MS-Mason Dixon: Hood (D) +2 (user search)
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  MS-Mason Dixon: Hood (D) +2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MS-Mason Dixon: Hood (D) +2  (Read 4053 times)
Del Tachi
Republican95
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Posts: 18,038
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

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« on: February 07, 2019, 12:35:08 PM »

Still Tossup/Tilt D (closer to Lean D than Pure Tossup, though)

As above posters have pointed out, Hood has won by large margins in good Republican years.  2019 will be a good Democratic year and Hood will have the benefit of the national media narrative being focused on the presidential race. 

I would also say that Reeves is a weak candidate just because he has played his hand with Metro Jackson and Gulf Coast Republicans too strongly, leaving him vulnerable to encroachment in the Northeast, Delta and the college towns.
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Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,038
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2019, 12:48:00 AM »

MS will never vote Democrat because despite the delusions of some here it is very, very INELASTIC. The idea of a Democrat clearing 50%, which they haven't done in a major statewide race (gubernatorial/senatorial) since 1987 is comical.

What's your hot take on the Realignment of 1987?

Fordice ousted Mabus in 1991 by focusing on affirmative action, it's clear that Republicans have exploited the racial tension in the state and made it virtually impossible for Dems to get the 30% of whites they would need to win statewide.

And Republicans just started exploiting racial tension in 1987?  Local Democrats just stopped around then?

When I said "since 1987", I meant that was the last time a Democrat won over 50% statewide. I realize other people use "since [insert year]" differently, and that statement would imply that 1983 was the last time the aforementioned happened, but that's not how I use it.

The Republican party wasn't that well established locally in MS until the 1980s, but they certainly did begin exploiting it almost immediately. "Local Democrats" are irrelevant to this question. The black vote was dominating Democratic primaries by the 1980s, no Democrat who was anti-black was ever going to win the nomination to statewide office, which is what we're talking about.

None of that is even remotely true.  The Mississippi Democratic primary electorate in 2015 was larger than the GOP primary electorate, and the Mississippi GOP wasn't a fully-functioning political party until the 2000s, at best.
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