I'm not saying this poll isn't correct, but SUSA has had some weird results for house races lately.
Yeah, especially since the Democrat wins Hispanics with a larger margin than Blacks, which is unusual. Especially that the neighboring 19th District poll has the two candidates roughly tied with Hispanics.
Still, if this poll is anything close to the reality of the race, Democrats are in big trouble. This is a 63% Hispanic district that voted almost 60% for Obama in 2008, and Costa is a decent incumbent (though the Central valley water issues might be a factor here)