KY, MS etc. Results Thread (user search)
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  KY, MS etc. Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: KY, MS etc. Results Thread  (Read 46914 times)
Del Tachi
Republican95
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Posts: 18,010
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

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« on: November 05, 2019, 10:42:54 PM »

Tishomingo County fully reported (ancestral Blue Dog/Hood turf) and Hood is +11 over Clinton and +7 over Espy. 
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Del Tachi
Republican95
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*****
Posts: 18,010
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2019, 11:57:56 PM »

Hughes spent the last 2 years running for LG and is going to do worse than the no-name Dems who ran further down the ballot.  Sheesh. 
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Del Tachi
Republican95
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*****
Posts: 18,010
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2019, 11:14:31 AM »

Hughes spent the last 2 years running for LG and is going to do worse than the no-name Dems who ran further down the ballot.  Sheesh. 

I know right?

One_J was wondering if you were going to pop up on Election Night, considering we have a small handful of informed posters from MS including yourself and Del Tachi that are likely to actually pop up on election nights....

What's your current take on the election results you are seeing from the ground thus far?

Granted, I always put a caveat when it comes to lower turnout elections, without seeing where turnout patterns are and historical results by precinct.

2020 I would expect turnout to be much higher within MS than within a GOV election.

Key question for 2020, would be where will turnout improve at higher levels, considering that the MS-GOV election was much closer than many might have expected....

Based on the margins, this is a good result for Democrats.  Based out on the outcome, its a bad result for Democrats in that they lost their only statewide office and didn't make any significant gains in the legislature.

Generally, Hoods seems to have improved over Espy with educated Whites + some of his ancestral NEMS homeland, while falling behind in majority Black areas.  Hood netted 40k votes in Hinds County last night while Espy netted 53k there in the runoff last year.  Definitely seems like there were some Black Democrats left on the table that Hood could have turned-out better.

Unrelated, but Democrats look like they'll gain HD-64.  This is the closest thing that MS has to a "Romney-Clinton" suburban district.  Democrats will also gain SD-22 (majority Black district that has historically elected moderate Republicans).  Dems will probably each have one seat on the Transportation and Public Service commissions as well.
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Del Tachi
Republican95
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*****
Posts: 18,010
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2019, 11:21:27 AM »

2019 Average statewide performance

Republican: 55.5%
Democratic: 43.0%

5 counties voted Democratic on average - Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin, Elliott, and Rowan.

2015 Average statewide performance

Republican: 54.0%
Democratic: 45.4%

Kentucky is still over 40% rural. The national trends are still prevalent here. Thats why it was so amazing Beshear actually won last night.


I think it shows that downballot Republicans who can get under the radar and talk about something other than Trump can still court suburban moderates, even when those voters are turning out to vote Democrat at the top of the ticket. 
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Del Tachi
Republican95
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*****
Posts: 18,010
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2019, 11:59:18 AM »

Reeves did even worse than Hyde-Smith. Wasn't expecting that tbh. Hood did even better than Espy in Hinds County and flipped Madison County

2019 Gov: Reeves 5.7%

2018 Sen Runoff: Hyde-Smith 7.8%





Hood got 47.1% of the two-party vote, so he did about 1 point better than Espy in the runoff.
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