Predicting the 2016 Presidential Election by Congressional District

[Fuzzybigfoot]

So I made this map which predicts how each district will vote in the 2016 Presidential Election



Feel free to discuss and post your own! 


This map was also featured on our unofficial Facebook spin-off page.  Remember to follow us if you haven't already!

https://www.facebook.com/FuzzybigfootsHistoricalElectionMaps?ref=hl

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Good work.  You should try predicting the early primaries by CD as well.

Thank you.  Once we get closer to said election dates, I probably will.  

I do have a couple of suggestions on rating some of the districts.  Ark 2 I think should be put down to about a lean, Obama did come within 10 points in 2008 while losing state by nearly 20.  Others, I think NY 22 should be more of a tossup, with Hillary most likely on top of the ticket, maybe lowering chances of GOP wins in some of those Midwestern districts as well, but overall, extremely good map.

Thanks.  I thought about putting AR-2 as something other than "Safe GOP", but I think Hillary knows that the state as a whole is likely out of her reach and won't waste the time and money trying to win it.  And considering how Mark Pryor even lost the district (I think Miles said by about 6 percentages points or something), I doubt Hillary has a prayer.  

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Given the latest developments in the presidential nominating contests for both major parties (with Trump effectively being the presumptive nominee for the Republican party, and Hillary Clinton heavily favored to win the Democrat's nomination) , I've decided to update my 2016 Presidential Election by congressional district map.   Ratings for each congressional district are determined through current poll numbers (state and nationwide) as well as other variable such as demographics and past election results (off the top of my head).



Hillary Clinton: 217 Congressional Districts

Donald Trump: 199 Congressional Districts

Too close to call: 19 Congressional Districts

I would like to stress that this map is just a screenshot in time, and that a lot of things could change in the next 6 months yada yada yada, but due to Hillary's significant polling leads in recent weeks I believe that she is currently favored to win a majority of our nation's congressional districts.