Political future of former GA House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D-Atlanta)

[Del Tachi]

I have a feeling she'll pass on the senate race this year. I can see her going for a rematch with Kemp, but I think that'd be a bad idea.

and she shouldn't.  Perdue is a lot worse of a candidate than Kemp.

lolno.  Perdue's approvals in GA are higher than Kemp's or Trump's, and he won't have to tack right to win a GOP primary in 2020 (thus alienating ATL suburbanites).  Perdue is good as gold.  He'd beat Stacey something like 52-46.


Anyway, it looks like Abrams is gunning to run for Senate in 2020 (she'll lose) and then challenge Kemp in a rematch in 2022 (she'll lose).  By that time Georgia Dems won't be able to stand her, but national Democrats might prop her up in GA-05 when Lewis retires.

Here's an interesting piece of local knowledge:  Keisha Lance Bottoms and Stacey Abrams do not get along, at all.  It's no secret that KLB was supportive of Stacey Evans during the Democratic Primary, and she never really cranked out her ATL machine for Abrams in the general election.  For that reason, Stacey Abrams becoming mayor of Atlanta would require her probably mobilizing anti-Bottoms/Reed Democrats, becoming somewhat more of a "Justice Dem" in the mold of Kwame Abernathy or Kwanzaa Hall, or somehow mobilizing the Buckhead vote?  Seems very unlikely.

[Del Tachi]

I have a feeling she'll pass on the senate race this year. I can see her going for a rematch with Kemp, but I think that'd be a bad idea.

and she shouldn't.  Perdue is a lot worse of a candidate than Kemp.

lolno.  Perdue's approvals in GA are higher than Kemp's or Trump's, and he won't have to tack right to win a GOP primary in 2020 (thus alienating ATL suburbanites).  Perdue is good as gold.  He'd beat Stacey something like 52-46.


Anyway, it looks like Abrams is gunning to run for Senate in 2020 (she'll lose) and then challenge Kemp in a rematch in 2022 (she'll lose).  By that time Georgia Dems won't be able to stand her, but national Democrats might prop her up in GA-05 when Lewis retires.

Here's an interesting piece of local knowledge:  Keisha Lance Bottoms and Stacey Abrams do not get along, at all.  It's no secret that KLB was supportive of Stacey Evans during the Democratic Primary, and she never really cranked out her ATL machine for Abrams in the general election.  For that reason, Stacey Abrams becoming mayor of Atlanta would require her probably mobilizing anti-Bottoms/Reed Democrats, becoming somewhat more of a "Justice Dem" in the mold of Kwame Abernathy or Kwanzaa Hall, or somehow mobilizing the Buckhead vote?  Seems very unlikely.

How is Kemp in any way more appealing to the suburbs than Kemp or Trump? This is the clown that advocated reducing legal immigration.

And there was next to no ticket splitting in any of the suburbs in 2018 in the statewide races. All the Republicans got BTFO in Cobb and Gwinnett, even incumbent office holders. I’m thoroughly unconvinced that the “moderate Republican Abrams voters” (which I doubt exist in substantial numbers) are dying to turn around and vote for Perdue when nearly all her 2018 voters voted Dem downballot too.

It has more to do with the non-negligible number of well-off, suburban White voters in Buckhead, Druid Hills, Vinings, Johns Creek and other “ITP” moderate Republicans who will vote for Perdue despite not turning out/voting Dem downballot in 2016/18.  Trump/Kemp were a specific anathema to these types of voters, but Perdue has higher approvals among this group.  It’s analagous to how Mark Kirk ran ahead of Trump in the Collar counties.  I don’t think it’s a matter of Perdue being able to somehow “flip” the new Brown and Black voters in the increasingly diverse OTP suburbs, it’s about him having more personal appeal/a connection/better turnout operation in suburban Atlanta to begin with. 

I agree that Gwinnett and Cobb counties will go Dem in 2020, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t tens of thousands of Republican votes Trump and Kemp left on the table.   

EDIT:  Case in point, Perdue has a 46 percent approval rating (including 40 percent among independents) compared to 37 percent for Kemp and Trump. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-shows-deeply-divided-georgia-and-tough-numbers-for-kemp/8dqIoXp1j5o0kujop427PN/amp.html

[Del Tachi]

Quick, someone make a map comparing Trump% to Isakson% in 2016 to demonstrate the point that suburban Atlantans still love "moderate" Republicans.

[Del Tachi]

Quick, someone make a map comparing Trump% to Isakson% in 2016 to demonstrate the point that suburban Atlantans still love "moderate" Republicans.

Barksdale was a weak challenger with no electoral history. Why are you referencing a data point from before Trump won to prove that suburban Atlantans are still with the GOP post-Trump’s presidency? Democrats flipped 16 seats in both chambers of the state legislature in Metro Atlanta, Karen Handel got tossed out on her ass, Rob Woodall scraped by with less than 400 votes, and the NOBODY running in GA-11 still won the reliably red Cobb portion of the district.

There is nothing- No evidence to suggest these people will vote for Perdue. He will do worse than Kemp in Metro Atlanta. Bookmark this.

Just no, Perdue will run ahead of Trump in 2020.  Bookmark this.  Trump was unpopular in 2016 and did abysmally around Atlanta, yet Isakaon significantly outperformed him.  Perdue probably won’t overperform as much, but he doesn’t have to in order to win.

Do you really think 2018 is a good base year to use, given that it was a D+9 environment where a lot of Republicans (mostly of the more moderate, Perdue type) stayed home?  And let’s not forget, even given this stellar environment, Dems still didn’t win a single statewide office.  It’s not happening, especially not by retreading Abrams as the nominee and the continued rural trends towards the GOP.

[Del Tachi]

Here's an interesting piece of local knowledge:  Keisha Lance Bottoms and Stacey Abrams do not get along, at all.  It's no secret that KLB was supportive of Stacey Evans during the Democratic Primary, and she never really cranked out her ATL machine for Abrams in the general election.  For that reason, Stacey Abrams becoming mayor of Atlanta would require her probably mobilizing anti-Bottoms/Reed Democrats, becoming somewhat more of a "Justice Dem" in the mold of Kwame Abernathy or Kwanzaa Hall, or somehow mobilizing the Buckhead vote?  Seems very unlikely.

LOL. Abrams would win an election for Mayor handily. Voters don't care or even know about these silly factional disputes at City Hall.

Also LOL at the notion that Abrams who received the most votes for any Georgia Democrat would need the help of someone who has only had to turn out 46,000 votes in an off year runoff.

Local politics is much more of an "insider's game" than running for statewide office given the smaller, more connected voting/fundraising pool + limited access to free/national media.  Anyone who wants to be mayor of Atlanta (or any other large city, for that matter) has to spend time cultivating relationships with the relevant citizen groups, big $$$ city contractors, and city employees to have a credible shot.  I don't think Abrams has any interest in that, and even if she did I think she'd face an uphill battle.