Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[Del Tachi]

State Representative and former Alabama campaign manager for Trump Ed Henry is "very likely" to run for the seat.

He would probably be one of the stronger contenders in the primary.

EDIT:  Ed Henry is officially in.

[Del Tachi]

For anyone paying attention, Roy Moore is announcing his plans tomorrow.

A lot seem to think that its relating to this race, but Moore staying out of this Senate special could be a strong indication that he's going all-in for AL-Gov in 2018.

Of course, Moore could be announcing a run for AL-Gov tomorrow to try to get an early start and force Ivey out.

[Del Tachi]

you're from this region, but I find it really doubtful that Kay Ivey would be scared by Roy Moore, and that may even get more established GOPers to pony up for her campaign.

Kay Ivey was a candidate for AL-Gov in 2010 but dropped down to the LG's race when the field for governor got too big.  She's known as somebody who shies away from conflict, and that's exactly what a primary with Roy Moore would be.

The reason I think that Roy Moore could be a serious contender is because of the outside support he'd gobble up among the FRC and other so-con groups.  He's practically a martyr among the Rick and Bubba crowd.

If he signals a run for AL-Gov tomorrow, as the first entrant he gets first crack at this outside money.  Outside groups like to spend early in order to have the most impact.

In a Ivey vs. Moore primary, I rate the race as a Tossup/Tilt Ivey but it would be a tough pill for the AL-GOPe to swallow.  Despite being a LG and former state treasurer, she's not very high profile and might have a hard time on the trail against a firebrand like Moore.  AL-GOPe would be better off if Ivey stepped aside and allowed Moore to come in first in a crowded GOP primary and then face off against a fresher face in the runoff (i.e., Battle, Roby, Byrne, etc.)

[Del Tachi]

Interesting - though I'm not sure I'd categorize Byrne as a new face (didn't he also run in 2010 as the sort of establishment candidate?)

Yes, he did so you are correct that he wouldn't be exactly a "fresh face", but he has indicated interest in running for Gov again in 2018.

Interestingly enough, Byrne outdid Bentley in the GOP primary in 2010 then faltered when Bentley (in)famously ran ads against him in the runoff saying that "[Byrne] didn't believe in all parts of the Bible".  That type of attack just shows how powerful social conservatives (and thus Moore) would be in a GOP primary. 

[Del Tachi]

A Strange/Moore/Henry primary will be very interesting

Now all we need is a moderate conservative with the ability to self-fund and no Bentley baggage to run in order to turn the race into a complete free-for-all (ahem, looking at you Del Marsh)

[Del Tachi]

I thought just hit me. Alabama as runoff primaries, right? If so wow I could see Roy Moore winning the first round realistically how does he win the runoff?

A Strange/Moore runoff is a very probable outcome IMO

Hard to see Moore winning a majority in the second-round though.

[Del Tachi]

A three way race would likely be competitive. Strange could possibly win. Strange would likely get support from the GOP establishment and conservative Trump Democrats.

Socially conservative, economically moderate-to-liberal populists (who are probably who conservative Trump Democrats would be in Alabama) are more likely to vote for Moore than Strange probably.

Anyway, doing so would split the GOP vote and make Jones the favorite.  Remember, this isn't Alaska 2010 - Alabama Republicans are conservative enough that Strange positioning himself in the middle wouldn't be that much of a benefit, and racial polarization plus a higher percentage of Black voters in a bad Republican environment means Jones has a pretty concrete floor somewhere around 40 percent.   

[Del Tachi]

Roy Moore's son Caleb arrested for criminal trespassing in Etowah County.