When each state was last a "swing state."

[tpfkaw]

Defined as being within 10% of the national result.

2012: 90% green

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin

2008: 80% green

Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Washington

2004: 70% green

Arizona, Arkansas

2000: 60% green

Maine, Louisiana, Tennessee, Vermont, West Virginia

1996: 50% green

California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Kentucky, Maryland

1992: 40% green

Hawaii, South Dakota, Texas

1988: 30% green

Kansas, North Dakota, Oklahoma

1984: 30% red

Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina

1980: 40% red

Massachusetts, New York

1976: 50% red

Rhode Island

1972: 60% red

Alaska

1968: 70% red

None

1964: 80% red

Wyoming

1960: 90% red

Idaho, Utah

The last time Nebraska was within 10% of the national result was 1936!

[tpfkaw]

Why are we defining "swing state" as within 10% of the final result? I see that it's mostly accurate, but I don't think Washington was a swing state in 2008.

Because we'd have to go way far back for quite a few states if I defined it more narrowly. Washington might have been more competitive if 2008 were an even year rather than a Dem wave year (within 10% of the national result, not within 10%). It was about as close to the national result as Montana was that year.

[tpfkaw]

Cool map.

On a semi-related but slightly off-topic note, Vermont is the state that most perplexes me.  People can give me the "yada-yada" all day long about how the GOP has gone crazy and used to be more moderate or how the hippies and MA/CT/NY liberals moved in over the years, but it doesn't add up that between the 1970s (generously early) it went from being a very Republican state to being one of the bluest today.  For YEARS, they elected fiscally conservative politicians, a few of which were quite socially conservative, too.  That state's politics have had some of the most amazing shifts ever.

Less than half the population of Vermont was born there, and 90% of the newcomers are the sandals and Subarus crowd.