Massachusetts Governor 2018

[tpfkaw]

If a Republican is President, this could be a close race (and Dems might get an A-lister to run, probably Seth Moulton). If a Democrat is, and barring any scandals, then Baker is likely safe. I don't think it's possible to do better than Weld, however.

[tpfkaw]

a primary challenge from a right-winger.

No chance. Maybe if he breaks his no new taxes pledge, but even then I doubt it.

(Some perennial candidate like Christy Mihos likely will challenge him, but they won't get past the convention).

[tpfkaw]

Either Kennedy or Moulton would be the Democratic candidate if they jumped in. If they both ran, I feel like Kennedy would be a better idea for Democrats, as Moulton's district is much more competitive. If neither ran, it's Safe Republican, with Kim Driscoll having the potential to lose worse than Mark Roosevelt. On the third party side, Evan Falchuk is running again.

Neither Kennedy nor Moulton are going to give up safe House seats (Moulton's seat isn't really that competitive) for a governor's race that they probably wouldn't win. I mean, I'd happily vote for them, but they wouldn't want to take that risk.

They wouldn't have to give up their House seats.

[tpfkaw]

Either Kennedy or Moulton would be the Democratic candidate if they jumped in. If they both ran, I feel like Kennedy would be a better idea for Democrats, as Moulton's district is much more competitive. If neither ran, it's Safe Republican, with Kim Driscoll having the potential to lose worse than Mark Roosevelt. On the third party side, Evan Falchuk is running again.

Neither Kennedy nor Moulton are going to give up safe House seats (Moulton's seat isn't really that competitive) for a governor's race that they probably wouldn't win. I mean, I'd happily vote for them, but they wouldn't want to take that risk.

They wouldn't have to give up their House seats.

Don't reps need to give up their seats to run for governor in a normal year?

Nope, and I'm not even sure it would be constitutional to prohibit running for both offices simultaneously, since one is a federal office and the other is a state office.