Mississippi Megathread 2.0

[Del Tachi]

Could you realistically handicap Barker's chances in the Mayor's race?  Do you think he stands a decent chance?  Local politics is still very Democratic in Hattiesburg IIRC

There's no special election if Barker loses the mayor's race


To talk about other political happenings across the state, Tupelo Mayor Jason Shelton (D) has a $60,000 war chest and no serious opposition (and is in fact endorsed by many of the city's top Republicans, including his 2013 opponent).   This guy has serious statewide potential, but he's the kind of moderate, pro-development type Democrat that Forum Democrats loathe.  I'm calling him the Tommy Battle of Mississippi.

In Starkville, 36 year old Mayor Parker Wiseman is not seeking reelection.  This is somewhat of a surprise, as Wiseman was young, stood very good chances of reelection, and was regularly toted as a candidate for higher office down the road.  Word is he's got a good gig lined-up with one of the larger law firms in Jackson.  Former Starkville city administrator and local property manger Lynn Spruill (D) is largely expected to succeed Wiseman.  Spruill is much friendlier with Downtown/Cotton District business-owners than Wiseman was, and she will be a more strongly pro-development Mayor.

Heading north to Oxfart, after two terms Mayor Pat Patterson (D) has also announced his intention to retire.  Patterson has served in elected office in Oxford for 16 years.  So far, the only major candidate to announce is first-term alderwoman Robyn Tannehill (who looks like the epitome of Oxford).  While she's nominally running as a Democrat, she's shied away from partisan labels.

Filing deadlines in these races are March 3, so still plenty of time for them to evolve.  Partisan primaries will be in early May, and will effectively decide the outcomes.

    

[Del Tachi]

I've always pegged Hood's chances of running for governor as close to nil for many of the same reasons that Frank Corder mentions.

Also, Mississippi Dems would much prefer Hood to run again for AG than take a gamble on the Governor's Mansion.  I think Hood can be convinced to seek a fifth term, and we're certainly to need him in that position if Tate Reeves is elected governor. 

[Del Tachi]

If it's not Hood, Democrats must run a legit candidate. Musgrove's 2003 re-election bid was the last one.

Eaves (2007) and Gray (2015) were both jokes. DuPree (2011) had/has a political background but was never going to win statewide.

Nevertheless Eaves got better percentage then DuPree... And against incumbent...

Yeah I would rate Eaves as more serious challenger than DuPree or Gray.

There certainly isn't a Democratic bench in the state, and you're never going to convince a Nick Bain or Jason Shelton or Connie Moran to run for governor if there's a chance they might lose the primary to a truck driver.

MS Dems are a (sad) joke.  Republicans will have to run our state into the ground before Democrats have more than a snowball's chance in hell of occupying either end of Congress Street.

[Del Tachi]

In other state political news....

(1)  Last night Gov. Phil Bryant delivered his firth State of the State address.  Perhaps the biggest surprise was that the Governor said he was open to having "a general discussion" about the creation of a state lottery.  I guess after cutting taxes by $430 million last year and an accompanying decline in state revenues, good ol' Phil is willing to reach directly into the pockets of our poorest, least able citizens to bankroll his operation to turn Mississippi into a corporate bordello.  Bryant also asked for the state legislature to move an additional $57 million into the rainy day fund and establish a separate savings account for the $110 in BP settlement funds that will go to fund "appropriate projects" on the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

(2) A proposal for a new MAEP formula was revealed Monday. EdBuild, a New Jersey-based educational advocacy firm, was contracted by state GOP leaders to do the re-write.  The most significant change was a recommendation that the State abandon its commitment to fund at least 73% of local district costs (this is probably to the  benefit of poorer districts), changing MAEP formula estimates to be based off of total enrollment rather than average daily attendance, and upping the per-student funding level from $4,677 to around $4,808.  Its hard to compare the proposal to the current MAEP because MAEP has not be adequately funded since 2009.  I'm not sure how I'd handicap the proposal's chances of becoming law, but if the MAEP formula re-write turns into a local property tax debate I know how most GOP legislators will be voting.

(3) House Bill 555, which would have required the Governor, Lt. Governor and Secretary of State to sign onto lawsuits initiated by the Attorney General's office before they could go to court, failed to pass the full House by a vote of 58-60.  A motion to reconsider was initiated.  This was the best news to come out of Jackson so far this session.

[Del Tachi]

If it's not Hood, Democrats must run a legit candidate. Musgrove's 2003 re-election bid was the last one.

Eaves (2007) and Gray (2015) were both jokes. DuPree (2011) had/has a political background but was never going to win statewide.

What is Musgrove up to these days, anyway?

Interestingly enough, he was the founder of a group a few years ago called the "Southern Progress Fund" or something along those lines.  It was basically a Super PAC with the whole purpose of giving money to Southern Demosaurs.  Heavily involved in the 2014 campaigns of Gwen Graham, Travis Childers and John Barrow.   Folded not long after that, they weren't around to help JBE in 2015 I know. 

Probably not all that interesting (these kinds of groups spring up all the time) but I thought the Forum might want to know that Musgrove hasn't completely lost his political streak.  He's still fairly young too, late 50s I think (which is pretty remarkable if you consider he was first elected governor almost 20 years ago).

I'm not trying to sound rude when I ask this, but how is Mississippi already not run into the ground? They're dead last in educational attainment levels across the board, and their GDP per capita is downright pitiful. You would think that'd give someone like Hood an opening to run a "Democratic version of Trump" campaign under a "what the hell do you have to lose" type theme.

   

I'll agree with Gesp in saying that a fiscal calamity could probably hand a conservative Democrat with a lot of crossover appeal and a well-organized, well-financed campaign the keys back to the Governor's Mansion.

And by "calamity" I mean things will have to get bad.  Like, the President of Mississippi State having to shave students' semester short in order to absorb state budget cuts, state agencies being unable to perform their basic regulatory functions, PERS being unable to pay its obligations, the State Mental Hospital Closing, state student financial aid programs being halted, several successive credit rating downgrades, a highway overpass collapsing in Madison County and killing 10 commuters because of MDOT cuts (won't matter if it happens on the other side of County Line Road though), etc.  Certainly not a Mississippi even Phil Bryant and Tate Reeves in their Eastover ivory towers would want to live in.

As far as what kind of Democrat would be best to win back the Governor's Mansion, I'd certainly go with a JBE type over a Jim Justice type.  Hood is more of a Justice type I believe.  Presley is more JBE.  The most ancestrally Democratic part of the state, Northeast Mississippi, is so culturally conservative now that I think it's impossible for statewide Democrats to win their anymore.  Sure Hood won it in 2015, but he had the benefit of being a 12 year incumbent running in a down-ballot race against a so-polished-it-hurt Jackson attorney with no prior elected experience.  Heck, in 2015 Hood lost Lee County and Tupelo (the "capital" of NEMS for lack of a better term) and I don't imagine that Prentiss and Pontotoc and Itawamba are far behind.

Democrats will gain significant fuel for statewide elections as soon as Bryant's budget shenanigans start impacting the livelihood of your more urban/suburban, college educated, White Republicans in places like the Jackson suburbs and Gulf Coast.  In a way, Republican resentment will arrive at these places sooner than they will in rural areas because (a) not as culturally conservative, by Mississippi standards and (b) effects of budget cuts will be seen here the easiest. 

In fact, this is essentially what happened with JBE in Louisiana in 2015.  JBE didn't win back most of the votes that Democrats had lost in rural, conservative areas like Acadiana (now, he did do this in a few places, but not by enough to win statewide actually).  Instead, he ran up the margins in Baton Rouge and New Orleans and cut into GOP margins in the suburbs, college towns and the North Shore. Mississippi Democrats should chart a similar path forward if the worst comes to worst:  run up huge margins in the Delta and Jackson, cut deep into GOP margins in Rankin, Madison, DeSoto and the Coast, and win the college counties and maybe that's enough to win back the state.  To do these you need Democrats who come off as smart and knowledgeable and have some suburban appeal, not angry Donald Trump/Jim Justice types.