Poland election - October 25 2015

[tpfkaw]

As I might expect in any country, nobody really represents my views.

Korwin: 32.9
.N: 20.1
PO: 11.7
Kukiz: 9.6
PSL: -3.8
PiS: -10.8
ZL: -21.3
Razem: -26.5

[tpfkaw]

There are a variety of reasons, some unpleasant and bigoted, and some quite understandable, why you aren't going to find a whole lot of philo-Semitism among Poles, especially of the right-wing persuasion.

[tpfkaw]

Korwin supports PO?

I guess that even though PO is not socially conservative as with the Korwin party their closer on economics.

As I understand it they don't, but they're unlikely to be over the threshold.

[tpfkaw]

Saw it before exit polls. I wonder if when KORWiN will enter the parliament PiS then will lose it majority.

What would be the most likely government then? PiS minority with outside support from Kukiz? I assume Korwin would prefer to be in opposition if possible.

[tpfkaw]

As for now we are waiting for the Warsaw and UK. UK have some massive delays.

Should both be very PO/ZL (relatively speaking), I assume?

[tpfkaw]

UK rather Kukiz/KORWiN

Huh. They'd be voting against their own interests by choosing Euroskeptic parties. And one would think living in the UK (where they overwhelmingly support Labour) would've made them more leftist.

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Both PO and PiS are higher than the national average? So then minor parties don't get much support there?

[tpfkaw]

So 16.21% of voters, or 2,463,181 of them, were disenfranchised by the threshold. If the 459 contested seats were allocated proportionately without any thresholds the results would've been very different:

Seats|Party
--------------------------
 174|Law and Justice
 112|Civic Platform
  41|Kukiz
  35|Modern
  35|United Left
  23|Polish People's Party
  22|Korwin
  16|Together
   1|Zbigniew Stonoga (right-wing perennial candidate)
   1|German Minority

PiS would need either a grand or three-party coalition to have a majority in the Sejm. PiS + Kukiz + PSL (238 seats) would be pretty much the only plausible government, and would probably be quite a bit more inclined towards preserving status quo than the real-life PiS majority is going to be, if for no other reason than that it's hard to forge consensus amongst three fairly disparate parties.

[tpfkaw]

Question: Why was Szydlo made PM candidate for PiS and not Kacynski? (I think I spelled those right?)

Too polarizing a figure.

[tpfkaw]

Why are Poles in the USA so pro-PiS?

Emigrated during or shortly after the Communist era. PiS's big issue is prosecuting/barring from office former Communist officials.

[tpfkaw]

But actually as far as I know Poles in US usually votes on Democrats.

Don't know about newcomer Poles; but in the past, Polish-Americans have tended to be classic "Reagan Democrats".

These days, any right-ish lean might be a combination of the "megachurchy" aspect of Polish Catholicism and a deep-seeded economic libertarianism, i.e. Poles *really* hitting the ground running in rejecting Communism.

Wikipedia has a whole article about the Polish-American vote, including presidential election results:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish-American_vote

Some of those seem dubious. Like, surely George Wallace won some votes from Polish-Americans in 1968, and I find it very hard to believe Herbert Hoover won Poles (and by such a large margin) in 1928. And also it's pretty hard to believe that Obama won Poles by 12 points in 2012 while losing whites by 19 along with almost every white subgroup (i.e. he lost white females aged 18-29).

[tpfkaw]

Does anyone know why the Germans weren't expelled from that one region?