There Is No 'Blue Wall'

[King]

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

[King]

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

The GOP can win 65% of the white vote....with all the race baiting going on currently, I predict they win 70% in 2016

LOL

[King]

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

Given the rumors that Hillary plans on making Affirmative Action a center piece of her campaign, 65% might not be to far off.

Rumors by who? A guy rambling on the street corner?

[King]

The Blue Wall is a popular vote wall not an electoral college one. Obviously if Romney won the PV by 4%, he'd win all those states.

But in order to win the PV by 4%, with anti-immigration, anti-welfare, anti-minority rhetoric, they'd have to carry 65% of the white vote. Good luck.

The GOP can win 65% of the white vote....with all the race baiting going on currently, I predict they win 70% in 2016

wanna bet?

70% is too much for 2016, but very doable by 2032

At 70% white, you're basically asking Bill Maher and his audience to start voting Republican. There's no way the GOP can hit that threshold with whites. Even in 2014 landslide, they only won 60%.

[King]

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention how Nate is plagiarizing himself from 4 years ago:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/magazine/nate-silver-handicaps-2012-election.html

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It's always 50-50!

[King]

What do you think the odds are dear?

I think 99% Clinton, 1% GOP is fair at the moment, sweetheart.

[King]

did you happen to notice what happened to the Asian vote in 2014?

The GOP did do better with Asians in 2014, but not as good as advertised. It was only a 10 point swing from 40% in 2010 midterm Asians to 50%. Presidential year Asian vote is more locked into the Democrats. However, I will give you that it would not be out of bounds to expect the 76% support Obama received to go down with Hillary.

The problem with the change in the Asian vote is that their concentration isn't in swing states. They live mostly California, Texas, Washington, Illinois, and New York. It doesn't really matter to a victory strategy.

Using this handy dandy tool, one notes that if Asian support is moved from 76% D to 50%, no states flip; and if moved from 76% to 0%, the Democrats still win the EC 286-252.