US House Redistricting: Texas

[Dgov]

Al Green won't defeat Sheila in that CD-18, though I see how you're drawing him in, but he'll be toast.  Gene Green's residence would now be in CD-9, so CD-29 would be very open.  A lot of your proposed CD-29 is very idiosyncratic territory - you could get any type of race in control there, don't let the Hispanic numbers fool you.

You also won't like the partisan numbers on your proposed CD-7.  I also wonder on the partisan numbers of CD-9 and CD-29, they'll be Democratic enough, though.

Hmm, I approximated that CD-7 at 56% McCain or so; its a 59.8% Anglo district. The precincts are pretty carefully chosen. It might be a problem a few years from now, though.

CD-22 was actually my real concern given the massive shifts in Fort Bend.

You're right, it is at about 56% McCain from what I can tell trying to replicate it.   However, it begs the question why you added all the Democrat-leaning territory in the western part of the district and gave the heavily-republican parts to the 8th?  I assume that district doesn't need any help.  Rearrange some lines around there and give some of the red/blue territory to  the 7th, and you can make it at least 59% McCain.

Also, your CD-22 is fine, it's almost 60% McCain.

[Dgov]

what's with Pete Sessions district losing 11,000 people. I'm guessing the district is going to pick up parts of Garland from CD 3.

Probably not--those precincts don't have the kind of numbers that he needs to get a safe district.  It'll probably shoot north towards Frisco and some of the other North-Dallas suburbs in the 4th and 26th that can be safely removed.

[Dgov]

How is that eliminating Gene Green's seat? It's a purpose drawn Hispanic Dominated seat as is. Yeah, Green's white, but it's not been an issue except on his very first election in 1992.

He means flip it to a Republican seat.

And yes it is possible, but you'd probably run into a VRA challenge as a result.  By definition a district like that would have to basically contain a bunch of uber-Republican whites to out-vote the Hispanic majority, which I don't think is allowed.  Though you can certainly cut out the Black-heavy parts of the current district to get it down to basically swing while still Highly Hispanic.

You can actually do the same thing with the 27th and 23rd as well (a Laredo-Odessa/Midland District is like 67% Hispanic and 60% McCain), and possibly also with the 28th and the San Antonio suburbs.

[Dgov]

Yeah, it sounds easy to draw a couple Hispanic majority McCain CD's in Texas involving rural areas and not too much of the border. Is this mainly due to plenty of Hispanics not being citizens (or not turning out) or do some of these areas have more GOP Hispanic support?

It depends on where you're talking about.  West Texas has plenty of GOP-voting Hispanics, (the current TX-11 is almost 40% Hispanic, and it was George Bush's best District in the country), and they certainly exist in the rest of the state--they're just spread-in with the white voters so they're harder to detect.  The more concentrated Hispanics are in one place, the more Democrat they tend to be (since such areas are generally urban and poor).

So generally speaking, drawing McCain-Hispanic districts involves a combination of Hispanic-majority areas and precincts that Vote Democrat in depressed numbers and White-majority but still-substantially Hispanic Republican precincts to out-vote them.

In the example i gave above, you combine about 350,000 People in the Laredo and Eagle Pass areas that are like 95% Hispanic and 70% Democrat with about 350,000 People in the Odessa and Midland Areas that are like 35% Hispanic and 80% Republican (and who vote more) to get a district that is 65% Hispanic but also solidly Republican.

You can also do this with the Gulf Coast areas (which are Solidly Republican with a substantial Hispanic Population) and South Texas to give Farenthold a solid R district that's Hispanic-majority.

However in the large cities this breaks down a bit--particularly because you start getting White Liberals and Blacks in the mix, both of which drag down the Hispanic percentage and the McCain percentage, so it becomes a more ugly fine-picking of precincts.  It's generally still possible to get 55% McCain Districts in Houston and San Antonio, and perhaps even Dallas (but I haven't got one there yet).

[Dgov]

Greene is too entrenched. He has been in congress for 20 years and in an elected office for nearly 40 years. Doing that will only put him in a position similar to Jim Matheson.

Quite possibly. Around 80-85% of that district is identical to the existing CD-29 (which of course is underpopulated and has to lose hispanic VAP regardless); the only significant change is in the northeast corner where the black dominated 70-85% precincts are chopped out, which all go into another Democratic district anyway.

Still, if Texas can vote out Ortiz, they can vote out Green.

Especially considering Ortiz was in a much safer district (Obama won ~53% there i think). Green will be toast if such a district survives a lawsuit (which is not a sure thing by any means)

Though you can draw a 67% Hispanic district that voted 53% McCain with a similar shape.  You just have to fine-tune the details of it and figure out a good McCain-vote:Hispanic ratio.  There are enough heavily McCain precincts on the outer edges of the district to flip the district--you just have to balance them with Heavily Hispanic districts in inner Houston with low turnouts and medium Obama margins.

[Dgov]

Especially considering Ortiz was in a much safer district (Obama won ~53% there i think). Green will be toast if such a district survives a lawsuit (which is not a sure thing by any means)

Though you can draw a 67% Hispanic district that voted 53% McCain with a similar shape.  You just have to fine-tune the details of it and figure out a good McCain-vote:Hispanic ratio.  There are enough heavily McCain precincts on the outer edges of the district to flip the district--you just have to balance them with Heavily Hispanic districts in inner Houston with low turnouts and medium Obama margins.

Is that 67% VAP? My district is at 65% population and 60% VAP, and as a general rule of thumb, its a 1% to 1% tradeoff, so that makes sense.

These kinds of small changes also give hispanics a strong plurality in CD-9. I don't know of any cases where districts like this have been overturned in any lawsuit; if they could be, the original TX-29 last decade would have also had problems.

The heavy black areas were all in that central area that connected the 2 big hispanic populations. I'm not sure what town is up there or if its unincorporated.

67% total Population, though since the current one is like 72% Total Hispanic and much less 10 years ago, it should be fine.

Also, have you tried connecting the two sections directly?  (Cutting through the 18th right at the neck).  That territory is maybe 63% Obama and you only need a few precincts to go through.  then the 18th just wraps around the top part of the 29th and comes back down, like a fishhook.

[Dgov]

the supreme court should invent a term. A VRA district has to be one where hispanics make up a majority of REGISTERED VOTERS. In case a hack like krazen starts drawing the maps, it can stop them from enacting them.

No, it really wouldn't.  its not like these districts are R-leaning because most of the Hispanics aren't registered/don't vote ()though that helps), its because they vote 60-40 Democrat while the ~40% white voters vote 75-25 Republican.

[Dgov]

(plus making a Hispanic district to "replace" Farenthold's) will do for that.

Why?  Its not like they can't draw the 27th in a way that is still overwhelmingly Hispanic (like 67% VAP) that also voted for McCain.  You have to trade out Brownsville for the Harlingen area (which is way more Republican and only a little less Hispanic), and add in some of the Hispanic Republican counties more inland, but you can probably draw Farenthold a strong R District that's still easily VRA compliant.

[Dgov]

Wow Epic Fail.  I can draw a fairly clean 25-9-2 Gerrymander that follows the VRA (all Hispanic-majority districts have more tahn 60% VAP Hispanic).

That's just a mess, and not only that, a poorly drawn mess.

[Dgov]

That might end up being a 27-9 map. The 15th isn't very dem there. Though they need to smash gene green still and plop a new dallas Hispanic district, which also nicely completely eliminates the last 2 white liberals.

There is no conceivable way the 15th survives a court challenge.  They struck down a Hidalgo-Austin Map, what makes you think they'd approve of a Hidalgo-HOUSTON map?

[Dgov]

That might end up being a 27-9 map. The 15th isn't very dem there. Though they need to smash gene green still and plop a new dallas Hispanic district, which also nicely completely eliminates the last 2 white liberals.

There is no conceivable way the 15th survives a court challenge.  They struck down a Hidalgo-Austin Map, what makes you think they'd approve of a Hidalgo-HOUSTON map?

While the district may very well be challenged in court, it simply is "conceivable" that the district is upheld. Courts have approved baconmandering South Texas for decades. Failing to baconmander South Texas would result in a couple of very Hispanic districts along the Rio Grand, and series of more marginal districts to the North. That sounds fine with me.

The appearance of the district might not even be an issue.

yeah, but that was back when the Northern part of those districts were overwhelmingly white and needed the Border-Hispanic population to get by the VRA.

You don't really need that anymore.  I can draw 5 Hispanic-Majority Districts in the South Border-San Antonio Area that are all over 60% VAP Hispanic with only 1 "Baconmader", and that's to take Harlingen and put it in a Corpus-Christi District.  Two whole districts are on the South Border (Brownsville to Edinburg, and McAllen to Laredo) that are over 90% Hispanic each and the rest of the map still works.

[Dgov]

The question is whether the 15th has a separate distinct hispanic population on the Houston side, and the vap issue. Texas GOP won't mess up vap again, former I can't tell.

The dallas map probably holds through the decade though. Did they at least get the black population out of the 29th?

Nope.  In fact aside from throwing Galveston into the new 27th and splitting the 14th and 22nd more cleanly, the Houston map is basically identical to the current one.  I don't know why though--doing that is easy and it takes the 29th from a 62% Obama district to like a 55% one that's actually MORE Hispanic (depending on what you add to compensate though).  Through in the rest of Pasadena, and it winds up a ~70% Hispanic district (66% Hispanic VAP) that voted for McCain.

Though the 22nd is probably under 55% McCain now too, and the 10th looks like it takes in even more of Austin.  Yeah, this is a bad map.  Its ugly and pretty crappy outside of the DFW area, which is the ugliest in the State and will probably get struck down out of sheer ugliness, let alone Population Cracking of the Hispanics there.  I mean, the 31st is probably only about 53% McCain because it takes in Fort Hood (Democratic bastion) instead of the Temple area of Bell County (Republican Bastion).  Its not like Bill Flores needs the extra support--Its an uglyness created that Hurts the Republican incumbent.

Though I toyed with it for a bit, and you can draw about a 62% Hispanic district if you take it from Fort Worth to NE Dallas that looks a bit nicer than that map

[Dgov]

That might end up being a 27-9 map. The 15th isn't very dem there. Though they need to smash gene green still and plop a new dallas Hispanic district, which also nicely completely eliminates the last 2 white liberals.

Also, Unless I've missed something, that map only adds 1 net Hispanic-Majority district (33rd and 34th created as Hispanic-majority, and 25th turned into Hispanic-majority, but 23rd and 27th are no longer Hispanic-majority).  I don't think the Courts will allow only 1 new Hispanic Majority District, particularly one that's split between Austin and San Antonio like the 25th currently is.

[Dgov]

I like the map, but does anyone agree that the Dallas map is pure bullsh!t. In 1988, Michael Dukakis won two districts in Dallas, the 5th and 24th, even though George W. Bush carried the county by a 58-42 margin. In 2008, Barack Obama won the county 57-43, yet only won a single district (the 30th) in Dallas.

Of course--The County is basically a Bunch of Blacks in South Dallas surrounded by swing-y areas.  Under a Democratic Gerrymander, said blacks were split up to swing more Districts to the Democrats.  Under a Republican Gerrymander, the Blacks are all concentrated into one district and the swing areas are lumped with heavily Republican areas in the surrounding counties.  Its Gerrymandering 101.  He who draws the lines controls the elections.

Although to be honest Obama would still probably only have won 2 maps in DFW under a fair plan (South Dallas one and Fort Worth one), mostly because the rest of the area is either Uber-Republican Suburbs or lean Republican Cities (Garland, Mesquite, Arlington, North Dallas if it was its own city etc.).  Outside of the Heavily Liberal South Dallas Burbs and Grand Prairie I don't think Obama won a single small city there.  You would however have like 2-3 others that voted barely for McCain on the order of like 51-52% that a Democrat could conceivably win.

[Dgov]

Can Someone help me figure out how to post my screenshots of my TX Gerrymander?  I got the pics saved in Photoshop, but now Photo-bucket apparently can't find them in their folder.  Do i need to convert them to something else instead?

[Dgov]

Okay, I got my 24-9-3 (Pretty) Clean VRA-compliant Texas R Gerrymander uploaded.

Full State:


Houston Area:


DFW:


Overall, I added 2 Hispanic Majority Districts (35th in DFW, and the 11th in West Texas is now Hispanic-Majority), a Black Majority District (TX-30 in Dallas is now 50.2% Black and 51.2% Black VAP), and a plurality Hispanic district (TX-25 in Austin).

All Hispanic-majority Districts except the 35th are at least 59% VAP Hispanic, all but the 35th and the 11th are at least 61% VAP Hispanic.  TX-27, TX-23 and TX-29 are all McCain-Voting districts as well, although they are all under 55% McCain so i listed them as "swing" districts since they're really not Safe.  But even assuming worst case for the GOP, and it loses all 3, this map is still a solid 24-12 Gerrymander, which represents a 4-seat pickup from 2008.

District-by-District analysis coming shortly.

[Dgov]

It's a whole lot easier when you can do the Austin pack, but I suspect that you're going to be required to do the Austin-San Antonio Hispanic thing.  Your TX-11 is a little strange also.

Well, its the only place in the State where you can draw another Hispanic-Majority district without really ugly gerrymandering, so It'll probably stand.  Its more of a community of interest than the Austin-SA district, which you can't actually do under this map (not enough Hispanics free in SA, both TX-20 and TX-23 are at 62% VRA Hispanic, and they can't afford to give up any more to boost TX-25.

[Dgov]

District 1:


This district doesn't change much.  Incumbent Louie Gohmert is Safe in this District, which voted 69% for McCain

District 2: (Dark Green)


This district gets completely confined to Harris County, and as a result gets considerably more Republican, taking in some parts of the current TX-7 and TX-10 while losing Swing-y Beaumont and Port Arthur to the 36th.  It goes from 60% McCain to 64.5% McCain, and is a Safe R district for incumbent Ted Poe

District 3:


This District is now completely inside Collins county, taking in Plano and some surrounding Suburbs.  It gets about 5 points more R, and now voted 63% McCain.  Incumbent Sam Johnson is Safe

District 4:


This district has the safe rough shape as the current district, but gives up alot of its Dallas Suburbs to the 3rd and 32nd districts.  As a result, it gets about a point more Republican, going from 69.5% McCain to 70.5% McCain.  Incumbent Ralph Hall is Safe here, although his home in Rockwall is very inconveniently place and prevents me from shoring up the 32nd any more.  If he were to retire or move further out from downtown, i could do some reshuffling and make this a primarily rural district.  Either way Safe R.

[Dgov]

District 5:


This district Takes in more of the Garland and NorthEast Dallas, and as a result gets about a point and a half more Democrat.  However, incumbent Jeb Hensarling is still safe in this 62% McCain District (assuming I didn't draw him out of his district, and I don't know precisely where he lives).  Safe R.

District 6:


This district loses Arlington and some of its Southern rural counties, but picks up Waco and Grand Prarie in Southwest Dallas county.  It goes from 60% McCain to 62% McCain, though incumbent Joe Barton might not like how much new territory he's getting.  Safe R

District 7:


This District loses some of its western swing suburbs and picks up alot of Republican and swing territory from the current 18th near central Houston (that i presume was intended to eliminate a Democratic incumbent).  It gets about a point more Republican, going from 58% McCain to 59% McCain.  Incumbent John Culberson is safe here in this reliably Republican district.

District 8:


Much like the 2nd District, this district is now completely based in the Overwhelmingly Conservative Northern Houston Suburbs.  Montgomery county is kept together for incumbent Kevin Brady, and the district remains overwhelmingly Republican.  Safe R

[Dgov]

District 9:


This district is basically unchanged.  I tried to balance its Black population with the 18th to keep 2 Black-influenced districts, but this one wound up still being plurality VAP Hispanic, but by less than a point.  Incumbent Al Green should be safe in this heavily Minority 79% Obama District.  Save D

District 10:


This district changes Radically, and Incumbent Michael McCaul is drawn out of it.  It changed from a finger district between the Heavily Republican parts of Houston and White Liberal Austin, to covering the territory between Bexar and Travis counties.  Its about halfway split between Swing-y South Austin Suburbs and Heavily Republican San Antonio Suburbs.  Incumbent McCaul will probalby not be happy with this district, but its impossible to preserve his district in anything resembleing a clean map, so he'll have to make do with either this district or TX-33, which covers West Austin Suburbs.  Though at 60% McCain, it'll be safe R no matter who runs in it.

District 11:


This is the first new Hispanic-Majority VAP district, covering most of West Texas outside of El Paso.  Its 59% VAP Hispanic, and has to include some finger portions to get up to that (including forcing El Paso-based 16th to take some white areas of the big bend to compensate).  The District is based in Odessa/Midland, but steches to San Angelo, El Paso, Eagle Pass, and almost up to Lubbock.

While a kind of ugly district, I think this is the cleanest way to add a 9th Hispanic-Majority district in the state.  It doesn't hurt that its also 61% McCain, though incumbent Mike Conway is probably not going to be happy with a Hispanic-Majority district.  Safe R either way though.

District 12:


This District Doesn't change much from its current form.  Its still basically the White and Republican areas of Fort Worth along with the Surrounding Suburbs.  It has gotten about a point more Republican however, and incumbent Kay Granger is Safe in this 64% McCain District.

[Dgov]

District 13:


This District gets alot cleaner than its current counterpart.  It now stretches from Amarillo to Wichita falls, with most of the rural areas West and Southwest of Oklahoma it in.  Incumbent Mac Thornberry is safe in this district, which is about equally as Republican as its would-be predecessor.  McCain got 76% of the Vote here.

District 14:


This District consolidates around the Houston Suburbs, picking up the rest of Galveston County along with most of Brazoria county and Southeast Harris County.  Its significantly more Democratic than the current 14th, but still voted 59% for McCain, so Paul should be safe here barring any major backlash against his unique political style.  Safe R

District 15:


This is the one that I think is going to be the most controversial, since its basically a Hispanic pack.  At 91% VAP Hispanic, it would be (along with its neighbor the 28th) the most Hispanic district in the US, by a ton.  However, the fact that this district represents a legitimate community of interest instead of a line of counties stretching from the border to Houston (and that the bacon-manderring is no longer needed to satisfy the VRA), I think it'll pass in court.  Incumbent Rueben Hinojosa is very safe here, as the district would have voted 74% Obama (though with extremely low turnout).

District 16: (Darker Green)


This district is basically unchanged from its current form despite adding thousands of square miles of west Texas nothing.  its still overwhelmingly based in El Paso, still Safely Democrat, and Still around 65% Obama.  Democratic Incumbent Silvestre Reyes is safe here.

[Dgov]

District 17:


This was basically my left-over district, covering a long stretch of rural territory from the coast to North of Houston.  Incumbent Bill Flores is getting a lot of new territory here, but at 64% McCain, it shouldn't be too much of a problem.  The only oddity is that I threw in a bunch of D-leaning West Harris Suburbs, (they had to go somewhere),  but that can be easily traded to the 8th for parts of Montgomery county if necessary.  Safe R

District 18: (Yellow Curved one)


This district is ugly.  Really ugly.  It forms a sort of a toilet seat around the 29th district.  However i got this one back to plurality black VAP, so there probably shouldn't be any racial problems.  its shape comes from the fact that I connected the two prongs of the 29th though the middle of its current form, so its overall location doesn't change much.  It does however get a few points more Democratic, and at 81% Obama should be safe for any Democrat to hold.

District 19:


This district takes in most of West-Central Texas, stretching from Lubbock in the Northwest to San Angelo in the South to Abilene in the East.  Incumbent Randy Neugebauer is safe here, in a district that gave McCain 72% of the Vote.  Safe R

District 20: (Pink)


This district moves slightly north from its previous form, taking in some more swing areas of northern San Antonio in exchange for some heavily Hispanic precincts in the South.  As a results, it gets a bit less Hispanic (only 62% Hispanic VAP), but it also gets 3 points more Democratic, so incumbent Charlie Gonzalez is safe here, in a district that gave Obama 66% of the vote.  Safe D

District 21: (Brown)


This district gets completely confined to Bexar County.  However, it takes all the Republican parts, so it still voted 59% for McCain, and incumbent Lamar Smith is safe here.  The reason for this districts shape is because I needed an "excuse" to crack southern San Antonio, and fitting this district entirely in Bexar county worked out perfectly for that.  Safe R

[Dgov]

District 22:


This district takes up most of Fort Bend Country, parts of west Harris County, and western Brazoria county.  As a result it gets a bit more Republican, and at 60% McCain, it should be safe for incumbent Pete Olsen.

District 23:


This district is now based almost entirely around San Antonio and some rural areas to the East.  Its only about half a point less Hispanic than its current incarnation, but at 52% McCain it should be safer for incumbent Quico Canseco, after trading out the somewhat Hispanic NE San Antonio for the somewhat Hispanic Victoria area, which is far more Republican.  Its probably a Republican-leaning Swing District

District 24:


This district sheds its southern half, and is now concentrated around NE Tarrant County.  As a result, it gets significantly Whiter and more Republican, as it would have voted 63% McCain in 2008.  If incumbent Kenny Marchant can be convinced to move into the Tarrant county portino of the district, Coppel and the surrouding Republican areas can be put into the 32nd to make it safer.

District 25:


This district is basically an Austin-Pack, though I made sure it wound up being at least plurality Hispanic.  Incumbent LLoyd Dogget will be much safer in this 75% Obama District.

District 26:


This District loses its portion of tarrant county, and as a result is now much more Republican.  It takes in parts of Collins County and more of the rural areas north of Dallas, and at 63% McCain, should be safe for Incumbent Michael Burgess.

[Dgov]

District 27:



This district doesn't change much from its current incarnation, although it does trade out Brownsville for the much more Republican Harlington in South Texas.  Keeping Corpus Christi intact makes solidifying this district a problem since it can't really go anywhere else, but i did make it 5 points more Republican (to 51% McCain), so incumbent Blake Farenthold should be much safe here in 2012.  Lean R at worst

District 28:



This is the other South-Texas Based district, and like the 15th its about 90% Hispanic and 70% Obama.  Incumbent Henry Ceullar is very safe here, though he might face a primary challenge from a more Liberal Hispanic.

District 29:



This is the Houston Hispanic-Majority District, and it gets significantly more Republican.  I basically cut out all the Black-heavy parts and replaced them with heavily Republican parts in SE Harris county.  It goes from 63% Obama to 54% McCain while still under 25% White.  This should be a Republican pickup, although incumbent Gene Green has won in most of this territory before.  Lean R

District 30:



This district loses its heavily HIspanic parts to the 35th, but gains the black parts of Tarrant County.  As a result, it gets more slightly more Democrat and Blacker, and is now 51% VAP Black.  Incumbent Eddie Bernice Johnson is safe here

[Dgov]

District 31:



This district doesn't really change much--It loses its northern Rural areas and Fort Hood in exchange for some rural areas NE of Austin.  At 59% McCain, incumbent John Carter should probably be safe here for the time being.  Safe R

District 32:



This district is a bit tricky, since its currently only marginally Republican and has Republican incumbents to the West, NW, North, NE, and East of it, boxing it in from the heavily Republican territory further out from Dallas.  I did manage to get it up to 58% McCain from its current 53%, although its still not as safe as I would like.  If incumbent Ralph hall or Kenny Marchant could be persuaded to either retire or move, this district could easily get up to 61% McCain.


District 33:



This district is the first new one, and it takes in 3 very different demographic areas:  the marginally Republican West Austin Suburbs, fairly democratic Fort Hood, and heavily Republican Central Texas.  It all evens out to about 61% McCain, so an easy Republican pickup no matter who runs here.

District 34:



This district is the 2nd new one, and takes in most of Arlington and the Southwest Fort Worth Suburbs.  At 63% McCain, its about as safe as most other Dallas-based Republican Districts, and should probably elect an Arlington Republican.  Safe R

District 35:



This district is the new Hispanic-Majority VAP one in the Metroplex.  It stretches from Fort Worth to Dallas to Garland, and although its only 55% VAP Hispanic, I don't think it will be much of an issue given that Metroplex Hispanics are so spread out that a district this ugly is basically required to get the Hispanic VAP up to even that.  At 69% Obama, its probably Safe D for whoever decides to run here.

District 36:



This district covers the Beaumont/Port Arthur area along with the rural territory north of it.  This area is historically Democratic (Delay actually removed a district roughly this shape in 2003), but turned hard Republican over the last few years, so at 64% McCain it should probably be safe for any R.  If necessary, you can trade territory with the Montgomery-based 8th to shore it up some more, but i don't think thats currently necessary.