Obama would lose all but DC in this case. Even Hawaii will turn.
The interesting thing historically is that Hoover actually did admirably well given his circumstances. He won 6 states and held Roosevelt under 60% of the popular vote. He did better than McGovern, Mondale, or Goldwater. Perhaps it could be that Roosevelt's 57.4% is the absolute ceiling for a non-incumbent? Even Eisenhower, who had the popularity of a deity in 1952, only managed 55%.
60% is just a difficult number to achieve. It's not like it happens frequently for incumbents. Popular incumbents like Eisenhower and Reagan couldn't do it either.
