ligne

[RogueBeaver]

Failed coup?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-au-pq/201201/21/01-4488066-pq-un-putsch-rate.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_les-plus-populaires-title_article_ECRAN1POS3

[RogueBeaver]

ADQ formally votes for merger, so CAQ now has a caucus.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/340816/les-membres-de-l-adq-enterinent-la-fusion-de-leur-parti-avec-la-caq

[RogueBeaver]

Duceppe is now in permanent retirement due to an ethics scandal.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/in-wake-of-probe-report-duceppe-says-hes-finished-with-active-politics/article2310851/

Legault will be running against Scott McKay in L'Assomption- Parizeau's old riding.

National Assembly standings:

PLQ: 64
PQ: 44
CAQ: 9
IND: 4
ON: 2
QS: 1
VAC: 1

[RogueBeaver]

Why? The PQ has held that riding, which formerly belonged to Parizeau, since 1989. '07 was a fluke. In a tight 2007-style race which we're now seeing it should be rated as Tossup.

On another note: some Peqs are worried about ceding most of north-central Montreal to QS if they somehow negotiate an electoral pact.

[RogueBeaver]

Eh. McKay is a staunch Marois supporter, BTW. Used to lead the provincial Greens, she personally recruited him to run in '08.

[RogueBeaver]

We'll have to wait for a poll which includes the PCQ. I wouldn't be surprised if Charest won another minority.

[RogueBeaver]

New poll: CAQ 31, PLQ 29, PQ 21, QS 11. If anyone wants to plug this into their model...

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/23/01-4488697-sondage-marois-nest-pas-au-bout-de-ses-peines.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B4_manchettes_231_accueil_POS4

[RogueBeaver]

The shine is rubbing off. Like the ADQ in 2007, once people get a good look at the old-new shiny... the deluge. Right now my best guess would be a Liberal minority propped up by the CAQ or vice-versa.

CSD: 'Tis consistent with other polls.

[RogueBeaver]

In that case we have another election within a year due to the instability. All 3 of Marois' potential successors- Gerrard, McKay and Curzi, lose their seats. So she might well stay on as leader despite the worst PQ result since 1970. Should be even more interesting once the PCQ starts to poll.

[RogueBeaver]

Landry snipes at Marois, again.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/dossiers/crise-au-pq/201201/24/01-4488708-bernard-landry-jette-la-pierre-a-pauline-marois.php

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/debats/opinions/201201/23/01-4488622-cap-sur-lindependance.php

[RogueBeaver]

No, Nicolas Gerrard.

2) Weil will still be my MNA unless Jennings is recruited for the CAQ.

[RogueBeaver]

Same one. Seeing Beaudoin, Curzi, Tomassi and Lapointe go down would make my election night. Though Tomassi's not likely to be defeated, but one can still hope...

[RogueBeaver]

Double whammy for Duceppe, perhaps more incoming?

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201201/24/01-4489087-gilles-duceppe-de-nouveau-eclabousse.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B12_en-manchette_558_section_POS1

[RogueBeaver]

PQ executive meeting wraps up well for Marois.


http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/341397/marois-finit-par-dire-oui-au-rip

Leger: CAQ 33, PLQ 27, PQ 25.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/341333/sondage-leger-marketing-le-devoir-the-gazette-une-victoire-morale-pour-pauline-marois

No comment.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/341330/le-spq-libre-se-rallie-inconditionnellement

No. Just no.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/28/01-4490364-les-pequistes-confiants-de-prendre-le-pouvoir.php

[RogueBeaver]

Plus the PCQ will split votes with the CAQ. While I wouldn't be very happy with a PQ victory, (I just figure a provincial NDP government is taking over rather than pantsh**tting about "teh ev0l sepratists"), we badly need a change in government and handing the government over to a bunch of neophytes is definitely not something I'd be happy about either.

[RogueBeaver]

Usually lawyers are big PLQ donors, so this should worry the Pelquistes somewhat.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201201/30/01-4490977-dons-a-la-caq-des-avocats-genereux.php

[RogueBeaver]

CAQ is still nonexistent so far as Anglos are concerned.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/03/01-4492406-un-ex-president-dalliance-quebec-appuie-la-caq.php

[RogueBeaver]

Oh Lordy- QS wants to outflank the Peqs on language.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/04/01-4492649-quebec-solidaire-se-prepare-au-prochain-scrutin.php

[RogueBeaver]

Yes please.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/09/01-4494152-environnement-la-caq-promet-une-reflexion-daffaires.php

Get a slogan which hasn't been used in every campaign for the past 9 years.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-quebecoise/201202/09/01-4494272-leconomie-et-lemploi-seront-les-enjeux-de-la-campagne-dit-charest.php

Duh. Both are splinter groups in the first place.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201202/08/01-4494017-option-nationale-porte-ouverte-a-une-fusion.php

Keep it classy, Pelquistes.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/342176/des-liberaux-denigrent-l-anglais-de-legault

Jennings: I said all along she wouldn't accept.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the Legault video in question.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c38sYyTNcIc