2012 NDP leadership convention

[RogueBeaver]

That's the French equivalent of Dion's English. Harper's is the baseline.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, French is a disqualifier. Nor do I think he has the killer instinct to face Harper and Rae even if his French was half-decent. Mulcair it is.

[RogueBeaver]

More on Mulcair's flirtations from La Presse.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/201203/03/01-4502098-mulcair-a-flirte-avec-les-conservateurs-en-2007.php

Le Devoir didn't think this was a story worth mentioning, which doesn't surprise me. They've always been cordial if not warm towards him.

[RogueBeaver]

It isn't just the French but poor Quebec judgment and total lack of killer instinct. When your opponents are Harper and Rae, the latter is not optional.

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair pulls ahead in fundraising.

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Politics/20120303/ndp-leadership-race-fundraising-120303/

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair today's main target.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/03/04/pol-ndp-debate-montreal.html

[RogueBeaver]

Den Tandt: Mulcair's the best candidate.

http://www.canada.com/news/Tandt%2BMulcair%2Bbest%2Bhope%2Bbattle%2Bwith%2BHarper/6249165/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Hebert: Mulcair will be on probation.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1140841--hebert-ndp-leadership-winner-could-find-many-fences-to-mend-if-margin-of-victory-is-slim

Mulcair under fire.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1140847--ndp-leadership-thomas-mulcair-under-attack-in-montreal-debate

[RogueBeaver]

You guys get wiped off our map and lose OO if anyone but Mulcair wins, per the new Forum poll. I won't like to That Place, but you can find it there.

Cullen also has a decent shot at an upset.

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2012/03/cullen-momentum-threatening-mulcair-ndp-leadership-donation-data-suggests/

[RogueBeaver]

Pratte endorses Mulcair.

http://blogues.cyberpresse.ca/edito/2012/03/05/mulcair-a-raison/

[RogueBeaver]

Neither Horwath nor Dix have endorsed (nor do I think they will- their parties are too divided), though Topp and Nash are doing well in ON and Mulcair's doing well in BC fundraising-wise.

[RogueBeaver]

Not openly, but they might on preferences. I saw speculation that Topp might throw in with Mulcair a few weeks ago, but that makes absolutely no sense.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Topp+Nash+team+against+Mulcair+managers/6266402/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

At Issue: No insight we haven't heard a thousand times before. They think that Mulcair wins if Cullen places 3rd, and that Nash places second no matter what.

[RogueBeaver]

I will be thrilled beyond measure if Mulcair loses. Not because I dislike him either...

[RogueBeaver]

Shocker: the two rightmost candidates are allies. That's nothing compared to what Harper and the Permanent Campaign have in store for whoever wins... which only Mulcair is capable of handling. What I want to know is how things work downballot- but alas, that has to wait until Alice Funke posts again next Wed.

[RogueBeaver]

Negative attacks in a leadership battle are unusual for the NDP, (though what Singh did is very mild by Grit/Tory standards) I agree. Another reason why I think Mulcair might have problems is because his personality isn't in the traditional happy-warrior mold of NDP leaders. That doesn't mean being a "pleasant vegetable"- after all, Jack Layton threw (at Iggy and especially Paul Martin) and took punches, but it does mean storing the iron fist underneath the pillow. Mulcair's the reverse. And yes, there is a pillow, which I can attest to from personal experience.

[RogueBeaver]

You can't have a formal pact for two reasons: a) Counter to party culture b) how the balloting system works. 90% of voting will be done pre-convention. Perhaps the most famous pact in recent memory is Dion-Kennedy in '06, but that's the LPC, where such things are expected.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's last night's At Issue panel discussing the race.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/03/09/pol-at-issue-ndp-leadership.html

[RogueBeaver]

Does anyone outside the NDP, apart from Alice Funke, know anything about the NDP?

Vintage Simpson.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/jeffrey-simpson/will-mulcair-beat-the-ndps-defenders-of-the-faith/article2364630/

Nash profile.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1143227--ndp-leadership-toronto-mp-peggy-nash-fights-for-her-neighbourhood?bn=1

BC standings.

http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/hopefuls%2BBattle%2BSunday/6280154/story.html

[RogueBeaver]

Explicit Thirdism? Fat chance.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201203/09/01-4504256-la-troisieme-voie-de-thomas-mulcair.php

[RogueBeaver]

The French press definitely favours Mulcair and the Quebec pundit class has been saying said "elect Mulcair or we'll start writing your obituaries in Quebec" since the race started.

[RogueBeaver]

I don't know if you noted it, but Phil Edmunston endorsed Mulcair.

Total surprise.

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair still in the hotseat. Here's the debate for those who didn't see it.

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/Politics/20120311/ndp-leadership-debate-120311/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/03/11/ndp-debate-vancouver.html

[RogueBeaver]

Funke will update again tomorrow. Hopefully Cullenmentum is continuing.

[RogueBeaver]

Stating the obvious.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201203/14/01-4505473-npd-singh-invite-ses-partisans-a-appuyer-mulcair.php