Palin/Armey vs Obama/Biden

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I might flip Oklahoma, Alabama, Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho.  Maybe a few other Southern states too, many whites didn't vote for Obama because he was black (just look at some of the major Republican swings in those states from 2004 to 2008).  I think the popular vote would be closer, 60% would be increadibly hard for anyone on either side to reach due to polarization, even with two far right partisans on one ticket.


But other than that, the map is probably pretty accurate to what would happen.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

It's pretty hard to imagine any realistic scenario in which Barack Obama wins in 2012.

The map in the OP I assume must be a joke? The absolute worst I could see any GOPer doing would be winning around 14 states.

But Obama is toast, he's finished, so that doesn't apply no matter who the Republican nominee is.

No, Obama could have an approval rating of 30%, and would still beat Palin because she is Palin.

I agree.  Palin is already in the 30% range.   Plus, Obama isn't doing that horribly, Pollster.com (which takes the average of all the polls) shows his disapproval just slightly higher than his approval.  Plus, it's not like many other presidents had good approval ratings 2 years through their presidency.   People even thought that Reagan would loose.   

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Im not really sure even Palin would win Alaska.

Id see it happen more like this:

Yeah, that seems about right.  Obama could win Montana too, though. Kentucky would be a bit of a stretch, I think.  And I don't think many white people in Arkansas or Louisiania are ready to vote for a black man, but other than that the map is pretty good.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Im not really sure even Palin would win Alaska.

Id see it happen more like this:

Yeah, that seems about right.  Obama could win Montana too, though. Kentucky would be a bit of a stretch, I think.  And I don't think many white people in Arkansas or Louisiania are ready to vote for a black man, but other than that the map is pretty good.

The south isn't as biggoted as you seem to think; or more accurately those who vote in the south are not as biggoted as you think.

It depends, I don't say all whites were bigots, but I suspect there are at least quite a few.  A large number of southern counties shifted solidly into the Republican collum during an overall 9% shift to the Democrats nationwide.  Pretty odd, don't you think?  Even though white votes in genral voted for the Republican, the case was much more extreame in the South.  McCain got 80%+ of the white vote in Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiania.  And most of the other states he got around 70% or so of white voters.  In many other states, Republicans get in the 50% or low 60% range, which, in comarison to the numbers in several southern states, is much smaller. 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Im not really sure even Palin would win Alaska.

Id see it happen more like this:

Yeah, that seems about right.  Obama could win Montana too, though. Kentucky would be a bit of a stretch, I think.  And I don't think many white people in Arkansas or Louisiania are ready to vote for a black man, but other than that the map is pretty good.

The south isn't as biggoted as you seem to think; or more accurately those who vote in the south are not as biggoted as you think.

It depends, I don't say all whites were bigots, but I suspect there are at least quite a few.  A large number of southern counties shifted solidly into the Republican collum during an overall 9% shift to the Democrats nationwide.  Pretty odd, don't you think?  Even though white votes in genral voted for the Republican, the case was much more extreame in the South.  McCain got 80%+ of the white vote in Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiania.  And most of the other states he got around 70% or so of white voters.  In many other states, Republicans get in the 50% or low 60% range, which, in comarison to the numbers in several southern states, is much smaller. 

What those numbers say is that a large majority of southern whites are conservative, not racist.  You are right, there are some who are racist but they are a minority.  The number of racists that vote is an even more miniscule number.  Generally, and yes this is a blanket statement, racists are uneducated white trash uninterested in politics when it goes beyond parroting Rush Limbaugh to actually getting off the couch/out of the trailer and voting.

Alright,  but voting differences of that magnitude seems at least somewhat odd during a very Democratic year.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

328-210

This coincidentally is about the best case scenario I can see for Obama against any opponent.

You honestly think that Palin can win back Indiana and New Hampshire?  That would be more like the map for if Gingrich ran.

I honestly think that, with the sorry state the economy and the country will be in by 2012, even Palin will be able to defeat Obama. Democrats should be careful what they wish for in hoping Palin is the GOP nominee.

LOL, Pollster shows her Favorable to unfavorable numbers are at -15%.  Using the same standard, Obama's fv/ufv are at +5% on Pollster, which is different than his Job Approval (although his job approval is at -4%).   But Palin isn't holding office, so the fav/unfav is the only comparable standard.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

328-210

This coincidentally is about the best case scenario I can see for Obama against any opponent.

You honestly think that Palin can win back Indiana and New Hampshire?  That would be more like the map for if Gingrich ran.

I honestly think that, with the sorry state the economy and the country will be in by 2012, even Palin will be able to defeat Obama. Democrats should be careful what they wish for in hoping Palin is the GOP nominee.

LOL, Pollster shows her Favorable to unfavorable numbers are at -15%.  Using the same standard, Obama's fv/ufv are at +5% on Pollster, which is different than his Job Approval (although his job approval is at -4%).   But Palin isn't holding office, so the fav/unfav is the only comparable standard.

It won't matter who the opponent is.

Barack Obama will be as electable in 2012 as Herbert Hoover was in 1932.

Obama hasn't been claimed responsible for 20% unemployment like Hoover was.  Plus, compared to other presidents two years into their terms, he's actually doing okay.  Even compared to Clinton and Reagan.

And did the polls I listed mean anything?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

328-210

This coincidentally is about the best case scenario I can see for Obama against any opponent.

You honestly think that Palin can win back Indiana and New Hampshire?  That would be more like the map for if Gingrich ran.

I honestly think that, with the sorry state the economy and the country will be in by 2012, even Palin will be able to defeat Obama. Democrats should be careful what they wish for in hoping Palin is the GOP nominee.

LOL, Pollster shows her Favorable to unfavorable numbers are at -15%.  Using the same standard, Obama's fv/ufv are at +5% on Pollster, which is different than his Job Approval (although his job approval is at -4%).   But Palin isn't holding office, so the fav/unfav is the only comparable standard.

It won't matter who the opponent is.

Barack Obama will be as electable in 2012 as Herbert Hoover was in 1932.

Obama hasn't been claimed responsible for 20% unemployment like Hoover was.  Plus, compared to other presidents two years into their terms, he's actually doing okay.  Even compared to Clinton and Reagan.

And did the polls I listed mean anything?

No, they don't mean anything really. The election is in 2012, not 2010.

But they do.  It would be silly to think that Palin isn't incredibly unpopular, especially with all the polls showing that people distrust her ability and ideas.  It is very unlikely the economy will tank much further between now and 2012, which will badly hurt Sarah Palin's chances of election.  Even with the economy, it is obvious Obama holds a clear advantage over her.