1. Federal Reserve policy results in 30-40% inflation.
2. World trade and investment grinds to a halt as American purchasing power goes down the drain and the US stock market crashes as everyone races to dump dollar-denominated assets.
3. As a result, major double dip recession with official unemployment numbers exceeding 20%.
4. Paul's message, having been proven correct, finally begins to resonate with voters.
5. Obama, whose personal popularity is hovering around 20% (just blacks and some of the remaining hipsters) launches a hyper-negative campaign against Ron Paul. It backfires, people think that Obama's trying to trick them and don't buy into it. As a side effect many people start to buy in to Paul's positions re entitlements, Civil Rights Act, foreign policy towards Israel etc.
6. Paul wins a landslide victory on election day, about 57-40, while winning well over 70% of the white vote. Obama is only saved in states with substantial urban machines (VT and ME-01 really should be blue on that map...)
7. Democrats are crushed in the midterms receving only 38% of the vote but actually gain 6 seats, mainly because the Libertarian Party gets 14% and the Constitution Party gets 5%. Libertarian Party elects 9 representatives and a senator from Indiana, Constitution Party elects 3 representatives, one from Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming.
George Wallace wins:
