Obama: 226
Thune: 224
With no tossup's, I'd give Thune Florida and Wisconsin, and give Obama Nevada, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
Flip Iowa with Minnesota and I'd agree. I'd say that under this scenario, Obama would hold every 2008 state except North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, and perhaps Ohio, but still win.
Thune is largely a "meh" candidate for me. I prefer Governors in general, but Thune has no track record at all of note in the Senate and is generally just a good-looking suit. I want to see some substance and some character before he becomes the nominee.
