2018 Senate Rankings

[MAINEiac4434]

Alabama Special: Safe R

Arizona: Likely R it's been a goal for Democrats for what seeems like forever but, I just don't see it happening unless there's a major registration jump by Latinos and a drop in the white vote.

California: Safe D even if Feinstein retires. The state is simply hardcore Democratic right now and all this handwringing about the top-two primary system is predicated on the Democrats inexplicably not running a strong candidate and the GOP running two.

Connecticut: Safe D. Chris Murphy is a rising star.

Delaware: Safe D.

Florida: Likely D. But it's Florida so anything can happen.

Hawaii: Safe D

Indiana: Likely R. Indiana's rightward bent will make it hard for Donnelly, but if Drumpf can't 'bring the jobs back' and with the Carrier deal in the rear-view mirror, maybe Donnelly will hold on. I won't hold my breath.

Maine: Safe D. Angus King was the last governor to get more than 50% of the vote in a gubernatorial election. He is extremely popular while LePage, in a word, isn't. It would be an extremely good night for the Republicans if they could take Maine from Angus. The only Dem challenger circling right now is a lady who came in third (of 3) in her state senate primary campaign in 2016 despite raising - and spending - a hell of a lot more money than her two opponents.

Maryland: Safe D even if Cardin retires.

Massachusetts: Safe D.

Michigan: Likely D because it's Michigan and it's no longer the safe Democratic state we thought it was.

Minnesota: Safe D.

Mississippi: Safe R. Only the biggest Democratic landslide could knock this state.

Missouri: Lean R Claire McCaskill likely won't have the benefit of having an abhorrent challenger. Even as she has lucked into Democratic wave elections in 2006 and 2012, Missouri's rightward trend will probably knock her down.

Montana: Toss-up Jon Tester is apparently popular in this safe-R seat. And with Zinke heading towards the cabinet, no one especially terrifying seems poised to take Tester on.

Nebraska: Safe R.

New Jersey: Likely D it's Bob Menendez, so all the inherent disadvantages of Bob Menendez come into play. Still, the R bench isn't exactly sterling.

New Mexico: Likely D A decent, moderate-ish senator from a lean-D seat. He should be fine.

New York: Safe D. Gillibrand is hugely popular and few R candidates to pick from.

Nevada: Toss-up. Nevada seems to be trending increasingly Democratic. A resurgent Latino vote, still angry about Drumpf, could spell the end to Dean.

North Dakota: Toss-up maybe with a slight tilt to the Republicans.

Ohio: Lean D. Ohio has definitely shifted right in recent years, but Sherrod Brown still has ins with the working class voters Hillary lost.

Pennsylvania: Lean D. Casey isn't very socially liberal - as a matter of fact, he's pro-life - so perhaps that will play well among working class voters who went to Drumpf in 2016.

Rhode Island: Safe D.

Tennessee: Safe R.

Texas: Safe R.

Utah: Safe R.

Vermont: Safe D. The only way the Dems don't retain this seat is if someone challenges Bernie in the Dem primary (unlikely), they win the primary (impossible) and Bernie continues his campaign as an independent, thereby splitting the left vote and allowing an R to squeeze through.

Virginia: Likely D. Virginia is almost in the safe-Dem category now. It has trended Democratic for more than a decade.

Washington: Safe D.

West Virginia: Safe D. It's Joe Manchin. Update 1/29/17: With Jenkins' entry into the race, I've shifted it to a Lean R.

Wisconsin: Lean D. I have no idea what Wisconsin's deal is.

Wyoming: Safe R.

[MAINEiac4434]

^ TX isn't happening. Barring some R from another senate class in a competitive-enough state abruptly dying or resigning, the only path for a dem majority in the senate goes through a three-way race in Utah, probably involving Hatch making it through his primary by a hair (goes into the general very damaged), a strong McMullin Independent Candidacy, and Matheson being the dem nominee.

I think there's a non-zero chance of an inverse MA-Sen 2010 happening if things get that bad, but it's extremely unlikely

MA was a special election held in the early spring, not exactly prime campaign season, with a terrible Democratic candidate.

[MAINEiac4434]

^ TX isn't happening. Barring some R from another senate class in a competitive-enough state abruptly dying or resigning, the only path for a dem majority in the senate goes through a three-way race in Utah, probably involving Hatch making it through his primary by a hair (goes into the general very damaged), a strong McMullin Independent Candidacy, and Matheson being the dem nominee.

I think there's a non-zero chance of an inverse MA-Sen 2010 happening if things get that bad, but it's extremely unlikely

MA was a special election held in the early spring, not exactly prime campaign season, with a terrible Democratic candidate.

Yet it had midterm-level turnout. And TX has a despised incumbent. If it was Cornyn, I wouldn't be writing this.

You're right, actually. Wow, I didn't know the turnout for MA 2010 was so high. It was even higher than 2014.

[MAINEiac4434]

I never said that. But even if we assume that Trump is at -8/9 nationally in 2018 (which obviously wouldn't be good), that doesn't mean he will unpopular in a state like MT or WV. A lot of his opposition is really concentrated in deep blue, heavily populated states like CA and NY. So while that could help Ds in the House (especially in suburban areas), it wouldn't have a big impact on the Senate races.

I think it very much depends on if he's been able to "bring the jobs back." He might even be lower in states that went to him heavily if they don't see movement on the jobs front.