If the Senate ends up 50-50

[Psychic Octopus]

Lieberman would have nothing to lose from switching, really. A case can be made that he is actually better liked among Republicans then Democrats, plus there is no way he is winning his primary in 2012, after opposing Obama. I'm not sure whether he would go through with it, but it definitely is a possibility.

[Psychic Octopus]

Lieberman would have nothing to lose from switching, really. A case can be made that he is actually better liked among Republicans then Democrats, plus there is no way he is winning his primary in 2012, after opposing Obama. I'm not sure whether he would go through with it, but it definitely is a possibility.

Per my intuition, it was more of a possibility for Joe to caucus with the GOP before folks like Castle, Simmons, and Campbell were eliminated.

Perhaps, but I don't really see why their elimination would make him hesitate to do so, especially if the GOP makes a deal allowing him to keep his beloved chairmanship.

[Psychic Octopus]

What about Snowe?  Obama and company could make noise about negotiations with her in order to keep Lieberman in line if he threatened to switch.  She probably has even less to lose by switching, especially if LePage wins this fall.  

She could get Spectered, but that would be much less likely if she were the deciding vote for control of the chamber.  Of course you could also argue that she wouldn't get Castled if she was Republican #51, but Castle himself very well could have been Republican #51 this year...      

Possible, I guess, but Snowe is still personally popular in Maine if I recall correctly, and that could give her hope in 2012. Also, they can't offer Snowe much, because Snowe would become the Chairwoman of the Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship if the GOP assumes control, and wouldn't get the position if she switched and became a Democrat. Snowe might switch if her position is hopeless and the Democrats are willing to accept her as their candidate, though.

Still I agree, I think Snowe will either get primaried or retire in 2012, unless the national environment is different.

[Psychic Octopus]

Whoa, what? Specter was facing a loss in the general even if he got out of a primary (he wouldn't have). Snowe will cruise to victory. The establishment will do a lot more to keep a sitting Senator than they did for even Mike Castle. They had a chance to do this in 2006 and didn't despite the CfG targeting others. Collins hasn't been seriously challenged either and I see no reason for that to happen. It was clear Murkowski was in trouble after Daddy went down. Sitting Senator since 1994 gives you a certain stature that doesn't come with being simply an establishment supported candidate for Senate.

Not neccessarily from the vantage point of spring 2009. Back then it was very concievable that he would win re-election, and most Democratic insiders believed it. I'm not too sure about Snowe surviving based on the RINO hunt, and she is, of course, the most prominent "RINO." While I do not know many conservatives outside of LePage that would challenge her, people come out of the woodwork. But certainly, the establishment will see this one coming, and definitely will attempt to prop up Snowe. I am not a soothsayer. I just think that at this point, seeing "safe" candidates go down left and right, that it isn't hard to imagine Snowe being removed.

[Psychic Octopus]

Whoa, what? Specter was facing a loss in the general even if he got out of a primary (he wouldn't have). Snowe will cruise to victory. The establishment will do a lot more to keep a sitting Senator than they did for even Mike Castle. They had a chance to do this in 2006 and didn't despite the CfG targeting others. Collins hasn't been seriously challenged either and I see no reason for that to happen. It was clear Murkowski was in trouble after Daddy went down. Sitting Senator since 1994 gives you a certain stature that doesn't come with being simply an establishment supported candidate for Senate.

Not neccessarily from the vantage point of spring 2009. Back then it was very concievable that he would win re-election, and most Democratic insiders believed it. I'm not too sure about Snowe surviving based on the RINO hunt, and she is, of course, the most prominent "RINO." While I do not know many conservatives outside of LePage that would challenge her, people come out of the woodwork. But certainly, the establishment will see this one coming, and definitely will attempt to prop up Snowe. I am not a soothsayer. I just think that at this point, seeing "safe" candidates go down left and right, that it isn't hard to imagine Snowe being removed.

What "safe" candidates?

LePage wouldn't challenge her.

Democrats had a target on Specter for 2010 and he would've likely lost to a D if not an R. Well, he did lose to a D.

Castle, Murkowski, etc.

Yeah, LePage will be Governor, but like I said, people come out of the woodwork. We'll see though.

Hmm, that is interesting. If Specter had won the Republican nomination this year (not happening) I wonder how he would be faring against Sestak.

[Psychic Octopus]

Whoa, what? Specter was facing a loss in the general even if he got out of a primary (he wouldn't have). Snowe will cruise to victory. The establishment will do a lot more to keep a sitting Senator than they did for even Mike Castle. They had a chance to do this in 2006 and didn't despite the CfG targeting others. Collins hasn't been seriously challenged either and I see no reason for that to happen. It was clear Murkowski was in trouble after Daddy went down. Sitting Senator since 1994 gives you a certain stature that doesn't come with being simply an establishment supported candidate for Senate.

Not neccessarily from the vantage point of spring 2009. Back then it was very concievable that he would win re-election, and most Democratic insiders believed it. I'm not too sure about Snowe surviving based on the RINO hunt, and she is, of course, the most prominent "RINO." While I do not know many conservatives outside of LePage that would challenge her, people come out of the woodwork. But certainly, the establishment will see this one coming, and definitely will attempt to prop up Snowe. I am not a soothsayer. I just think that at this point, seeing "safe" candidates go down left and right, that it isn't hard to imagine Snowe being removed.

What "safe" candidates?

LePage wouldn't challenge her.

Democrats had a target on Specter for 2010 and he would've likely lost to a D if not an R. Well, he did lose to a D.

Castle, Murkowski, etc.

Yeah, LePage will be Governor, but like I said, people come out of the woodwork. We'll see though.

Hmm, that is interesting. If Specter had won the Republican nomination this year (not happening) I wonder how he would be faring against Sestak.

Castle... he lost the nomination to someone who won the nomination in 2008 already. Not as big as you all make it out to be. The whole her being a total moron thing is what complicates it.

Murkowski... look what happened to Daddy.

This is nothing new, happens all the time. These candidates aren't safe. Murkowski has never broken 50% in Alaska.

Castle was percieved as a lock for the nomination, and I can't picture many people thinking that Murkowski would go down. I'm talking about the primaries, not the general. And I actually support Joe Miller, and I am glad that Murkowski went down. What I'm trying to say is that we shouldn't assume that Snowe will be the nominee, when other candidates have gone down with similar beliefs to her. A significant help to her will be LePage's endorsement, and luckily for her she was two years to prepare for her primary.