Ben Romney
Hillary2012
Jr. Member
Posts: 395
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« on: November 17, 2010, 06:42:30 PM » |
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The internals of the Virginia poll actually look pretty sound.
The female/male breakdown in 2004 and 2008 was 54 F and 46 M. This poll was 55/45
Black turnout in 2004 and 2008 was 21% and 20% respectively. The PPP poll had 18% black turnout.
The electorate is more Democratic than in 2004, but less Democratic than the one in 2008.
The electorate is more conservative than the electorate in 2008.
In addition the PPP poll has turnout of voters 18 – 29 years in age at 8%. It was 17% in 2004 and 21% in 2008. So they actually underpolled young voters.
So somebody explain to me how this poll is trash?
The key thing to remember about Virginia is that unlike many of the states in the deep south with high black populations, Virginia has a very liberal base of support in Northern Virginia that makes up a large chunk of the population in addition to various liberal pockets dispersed throughout the state in different college towns.
The reason 2009 and 2010 looked so different is because the electorate was much whiter, older, and more conservative. That won’t happen in 2012.
But two years is a huge amount of time. Things change by the month. So a poll two years out doesn’t carry much weight. However, keep this in mind when considering these polls is that the turnout models will be much different than they were the past two elections.
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