The 20 year landslide, will it happen again? (user search)
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  The 20 year landslide, will it happen again? (search mode)
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Author Topic: The 20 year landslide, will it happen again?  (Read 2221 times)
King
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« on: August 03, 2004, 05:31:57 PM »
« edited: August 03, 2004, 05:33:32 PM by King »
Every 20 years since 1904 there has been landslide of electoral votes:

1904 - Roosevelt (R) defeats Parker (D) with 70% of the electoral college

1924 - Coolidge (R) defeats Davis (D) with 71% of the electoral college

1944 - Roosevelt (D) defeats Dewey (R) with 81% of the electoral college

1964 - Johnson (D) defeats Goldwater (R) with 90% of the electoral college

1984 - Reagan (R) defeats Mondale (D)  with 97% of the electoral college

If this happens again it will have to be this year. Will it and if so Bush or Kerry?

Of these 5 landslides, 3 were a Republican and 2 were a Democratic.
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King
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« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2004, 05:46:42 PM »
« Edited: August 03, 2004, 05:49:02 PM by King »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on August 03, 2004, 05:39:27 PM
I have always said Bush is going to win easily this November. Remember guys the election is November 2nd, not tomorrow.

True, also the 1944 landslide: Dewey lead Roosevelt by 2% at this time, so a close election doesn't rule out landslide.
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King
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« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2004, 05:54:21 PM »
Quote from: Tredrick on August 03, 2004, 05:37:20 PM
The landslide has also gotten bigger every time.  Bush or Kerry would need to win every EV but 12 or less.  I don't see that happening.

The pattern (2 R, 2 D) requires it to be a Bush landslide.

A landslide is possible, but unlikely.  I think the trend was a 20th Centruy thing and is over now.

If only Mondale had won Pennsylvania, then Bush would would only need to get 500...(win everything except New York, DC, and Rhode Island)...
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King
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« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2004, 05:56:56 PM »
Quote from: Boss Tweed on August 03, 2004, 05:55:19 PM
Quote from: King on August 03, 2004, 05:31:57 PM
Every 20 years since 1904 there has been landslide of electoral votes:

1904 - Roosevelt (R) defeats Parker (D) with 70% of the electoral college

1924 - Coolidge (R) defeats Davis (D) with 71% of the electoral college

1944 - Roosevelt (D) defeats Dewey (R) with 81% of the electoral college

1964 - Johnson (D) defeats Goldwater (R) with 90% of the electoral college

1984 - Reagan (R) defeats Mondale (D)  with 97% of the electoral college

If this happens again it will have to be this year. Will it and if so Bush or Kerry?

Of these 5 landslides, 3 were a Republican and 2 were a Democratic.


What do the elections of 1904, 1924, 1944, etc. have to do with 2004?

Nothing...its just they followed the same trend...
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