McCain vs. Obama 2008, with a strong economy.

[Psychic Octopus]

Let's say that, against all reason, the economy is strong and healthy in 2008, at rates similar to the mid to late '90s. The DOW Jones is on a steady track of growth, and unemployment is around four percent. Basically, a healthy and intact economy is in the background to 2008. The deficit and national debt are smaller on election day, but still fairly large.

In 2008, the Republicans nominate John McCain and Sarah Palin, and the Democrats nominate Barack Obama and Joe Biden. With a strong economy, how different is the election?

[Psychic Octopus]

I don't see how Obama wins here, even narrowly. McCain may have picked Palin, but he could've outtalked Obama on Iraq, who would've had to backtrack with the success of the surge.

[Psychic Octopus]

Strong economy or not, the Republicans were going to lose in '08. I mean, look at our recent federal election in 2007. The Australian economy was going gangbusters; unemployment at 33 year lows, inflation at 2-3%, etc and yet Rudd still managed to win comprehensively. So, in spite of the specifications of the scenario, Obama would win, albeit by a smaller margin. Maybe 291-247 or there abouts.

I'm not sure If I follow, you mean even if the economy was as good as I projected? I can see an Obama victory, but I can't make it out (despite Sarah Palin) to be predestined that the Republicans were going to lose, especially with a candidate as 'strong' as McCain.

Admittedly, though, I know very little about Australian politics.

[Psychic Octopus]

For one thing, the likelihood that the economy would be that strong minus the finical crisis is slim within itself.

Most likely, the economy would have stilled slowed, and eventually stagnated. Of course, the crisis that happened in real life might not have happened, but, I don't believe that the economy would have been that strong without the crisis.

Well it isn't supposed to be realistic, it's supposed to be very, very unlikely as I mentioned before hand, with Clinton-like levels of growth.

[Psychic Octopus]

Interesting scenario. I would expect that Hillary would do marginally better, but in the end I'd see McCain winning by a 51-48 margin, and not a 53-46 or such margin.