Can Blanche Lincoln win? Or is she roadkill? (user search)
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  Can Blanche Lincoln win? Or is she roadkill? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: What is Blanche Lincoln's total going to be on election night?
#1
Win, 50-55%
#2
Win, 45-49%
#3
Lose, 42-49%
#4
Lose, 35-41%
#5
Lose, 29-34%
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results


Author Topic: Can Blanche Lincoln win? Or is she roadkill?  (Read 9060 times)
Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,948
United States


« on: October 02, 2010, 07:24:50 PM »

This is somewhat depressing. You guys definitely won't be having fun on election night, when she is absolutely annihilated. You guys might want to take a look at this. And this.
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Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,948
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2010, 07:34:41 PM »

Psychic Octopus-

Those two data sets were contaminated with methodologically unsound polls.

Rasmussen is not "methodologically unsound," but in any case, take a look at the numbers. Lincoln is down big, has never once led, and the only way she could recover is if Boozman had a major scandal. And even then, I'd find it unlikely that she would win. If you don't like Rasmussen or TalkBusiness, take a look at PPP and the others.

Oh, and I prefer NiK. Smiley
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Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,948
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2010, 07:43:16 PM »

Psychic Octopus-

Those two data sets were contaminated with methodologically unsound polls.

Rasmussen is not "methodologically unsound," but in any case, take a look at the numbers. Lincoln is down big, has never once led, and the only way she could recover is if Boozman had a major scandal. And even then, I'd find it unlikely that she would win. If you don't like Rasmussen or TalkBusiness, take a look at PPP and the others.

Oh, and I prefer NiK. Smiley

We've had other reliable pollsters soince PPP looked at the race, like Ispos and MD.

And they both have Lincoln trailing by double digits...
Logged
Psychic Octopus
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,948
United States


« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2010, 07:52:15 PM »

Psychic Octopus-

Those two data sets were contaminated with methodologically unsound polls.

Rasmussen is not "methodologically unsound," but in any case, take a look at the numbers. Lincoln is down big, has never once led, and the only way she could recover is if Boozman had a major scandal. And even then, I'd find it unlikely that she would win. If you don't like Rasmussen or TalkBusiness, take a look at PPP and the others.

Oh, and I prefer NiK. Smiley

We've had other reliable pollsters soince PPP looked at the race, like Ispos and MD.

and they both have Lincoln trailing by double digits...

but the trend is clearly in her favor...

Well, I take most polls into account, unlike you, and even if they were incorrect, there is no trend in her favor, since one poll does not a trend make. The last Mason Dixon had the same numbers, and the last TalkBusiness actually increased. Even so, with the national environment being the way it is, Lincoln's chances of returning to the Senate are incredibly slim.

But more importantly, why would you even want Lincoln to return to the Senate? Huh
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