Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[RogueBeaver]

Hebert: Harper won't mind a CAQ victory.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1242400--hebert-stephen-harper-won-t-mourn-caq-victory-in-quebec

Landry denounces Legault.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/15/01-4565377-bernard-landry-denonce-larrivisme-de-francois-legault.php

Here's that CROP poll.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/15/01-4565442-legault-prend-de-lelan.php

Charest goes bare-knuckled.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/356948/charest-jette-les-gants-le-premier

[RogueBeaver]

PQ, QS, ON. UCQ kinda reminds me of the Therese Casgrain-led PSD back in the '50s.

[RogueBeaver]

Charest pleads for Caquistes to vote Grit.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/356957/jean-charest-appelle-les-caquistes-a-se-rallier-au-plq-pour-bloquer-le-pq

Lisee: Notwithstanding clause to override the Supremes on language. Looks like Curzi has found his successor.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/16/01-4565767-charte-sur-la-laicite-le-pq-pourrait-defier-la-cour-supreme-dit-lisee.php?

Marois' ID shtick: even the best Anglo commentators, McPherson and Macdonald, are missing a key part of that puzzle. Marois said a few years ago that she believed one of the reasons Boisclair got pushed into third was because he ceded the ID issue to Dumont and therefore a chunk of those voters. "Come hell or high water, no one's outbidding me there" essentially.


While I strongly disagree with Josee Legault's view here, her take on Legault's now-infamous comments on academic performance is still worth reading. On a related tangent, the problems with both English and French K-11 public schools should be the educational discussion this campaign. But it never will be.

http://www2.lactualite.com/josee-legault/2012/08/14/francois-legault-des-risques-du-populisme/

[RogueBeaver]

Bellemare endorses Cardin in Sherbrooke.

http://www.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-quebec-2012/2012/08/16/002-marc-bellemare-annonce-candidature-vendredi-sherbrooke.shtml

Oh FFS. There are plenty of people trying to politicize hockey as is, this crap will make it much worse if she's serious.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/dossiers/elections-quebecoises/201208/17/01-4565837-pq-la-souverainete-passe-aussi-par-le-hockey.php?

Charest: Still on track for balanced budget next FY.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/17/01-4565956-les-promesses-nempecheront-pas-lequilibre-budgetaire-dit-charest.php

Legault: No cooperation in a minority situation. He might not have a choice.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/357059/legault-refuserait-de-collaborer-avec-un-gouvernement-minoritaire

[RogueBeaver]

We're not even halfway through the campaign. Plus the debates starting Sunday. That's Charest's best and probably last chance to go on offense.

[RogueBeaver]

We're in agreement here. TBH this is looking a bit like '76 but with a much lower leadership quality on both sides. CAQ is providing a safe haven for disaffected Liberals like the UN did then. Regardless of what happens the PLQ will probably have its worst electoral result since the Duplessis era.

[RogueBeaver]

Dippers, you're getting your wish... in 2016.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/mulcair-says-ndp-will-run-quebec-party-in-time-for-the-provincial-next-election-166568356.html

[RogueBeaver]

Charest: I'll be targeted at debate time. Reminder: tomorrow night's is 8-10 PM on Radio-Canada. (Yes, there's livestreaming)

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/18/01-4566185-debats-je-vais-etre-la-cible-dit-charest.php

Charest interview.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/18/01-4566157-jean-charest-se-confie-sa-campagne-ses-motivations-sa-famille.php

David interview.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/18/01-4566172-101-questions-avec-francoise-david.php

Municipal police want more $$$.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/18/01-4566207-les-policiers-municipaux-demandent-un-meilleur-financement.php?

PQ bill comes to $1 billion. Liberal is 1.2 IIRC. Forget "balanced budget" for the foreseeable future.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/357148/marois-fera-pour-1-milliard-de-promesses

Debate strategies.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/357178/de-durs-defis-attendent-les-chefs

[RogueBeaver]

Realistically QS is hoping that Francoise David gets elected in Gouin and Amir Khadir re-elected in Mercier. So PV fluctuations aren't a huge deal.

Too Close To Call (TCTC) has their final pre-debate poll snapshot, this one averaging CROP and Leger.



And for those of you who want a detailed seat breakdown.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B9hKZEGlI3lXZ3hrRldjY0VGVEU/view?sle=true

[RogueBeaver]

I'm with Hash here: despite disagreeing with David I found her by far the most likeable of the 4.

[RogueBeaver]

Can anyone say "base ploy?" Not that I believe Legault's position on independence has changed- quite the contrary.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/21/01-4566906-charest-soupconne-legault-de-vouloir-declencher-un-referendum.php

Words fail me and I don't want to be infracted, so I'll let this speak for itself.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/21/01-4566965-projet-de-citoyennete-quebecoise-marois-propose-des-regles-plus-strictes.php

Duscheneau throws out more accusations. Weil's my MNA, BTW.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/21/01-4566868-duchesneau-denonce-le-laxisme-du-bureau-de-la-ministre-weil.php


Wrap-up of last night's debate. Tonight's is Charest/Legault.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/357350/le-choc-de-visions-totalement-differentes


TCTC says there'll be a new Forum poll out tomorrow with a PLQ lead. WTF moment.




Riding polls out for Trois-Rivieres and Nicolet-Becancour.

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-nouvelliste/elections-quebec-2012/201208/20/01-4566408-djemila-benhabib-en-tete-dans-trois-rivieres.php

[RogueBeaver]

Senior Liberal fundraiser calls for a strategic CAQ vote.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/elections/quebec-liberal-fundraiser-calls-on-party-faithful-to-vote-for-caq/article4491956/

[RogueBeaver]

Poirot: Not if they're losing 1/4 of non-Francos. Similar thing happened with the UN in '76 albeit on a smaller scale.

[RogueBeaver]

Debate between Charest and Legault starts in less than an hour.

[RogueBeaver]

My bad: debate's at 9 ET, 1 hour.

CS: Loose links yes, formal alliances no. Those have ended badly historically for federalist parties.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's a write-up. In sum, no needle moving. Both scored points but nothing that hasn't been said umpteen times before.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/21/01-4567025-choc-legault-charest-sur-leconomie-et-lintegrite.php

[RogueBeaver]

Why exactly are only the two of them debating?

Because this was the second of 3 one-on-one debates. Yesterday was Charest-Marois, tonight Charest-Legault. Tomorrow is Marois-Legault. All of them with "moderators" who asked questions and not much else. Shouting matches and crosstalk as bad if not worse than federal ones, so I watched them all muted/captioned to spare myself the headache.

As for why they had 3 1-1 debates, no idea.

[RogueBeaver]

Is the QS opposing this?

Francoise David was in the first debate Sunday night, which had all 4 leaders. She actually had the best performance.

[RogueBeaver]

Because that's how the networks set it up. Plus you'd need 3 additional debates. The whole idea was silly. No huge outcry like with Elizabeth May though.

[RogueBeaver]

Given how viciously the Peqs are Anglo-baiting this cycle, I say pox on everyone's house.

[RogueBeaver]

How many francophones are turned off by Marois' crassness? If I were Charest I'd be kissing her pictures; now all non-francophones and non-whites have an urge to vote for me.

She backed off the language test crap once the outcry became too great but she's been language trolling ever since assuming the leadership 5 years ago. Appeasing the linguistic fanatics. And Charest's losing a chunk of non-Francos to Legault. Charest's boasting about his enforcement of the language laws while Legault wants even stricter enforcement- isn't like there's anyone defending Anglo rights among this gang.

[RogueBeaver]

This Legault-Marois debate is just as bad as the other 3 were. Shouting match and nothing new.

[RogueBeaver]

Huh? The CSQ won't endorse the PQ.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/22/01-4567319-la-csq-dit-nappuyer-aucun-parti-puis-denigre-le-parti-liberal-et-la-caq.php

Debate: another yawnworthy shouting match.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/22/01-4567331-legault-et-marois-pour-le-dernier-face-a-face.php

[RogueBeaver]

Marois unveils her fiscal platform.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/24/01-4568002-pauline-marois-devoile-son-cadre-financier.php

Legault: The Crown corporation heads might well get pink-slipped if I win.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/23/01-4567751-francois-legault-quand-on-veut-des-changements-on-sentoure-de-gens-forts.php

Charest interview.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2012/357620/titre

[RogueBeaver]

TCTC now says he's down by 9. 2007 was a close call- so close that Radio-Canada mistakenly declared him defeated but he ultimately won on absentee/early votes. So don't jump to conclusions till the votes are counted. If defeated, it would be the first for an incumbent premier since 1976.