Nov 7th - MA, OH, PA, GA, ME - Mayor, Referendum, PA Supreme Court ONLY

[MAINEiac4434]

Question 2 should pass, the rest are up in the air. A lot of money flowing in from shady sources that are both pro- and anti-1.

[MAINEiac4434]

Turnout was great in Portland in the morning. Should be a huge Yes on 2 area. If the margin is big enough in Portland it should pass the entire state.

[MAINEiac4434]

Turnout was great in Portland in the morning. Should be a huge Yes on 2 area. If the margin is big enough in Portland it should pass the entire state.

Do you expect a split similar to 2016 President, where "No" wins in the second CD, but the first CD "Yes" margin is big enough to override it? Or will Yes win across the state?

Maybe, but I don't see why the poorer, more rural 2nd CD wouldn't want medicaid expansion.

[MAINEiac4434]

^^^ the casino will get defeated, probably by a decent margin.

[MAINEiac4434]

First results for ME question 2: Yes 870, No 527.

One town in each of the first district and second district are reporting. Both showing huge advantages for Yes.

The casino is being defeated with over 80% of the vote.

Lewiston and Auburn (jointly the second and fourth largest cities in the state) are currently overwhelmingly supporting a potential merger.

[MAINEiac4434]

Yes: 57%
No: 42%
In Maine with the only no township leading early in Palmyra by 64-35%

Just jumped to 62-38 on the Press Herald's website.

And lol, the casino's doomed.

[MAINEiac4434]

Small, rural, conservative communities are reporting right now. Portland shouldn't report until 9:30 ish

[MAINEiac4434]

Nothing out of Cumberland County yet for Maine. Communities on the Canadian border are breaking for Yes on 2.

[MAINEiac4434]

DAN HOPKINS 8:43 PM
So far, I’ve looked at nine Maine towns, and it looks like the results are tracking Trump’s 2016 performance pretty closely. Put differently, the places that backed Trump also oppose the Medicaid expansion by similar margins. That could mean a close election, as the 2016 election in Maine was decided by around 3 points. But since Portland, Auburn and Lewiston had ballot measures locally, those are places that are likely to have higher turnout — and so are worth keeping an eye on.

Harry Enten
HARRY ENTEN 8:43 PM
I’m looking at this town data from Maine, and I think Medicaid expansion has a better shot of passing than not. I’m not sure it will be that close, but this could be a weird race. A lot of the areas that have reported are more pro-Republican, and Portland (pro-Democrat) is still out. Expansion is leading by 7 percentage points so far.

[MAINEiac4434]

DAN HOPKINS 8:46 PM
For those of you looking at data from Maine, there’s a really interesting dynamic emerging there: Nowadays, the more educated, coastal towns tend to lean more to the left, while more inland areas tend to back Trump and the Republicans. So far, that’s appearing in the Question 2 returns.

[MAINEiac4434]

Question 2 now leads by almost 10 points, still no Portland results. Saco and Biddeford (Portland exurbs) went bigly for Yes.

[MAINEiac4434]

Just got a huge vote dump, Yes now leading by 12 points. 2 out of 12 precincts in Portland are reporting.

[MAINEiac4434]

Falmouth (affluent Portland suburb) heavily for Yes.

[MAINEiac4434]

Look at that scatter of votes in Maine townships

It looks like a Hillary/Trump map honestly.

[MAINEiac4434]

Vote dump from Bangor (second largest city, Democratic oasis in the second district) pushes Yes to a thirteen point lead. Still only two precincts from Portland.

This is done.

Look at that scatter of votes in Maine townships

It looks like a Hillary/Trump map honestly.

It's a shame that so much of those interior poorer county's are voting against there own interests in this initiative.

LePage came out HARD against it (because he so stubbornly prevented medicaid expansion all eight years of his governorship). He's spread lies about it increasing taxes and going to illegals (these areas are extremely white and suspicious of the growing Somali populations in the cities).

Notably, Troy Dale Jackson's (based DSA bro) district in Aroostook (northwestern Maine) is going heavily for it.

[MAINEiac4434]

Another vote dump, Yes now at 58%, still only two Portland precincts.

[MAINEiac4434]

Rent control being heavily defeated in Portland, over 70% no.

Fucking landlord fearmongering. They send out these mailers with a model on it saying "I'm for affordable housing, that's why I'm against rent control." They put No on 1 signs every 50 yards on major streets.

[MAINEiac4434]

SETH MASKET 9:10 PM
Comparing the complete vote results of 10 Maine townships on Medicaid expansion with their presidential votes last year, there’s a pretty high correlation (r-squared of .68). On average, the “yes” vote is running 15 points ahead of where Clinton ran last year. The big outlier here is Madawaska.

HARRY ENTEN 9:09 PM
In Maine, South Portland has reported: Medicaid expansion won by 53 points. Clinton’s margin over Trump was closer to 40 points in South Portland. It seems to me Medicaid expansion is going to pass.

[MAINEiac4434]

4 school renovation in Portland is currently running way ahead of the more modest 2 school renovation - 4 schools is winning 60-40, 2 schools winning 51-49. Great news, will force the City Council to rebuild all four.

[MAINEiac4434]

The York County Casino has been defeated with over 80% of the vote.

[MAINEiac4434]

Sorry for dominating the thread, but:

Waterville, LePage's homebase and the town he used to be Mayor of, is going heavily for Medicaid expansion, with 68% of the vote.

Currently 58-42 in favor, will be called when the rest of Portland comes in.

[MAINEiac4434]

The ConCon already down by 100,000 votes.

[MAINEiac4434]

I know the Medicaid expansion in Maine is passing by a huge margin, but why isn't it passing by more? How IN THE WORLD can anyone possibly oppose it?

See upthread about the fearmongering campaign by (some, not all) in the state's GOP.

Cape Elizabeth (arguably the most affluent area of the state) overwhelmingly Yes, 74-26. Two more Portland precincts in, still under 1,000 No votes there.

[MAINEiac4434]

DAN HOPKINS 9:25 PM
Bangor joins the ranks of Maine towns reporting — and it voted 67 percent in favor of Question 2. Clinton won 62 percent of the major-party votes there, and she won the state — so Question 2 continues to modestly outperform the 2016 Democratic nominee.

[MAINEiac4434]

Cyrus Vance is winning the Manhattan DA's race with 91% of the vote against a write-in candidate who only launched their campaign after it was revealed Vance dragged his feet on the Weinstein investigation. Moral victory that he's under 95.