Though Lugar is respected, if he went independent Hostettler would make like Marco Rubio to the Senate because he would have the Tea Party's full support. Ellsworth stands no chance because a lot of Indiana Dems would sway towards Lugar. Though Ellsworth could try to sway many ToryDems his way. Look at it like this
Lugar supporters (some Moderates and some liberals) Endorsed by Coats possibly Daniels and Burton
Ellsworth (some ConservaDems, minorities, unions, gays) endorsed by Carson, Vislosky, Donnelly
Hostettler (Libertarians, most Conservatives, Tea Partiers, Reaganites)Endorsed by Walorski, Pence, Buschon, Stutzman, Young
Would be a classic
Pence and Daniels would both be solid Lugar-ites. After all, Lugar is basically Daniels's political mentor and the political futures of Pence and Daniels are inextricably intertwined. And I think that it's more likely for Lugar to remain a Republican and for Hostettler to run as an Independent.
The results: Lugar 52% (R), Ellsworth (D) 30%, Hostettler (I) 17%
In a normal-two way race: Lugar 68% (R), Ellsworth 30% (D)
