Possible GOP comeback?

[Del Tachi]

I expect White voting patterns to become more homogeneous over the next twenty-to-forty years.  I think this stands to better the Republicans and not the Democrats.

Republicans don't need the Hispanic vote if they are winning >70% of the White vote.  Expect the Republicans to become a much more ethno-centric party, more in the mold of the BNP.  I don't like the idea either, but its just as viable as path for them to take as "tuning down social conservatism".  The GOP will try, in the coming elections, to unify voters on the premise of race, not social class. 

[Del Tachi]

Kevin, never in my above comments did I address social conservatism.

Although, I would like to contend with you that social conservatism in the Republican Party is on its "last leg".  While it could be said that the younger generation of GOP'ers today is markedly not as passionate as their parents or grandparents about protecting our society's endangered social institutions, this does not translate into an absence of social conservatism in the GOP platform of the future.  Instead, a more sensible response would be that the social conservatives of tomorrow will simply identify with different social causes.  As time and progress march on, I expect the issues of drug legalization, marriage equality and abortion to be rectified in a way that appeases the more liberal segments of our society.  However, this does not mean the end of social conservatism.  Rather, changes in society (and namely technology) will present new moral dilemmas that society must deal with over the next century-or-so.  There will always be people who advocate the status-quo, its just that the status-quo will change as society evolves and new problems arise.  These individuals are "social conservatives" and they are not going anywhere anytime soon.

Take an example from history; prior to the Civil War, the Democratic Party in the American South was dedicated to one central issue:  the protection of the social institution that was American Slavery.  However, when the Civil War resolved the Slavery issue in a manner appeasing to the abolitionists, this did not translate into the collapse of the Democratic Party in the South.  According to your logic, it would have--because the absence of the Party's main issue would mean that the Party would cease to be relevant among its former constituents.  This did not happened; so, what did happen?  What happened was that the Democratic Party in the American South came to focus on new issues that were created out of the mayhem that occurred in the "Reconstructed" South--these issues included a renewed focus on issues relating to tariffs, the protection of State autonomy in a increasingly "federalized" nation and the preservation of the Church and other local institutions as the chief-means of enacting social reform.  While the Civil War represents a very abrupt period of change in our nation's history, I think the politics of the era should show us that the two parties are extremely resilient in protecting the core tenets of their respective ideologies--even if the "hot button" issues of the day may change due to changing social mores.

In short, I believe that social conservatism will continue to be a marker of the Republican Party.  However, its just that the social conservatives of 2062 will not be advocating the same causes on the same issues as the social conservatives of 2012--this does not mean that social conservatism will disappear, it just means that it will be adapt to changing conditions.  If anything, social conservatism should be commended as a solid political ideology that will surely stand the test of time as long as their are individuals wanting to preserve the status-quo.