This CD is too hyper-partisan for either the R or D to get much below 45%.
That being said, if Rasmussen is right and Obama's approval in Texas is 34%, it would suggest that the border regions in this CD do not approve of Obama. If that translates into non-votes for Ciro, he will be in big trouble.
Obama won this district narrowly in 2008 (50-49 i believe), so for Ciro to hold on he basically has to attract some McCain voters. He only won 56% in 2008, which suggests that Canseco leading is not unlikely, given that a 5-6 point shift from 2008, especially in a 60-ish Percent Hispanic district, is to be expected.
