I don't feel like slogging through this entire thread to find if it's been asked, but would Scott's chances improve dramatically if he ran as an independent with Republican support? See Harry Byrd for a historical example.
No. The not-like-other-Republicans-Republican is still a popular brand in Vermont, and in New England more generally. Not unlike the not-like-other-Democrats-Democrat in states like MT, WV or KY.
I don't see him running for Senate in 2022 or 2024 and, unless it's an open seat, I don't see him winning.