Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[RogueBeaver]

TCTC concludes that the odds of a PQ government are very high, just uncertain whether or not they'll cross the majority threshold.

They project PQ 64, PLQ 32, CAQ 27, QS 2. First time since 1970 that the second-place PV finisher does not form OO (then it was UN/PQ).

[RogueBeaver]

Per Twitter, Parizeau is supporting Aussant personally but the PQ at large.

CAQ tries to sell their platform.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/25/01-4568132-la-caq-veut-convaincre-les-quebecois-que-son-plan-est-realisable.php

Nuns' Island bridge has to be replaced. Duh.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/regional/montreal/201208/24/01-4568091-le-pont-de-lile-des-soeurs-devra-etre-remplace-des-que-possible.php

Marois interview.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/24/01-4568074-entrevue-avec-pauline-marois-lhumilite-de-la-survivante.php

PQ wants higher taxes for the top bracket.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/357765/titre

PLQ could come third.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/357756/le-4-septembre-sera-t-il-un-jour-de-premiere

[RogueBeaver]

Good ol' PQ and other pure laine types. Reminding me everyday why despite how Montreal is probably the closest major city to me, I will probably never visit it.

Politics aren't great but hey, we do have a nightlife to compensate.

[RogueBeaver]

TV doesn't work. Not unless the elevator cable snaps like the PLC last year. What's happening here is slow and steady. Polls haven't moved much outside the MOE for anyone since the campaign started.

Charest is so desperate for Francophone votes he pulled a leaf out of the NDP/BQ playbook and asked for the language laws to be extended federally but then flip-flopped in the space of 24 hours. Says it all, really. Marois is now the presumptive premier, 8 days from now she'll be premier-designate.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/28/01-4568953-loi-101-dans-les-entreprises-federales-charest-recule.php

[RogueBeaver]

Forum has corrected their sampling problem from last week: PQ 33, PLQ 28, CAQ 27.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/08/30/poll-shows-marois-pq-winning-a-slight-majority-in-quebec-election/

Marois reminds the students she can only repeal loi 12 with a majority (or with QS support if she winds up with 61/2 seats).

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/30/01-4569664-pauline-marois-met-en-garde-les-etudiants.php

Lisee continues self-promoting, as usual.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/la-campagne-virale/201208/29/01-4569407-jean-francois-lisee-fait-encore-parler-de-lui.php?

Legault goes hawkish on universities. Wanted cops at UQAM.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/358085/universite-francois-legault-denonce-les-voyous

[RogueBeaver]

I've never seen one riding get polled so often as Sherbrooke. Surprised to see Charest come back there.

He'll either win or lose it in a squeaker. My early prediction on the next PLQ leader is Fournier if he's interested. Not Coderre, the PLQ doesn't like a hatchet man leading them.

[RogueBeaver]

CROP: PQ 32, CAQ 28, PLQ 26. We should have one final Leger poll this weekend and then curtains till Tuesday night.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/elections/caq-liberals-battle-it-out-for-second-place-in-quebec-poll/article4511787/


Hebert: Liberals are done and CAQ has potential.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1249820--hebert-quebec-election-lining-up-to-be-charest-s-last-round

TCTC: on the brink between PQ minority and majority.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2012/08/31-aout-2012-nouveau-sondage-crop.html

Haha: Charest says only he or Marois can form a government.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/30/01-4569872-jean-charest-lance-un-ultime-appel-aux-federalistes.php

Stating the obvious: Marois says sovereignty is less important in a minority.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/31/01-4570085-pauline-marois-la-souverainete-reculerait-si-le-pq-est-minoritaire.php?

Marois will start making demands almost immediately upon taking office if she wins.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/358257/marois-envisage-sa-premiere-rencontre-avec-harper-et-dresse-sa-liste-d-exigences


La Presse endorsed the PLQ while saying the CAQ is an alternative for those who want a change in government. Le Devoir will probably endorse the PQ as usual. The Torontonians are split between PLQ and CAQ.

http://www.lapresse.ca/debats/editoriaux/andre-pratte/201208/30/01-4569794-pour-la-stabilite.php

[RogueBeaver]

Did Redford have an approval rating in the 20s?

[RogueBeaver]

La Presse has endorsed the PLQ while also casting the CAQ as an acceptable alternative. Le Devoir endorsed the PQ, NP the CAQ, G&M PLQ.

QC: Discussed a couple of pages back.

[RogueBeaver]

La Presse has endorsed the PLQ while also casting the CAQ as an acceptable alternative. Le Devoir endorsed the PQ, NP the CAQ, G&M PLQ.

Le Droit (Gatineau-Ottawa) has endorsed PLQ. I think Le Soleil (Quebec City) gives the choice between PLQ and CAQ but says people should consider the capital was well treated by the government, the mayor had a great relationship with the premier, and PLQ ministers running in Louis-Hébert and Jean-Talon deserve support of citizens.

La Presse, Le Soleil, Le Droit are Gesca/ Power Corp newspapers.

The National Post is for CAQ? I would imagine they are against their economic nationalism, intervention in the economy and Caisse, hike in capital gains and dividend tax, and spending promises.

Which is mentioned- but the Liberals and CAQ aren't that different on the economic front.

[RogueBeaver]

Poirot: If forced to choose Legault would probably side with the Liberals at NCM time. However if Marois wins a strong minority or de facto majority (w/QS) then she'll go for the kill and have another election immediately after Charbonneau reports.

[RogueBeaver]

Hatman, when's your final projection?

[RogueBeaver]

The referendum issue has been dormant since 1995.

[RogueBeaver]

Robocalls?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/quebec-liberals-file-robo-call-complaint-with-police/article4516311/

[RogueBeaver]

A bit outlierish from CROP and Leger's results, but considering Fprum caught a fleeting glimpse of Wildrose's dissipating momentum in Alberta 6 months ago I wouldn't discount this poll.

[RogueBeaver]

PQ majority, Liberal OO, Charest narrowly defeated. That's my prediction.

[RogueBeaver]

It wouldn't be a coalition, rather they would vote with her on supply and confidence matters plus most major legislation. If PQ/QS doesn't have a majority then she negotiates when necessary as is normal in minority governments.

Transition prep is well underway.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201209/04/01-4570835-les-partis-sont-deja-prets-pour-lapres-scrutin.php

[RogueBeaver]

I'll disagree with you Inks. The PLQ is an established party with higher vote concentration and better GOTV. Maybe in PV but I'm quite sure that they won't lose the seat count for OO.

[RogueBeaver]

Only 4 ridings have been declared. Looks like a minority government at this stage.

[RogueBeaver]

Networks project a PQ government, unsure whether it'll be a minority or majority. Charest trailing in Sherbrooke.

[RogueBeaver]

She's already promised an early election if a minority. Once the corruption inquiry reports... that'll do the work for her.

[RogueBeaver]

LBB delivered his victory speech. Gaetan Barrette (i.e. the "fat doctor") is defeated.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest is almost certainly defeated though no projection yet, trailing by about 1000 votes with roughly 1/3 of precincts reporting.

[RogueBeaver]

David elected in Gouin.

[RogueBeaver]

They also lost Argenteuil by a bigger margin than in the by-election.