If the Presidential Race is close, do any states swing to Obama?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

In many presidential election cycles, we've seen a few states shift to the party which loses substantial ground in the nation as a whole.


Although most states will swing GOP if the party picks up a large amount of the popular vote (in a close race), could any states could possibly swing towards Obama? If so, which states?



If I were to guess, maybe Arkansas or Tennessee (or some other Southern State) just because they've already shifted so Republican, it may be hard for them to shift more so.  


Maybe something in the Northeast (like New Jersey or New York) because terrorism isn't as large of an issue, plus suburban voters may be more alienated from the GOP due to the party's strong shift to the right. Although I think this outcome would be more unlikely than a Southern State shifting towards Obama.



These are just some ideas, of course.




Thoughts/opinions are appreciated.  

[Fuzzybigfoot]

The 2008 Presidential election was not a close one.  For the 2012 election, a close one practically ensures that President Obama loses Indiana, North Carolina, and at least two of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.

The anomaly of 2008 was that for the large gap in popular vote, Barack Obama won comparatively few electoral votes. With a similar percentage (53.5%) of the popular vote in 1944, FDR won  432 electoral votes, or 81% of the electoral votes. In 2008, President Obama won roughly 52.9% of the popular vote and 365 electoral votes (68%).  The difference? The states were less polarized in their voting patterns. Outside the Solid South (which generally didn't have free elections, anyway), FDR won only six states with more than 55% of the vote. But FDR lost only four states with more than 55% of the vote going to Dewey.

OK, there was a war on with an end in sight, the economy was in good shape, FDR was as known a political commodity as there ever was (except for his health), and regional polarization was slight. FDR didn't campaign much (he would be dead five months later) and left the electioneering to locals.

President Obama lost a bunch of states by margins over 10% while winning more with over 10%. Something like 175 electoral votes were decided by margins of 10% or less.  A 6% margin is usually  called quickly in the media unless the media want to wait until all states are in.

If state margins show reversion to the mean in 2012, then some of the monster margins by which President Obama won or lost shrink greatly. Halve the margins by which Barack Obama won Michigan and Kentucky (16% to 8% in both cases)  and you get some idea of what reversion to the mean would look like with President Obama still winning about 53% of the vote.

In 2012 people will better know what President Obama really is than they did in 2008. Some will find him a disappointment; some will find him less troublesome than he seemed. How voters behave will depend no less on who the Republican nominee is. If it is Romney, then I see the certainty of President Obama seeing some of his monster margins pared in some Northern states but some of the monster margins of loss also pared.    
 

With states going to or for Obama by margins less than 12% in 2008 (he's not going to lose Maryland or win Alabama) this is how they likely fall to him:

Nevada
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Hampshire
Virginia
Ohio
Florida
North Carolina
NE-02 (the Nebraska district that contains Greater Omaha)
Missouri
Georgia
Indiana
Montana
Arizona
Texas
South Carolina
South Dakota
North Dakota

I now consider Colorado more solidly Democratic than either Iowa, New Hampshire, or Wisconsin in view of the results of the 2010 election.
 

But would there be any states that would swing his way if the national vote was close?  If so, which ones?  I'm not asking if any McCain states will go for Obama in 2012. 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

If we define close election as an election with a closer popular vote margin than 2008, the most likely one by far would be AZ.  Without McCain on the ballot, AZ probably only votes 3 or 4 points right of the nation with presidential turnout.  The 2012 Republican would have to win bigger than Obama did in 2008 to maintain McCain's margin in the state.  That's not to say that Obama has any chance of winning AZ in a close election, but he won't be getting under 45% there.

Also, I could definitely see VA voting left of the national PV in 2012, but it would have to be really dramatic to be a "swing" toward him relative to 2008 if the 2012 election is a closer one.     

I thought about Arizona too.  I'm not sure if it could swing his way now considering the illegal immigration controversy, but you make a good point about the home state effect not being there.