2012 NDP leadership convention

[RogueBeaver]

Topp: abolish the Senate, introduce PR.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201201/10/01-4484310-npd-brian-topp-veut-abolir-le-senat.php

[RogueBeaver]

Uhh, the lady is 71 and battling cancer. Plus she won't run again anyways, what's the BFD here. Seat will flip next time as well.

Mulcair: When only 5/59 (Boulerice, Dube, Boivin, Turmel, Laverdiere) are making any sort of headway so far, I can understand the head-banging frustration.

[RogueBeaver]

Moving on, I assume resident Dippers approve of Topp's "junk the Senate, institute PR" ideas?

[RogueBeaver]

So who do you guys support then? Though if somehow Nash becomes a *compromise* candidate I'll be ROFL for at least a week.

[RogueBeaver]

One of your MP's has defected to our side. Her rationale is identical to mine.

Posted a long time ago, and we came to the conclusion that she finally realized that she was a Grit all along, just in the wrong party.

[RogueBeaver]

How is he responsible for her defection? She said she still wishes him the best, BTW. Wonder if there'll be more...

[RogueBeaver]

Dewar got a major union endorsement this week, plus Linda Duncan's.

[RogueBeaver]

No comment.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1114196--brian-topp-s-ndp-leadership-campaign-got-50-000-loan-from-credit-union-that-he-chairs

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, while it's not illegal it does raise an unnecessary ethical cloud.

[RogueBeaver]

Dewar could be a compromise candidate, depending on how things shake out.

[RogueBeaver]

So, any guesses as to how the first ballot might look from our resident Dippers?

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair winning easily? If so, you'll be a prophet by bucking the pro-Topp punditocracy Teddy.

[RogueBeaver]

There hasn't been an NDP leadership election in nearly a decade, but all the evidence suggests that Mulcair hasn't broken through in English Canada. I still think 1) Topp 2) Nash 3) Mulcair 4) Dewar on the first ballot. Beyond that I'm not predicting, because I know nothing of the NDP's internal dynamics.

[RogueBeaver]

Would Topp and Nash try to block him, as Rae and Iggy failed to do with Dion 6 years ago for the Grits? I'd be shocked if someone got an absolute majority on the first ballot.

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair also goes against both the ideological and cultural grain of the party though. Would a party which has always picked happy warriors want a brawler like Mulcair? Especially one who's an explicit centre-leftist rather than a social democrat?

[RogueBeaver]

Establishment support. Beyond that, I don't think he has much base traction.

[RogueBeaver]

So Mulcair, Nash and Dewar are the frontrunners?

[RogueBeaver]

If the final ballot came down to Mulcair v. Nash, would an ABM movement spring up or would he win because one didn't organize (think Dion '06)?

[RogueBeaver]

It wouldn't be an issue in the NDP race, but regrettably might be one in the general.

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/01/16/ndps-mulcair-will-keep-french-citizenship

[RogueBeaver]

Liberals fear Mulcair.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201201/16/01-4486501-direction-du-npd-les-liberaux-craignent-lelection-de-mulcair.php

[RogueBeaver]

I met Mulcair about 3 years ago. Let's just say he's an... interesting conversationalist, but a lot calmer than the ROC media would have you believe.

[RogueBeaver]

Did you oppose Dion's '06 candidacy for that reason? Of all the things to criticize Mulcair for... that should be near the bottom of the list.

[RogueBeaver]

At any rate, the PM's statement shows he's hardly ruling out a variant of "just visiting" for use by the Permanent Campaign if Mulcair wins. Ditto for Rae.

[RogueBeaver]

That'd be pretty desperate of them, especially considering the subtext would be "a wife can't have differing political opinions from her husband's." In an NDP race, no less. That said, Mulcair's was always on the left of a centre/centre-left PLQ.

[RogueBeaver]

TGP: I understand the case as well, but forgive me for thinking that Topp would at least be moving the party to Layton's tactical left (can't recall Layton using the words "tax increase" WRT personal income tax in either '08 or '11) if he won. As for Quebec, our punditocracy flirted with Topp for a while, and I'd still give him a slight edge in their hearts over Mulcair. Whether or not Quebec Dippers agree with CSD, I don't know.