Would Clinton have won the white female vote in 2008?

[tpfkaw]

It depends on whether she has her drawn-out primary battle with Obama or not.  It tends to be forgotten today, but at the start of the '08 campaign Hillary was essentially the Democratic version of Sarah Palin - perceived as ideologically extreme and unpopular to non-Democrats.  She initially polled worse nationally than any other Democratic candidate.  It was only via her campaign against Obama that she was able to establish herself as a "moderate" and win the support of independent voters.  (Once again proving that politics is far more about perceptions than the actual issues).  So if she wins the nomination in a walk, then no, and she'd in fact probably perform under Obama's IRL result, whereas if she wins the nomination in a drawn-out battle like in '08, then probably yes.

[tpfkaw]

Ideologically extreme Democrats wouldn't come close to sweeping upstate New York like Clinton did.

I'm not saying that she was ideologically extreme (well, I think she is ideologically extreme if not in the sense of being a downwards wealth-redistributionist, but that's neither here nor there), nor am I saying she was perceived as such in New York, however, she was perceived as such nationally.

The early polling doesn't lie.

[tpfkaw]

You're actually citing a poll from mid-2006 to support your argument??

Fair enough, here are some polls from mid to late 2007.  Clinton loses Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey (!) to McCain.  Early polling from 2008 also had her losing Michigan, although there weren't any polls around this time in 2007.

It's amazing that people have such short memories.  If you look at discussions from 2007 on this very forum, all the Republicans are gloating over how Hillary is the next McGovern and how easy she'll be to defeat, and many of the Democrats are fretting over her candidacy and expressing the wish that Obama defeat her for the nomination because he was polling much better.