Chances that Thad Cochran wins the GOP runoff

[Del Tachi]

Somewhere around 20-25%.  But any of things that Harry mentioned could push it in an upward direction.

I'd call the race Lean McDaniel at this point. 

[Del Tachi]

I'm revising my earlier estimate, I'd say its somewhere around 50/50. 

[Del Tachi]

Not that it is at all likely, but is it too late for Cochran to file as an independent?

(Not that he has any chance in hell of winning).

I believe so, the filing deadline was like March 31st. That being said MS has easy ballot access laws, one merely has to form a "party" with an official address and elected party "officers" in order to get on the ballot, Thus if it's not to late a "Connecticut for Lieberman" knockoff party type effort is entirely possible.

If McDaniel ends up winning the run-off, I'd call this the best possible outcome. 

At the best, a three-way race with a lot of crossover Democrats throws the election to Cochran.  At its worst, Thad doesn't even campaign but is able to garner enough vote to elect Childers as Senator. 

[Del Tachi]

Cochran has won 6 consecutive statewide elections since 1978 and the national news media are mistaking that he's been in the Senate since 1973 when he was elected to the Senate back in '78.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thad_Cochran

I also give Cochran a 74% chance of winning the runoff based on his deep experience and I've gotta feel that assuming he wins the runoff and general, 2014 is likely his LAST political campaign.

Nah, I've already heard talk of Thad 2020 and Thad 2026.