UK local by-elections, 2024

[YL]

Good result for the Tories in Northants, though they had a similarly strong hold in Rushden around a year ago. Didn't tell us much about the parliamentary byelection containing the town earlier this year.

I still find it a little surprising how little the Tories have suffered at local level in Northants (especially North Northants) for what happened to the county council.

[YL]

Just two this week, but can the SNP finally win a local by-election?

Thursday 11 April

Andrew Teale's preview

Highland; Inverness South

First preferences
Ind McDonald 730 (22.1%, new)
Lib Dem 652 (19.7%, +11.1)
SNP 641 (19.4%, -15.8)
Con 533 (16.1%, -0.8)
Lab 364 (11.0%, +3.8)
Green 237 (7.2%, +1.8)
Alba 107 (3.2%, +1.4)
Sovereignty 41 (1.2%, new)

Stage 7: Ind McDonald 1247, Lib Dem 1235

Ind McDonald gain from Lib Dem (but morally from SNP)

North Yorkshire; Stray, Woodlands and Hookstone

Lib Dem 1094 (43.8%, -7.8)
Con 768 (30.8%, -4.0)
Green 376 (15.1%, new)
Reform UK 141 (5.7%, new)
Lab 116 (4.6%, -2.6)

Lib Dem hold

[YL]

but can the SNP finally win a local by-election?

That'll be a no then.

[YL]

The SNP were very close to making it into the final two, but in practice if either the independent or the LD had been eliminated instead of them, then the remaining candidate would have beaten the SNP candidate by a much wider margin than the independent beat the LD by.

They weren't actually close to the final two. Here's BallotBoxScotland's plot of the transfers:


For the first few counts, there wasn't that much in it between the top three candidates, with the SNP overtaking the Lib Dems and getting quite close to McDonald with transfers from Alba and the Greens. But that left those three candidates close together on count 5 with the Tory vote just about to be transferred. Unsurprisingly that Tory vote produced hardly anything for the SNP and substantial amounts for the Lib Dems and McDonald, so the SNP were clearly eliminated on count 6.

In fact the Lib Dems were 15 votes ahead of McDonald on count 6, but the SNP elimination favoured McDonald, hence his eventual win by 12 votes on count 7.

[YL]

And here's BallotBoxScotland's plot of the most popular second preferences by first preference vote:



The patterns are not very surprising for the most part, but note that Ind > SNP and SNP > Ind are both quite low, suggesting that McDonald isn't very SNP adjacent, which would make this result even worse for them.

[YL]

Tuesday 16 April

Andrew Teale's preview

Pembrokeshire; St Ishmael's

Con 297 (43.4%, +18.9 on the same candidate as an Independent)
Ind Jenkins 242 (35.3%, new)
Ind Harwood 69 (10.1%, -2.4 on the same candidate as a Green)
Ind Simister 52 (7.6%, new)
Ind Worsley 25 (3.6%, new)
(changes from 2022, when the only party candidate was Harwood as a Green)

Con gain from Ind

[YL]

Thursday 18 April

Andrew Teale's preview

East Cambridgeshire; Ely West

Lib Dem 1125 (47.9%, +10.6)
Con 760 (32.3%, +10.2)
Lab 466 (19.8%, -2.7)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

Waverley; Farnham Castle

Farnham Residents 307 (32.5%, -17.7)
Lib Dem 279 (29.6%, new)
Lab 217 (23.0%, -11.7)
Con 141 (14.9%, -0.3)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Farnham Residents hold

[YL]

And another chance for the SNP to break their run.

Thursday 25 April

Andrew Teale's preview

Angus; Arbroath West, Letham & Friockheim

First preferences
Con 1682 (41.9%, +10.6)
SNP 1175 (29.3%, -6.9)
Lab 644 (16.1%, +9.6)
Lib Dem 333 (8.3%, +3.9)
Green 176 (4.4%, +1.1)

Con gain from Ind (morally Con gain from SNP); transfer details to follow

Cardiff; Grangetown

Lab 1470 (47.5%, -5.6)
Plaid/Green 573 (18.5%, -9.3)
Con 387 (12.5%, +3.5)
Propel 292 (9.4%, +6.2)
Ind Abdi Samater 266 (4.9%, new)
Lib Dem 175 (3.2%, -1.7)
Ind Horvord 44 (1.4%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lab hold

(Yes, that's a joint candidate between Plaid Cymru and the Greens; this arrangement already existed in 2022.)

[YL]

(Yes, that's a joint candidate between Plaid Cymru and the Greens; this arrangement already existed in 2022.)

Plaid Cymru/Green alliances and electoral deals go back to the early 1990s, with mixed results.

Several constituencies had joint Plaid/Green candidates in the 1992 General Election. According to some sources (including his Wikipedia article) one of them was Cynog Dafis, who won Ceredigion & Pembroke North. So there was, sort of, a Green MP 18 years before Caroline Lucas, but I'm not sure how official the endorsement was or what appeared on the ballot paper.

[YL]

For those who like a really deep cut, Until the 1980s Grangetown tended to vote Labour in General Elections but was a marginal ward that often narrowly returned Conservatives in local elections, the latter being a legacy of the machine politics and, ultimately, political issues (temperance!) of another age. At least one of the Conservative candidates in the ward back then always had an Irish surname, as a rule.

Was there anywhere else like that?

[YL]

Ballot Box Scotland has the transfers from Arbroath West, Letham & Friockheim:

[YL]

...Friockheim?!?! Ah, I see it was one of those odd planned 19th century industrial villages that Scotland has a surprisingly large number of, thus the highly peculiar name.

Apparently it's a compound of Gaelic fraoch (heather) and German heim.

[YL]

I think recent Scottish local byelections have pretty accurately shown the SNP's decline from previous electoral domination, but I do still suspect they show the Tories doing a bit better than they are likely to in a Westminster election - where Sunak's mob are currently no better regarded than in England.

I think there's evidence of a fairly high "neither SNP nor Tory" vote for an area where politics has been a contest between the two for some time: note the decent increases for both Labour and the Lib Dems, albeit from a low base, and the high rate of exhaustion when the Labour candidate was eliminated.

What that vote will do in a General Election is I think an unknown. It might end up just going Labour or Lib Dem, leading to the potential for either the Tories or SNP to win seats on low vote shares.  (Though this actual ward will be in Arbroath & Broughty Ferry, which is essentially the successor to Dundee East and not a likely Tory seat; the Election Maps UK nowcast has Labour in second there.)

[YL]

S Norfolk DC, Bunwell - Grn gain from C
- The Tories narrowly retained control of S Norfolk DC in the 2023 local elections with the LDs and Labour both having substantial local presences. With this by-election loss, the Tories have lost control of the council; it's unclear if a coalition of all opposition parties will be able to take control. This is the first and only Green seat in South Norfolk and looked quite safe for the Tories even in 2023. The Greens came from nowhere to win the seat (Labour was a distant second in 2023).

This ward is in the new cross-border Waveney Valley constituency, which is a Green target.

[YL]

Not that many for the next few weeks.

Thursday 9 May

Andrew Teale's preview

Ballot Box Scotland's preview

North Ayrshire; Kilwinning

First preferences
Lab  2171 (54.3%, +8.3)
SNP  916 (22.9%, -12.0)
Con 619 (15.5%, -0.1)
Lib Dem  154 (3.9%, -0.4)
Scottish Family Party  136 (3.4%, new)

Lab gain from Con (morally Lab hold) on count 1

[YL]

Everyday life goes on...

Thursday 23 May

Andrew Teale's preview

Melton; Wymondham

Con 233 (65.6%, -6.1)
Ind Seaward 122 (34.4%, new)

Con hold

[YL]

Thursday 30 May

Andrew Teale's preview

Birmingham; Kingstanding

Con 829 (47.9%, +4.6%)
Lab 680 (39.3%, -6.1)
Lib Dem 82 (4.7%, -0.1)
Green 72 (4.2%, no change)
Workers Party of Britain 46 (2.7%, new)
TUSC 20 (1.2%, -0.5)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Con hold

[YL]

Tuesday 4 June

Andrew Teale's preview

Powys; Rhiwcynon

Con 352 (39.9%, new)
Plaid 286 (32.4%, -11.9)
Ind Jones 110 (12.5%, new)
Lib Dem 74 (8.4%, new)
Lab 25 (2.8%, new)
Reform UK 18 (2.0%, new)
Green 13 (1.5%, new)
Ind Markinson 4 (0.5%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Con gain from Ind

[YL]

Thursday 6 June

Andrew Teale's preview

North Lincolnshire; Axholme North

Con 901 (66.9%, +8.7)
Lab 378 (28.1%, -3.9)
Lib Dem 67 (5.0%, new)
(changes from 2023)

Con hold

North Lincolnshire; Brumby

Lab 616 (61.5%, -9.9)
Con 294 (29.3%, +0.7)
Green 49 (4.9%, new)
Lib Dem 43 (4.3%, new)
(changes from 2023)

Lab hold

Telford & Wrekin; The Nedge

Lab 971 (54.4%, +23.4)
Con 464 (26.0%, +14.0)
Lib Dem 175 (9.8%, +5.0)
Ind Vaughan-Hodkinson 175 (9.8%, +6.5)
(changes on 2023 "top vote" treating Independents separately)

Lab hold

Torbay; Wellswood

Con 938 (42.3%, -21.1)
Lib Dem 929 (41.9%, +17.0)
Reform UK 188 (8.5%, new)
Lab 117 (5.3%, new)
Green 34 (1.5%, -10.1)
Ind Moor 11 (0.5%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Con hold

NB the Independent candidate here is intending to stand as a Workers Party candidate in the General Election, but did not use their description in this by-election.

[YL]

Yes, those The Nedge (excellent ward name) changes are nonsense. I still don't think there's a very satisfactory way of calculating percentages in multi-member FPTP with masses of Independents (as the 2023 election here) unless you know the total number of ballot papers.

[YL]

Thursday 13 June

Andrew Teale's preview; BallotBoxScotland's West Dunbartonshire preview; Ballot Box Scotland's Highland preview

Greenwich; Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham

Con 1359 (47.1%, +3.6)
Lab 1101 (38.2%, -5.8
Reform UK 232 (8.0%, +4.6)
Green 101 (3.5%, new)
Lib Dem 90 (3.1%, -6.1)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Con hold

West Dunbartonshire; Clydebank Central

First preferences:
Lab 1398 (49.6%, +9.9)
SNP 1095 (38.9%, -13.5)
Con 125 (4.4%, -3.4)
Ind Muir 87 (3.1%, new)
Lib Dem 52 (1.8%, new)
Communist Party of Britain 47 (1.7%, new)
Sovereignty 12 (0.4%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Fourth count: Lab 1425, SNP 1127, Con 130, Ind Muir 98

Lab hold (morally Lab gain from SNP)

(NB the Communist candidate is the Labour candidate's nephew)

Highland; Tain & Easter Ross

First preferences:
Ind Dundas 895 (36.0%, new)
Lib Dem 621 (25.0%, +0.5 on Sep 2023, +3.5 on 2022)
SNP 630 (25.4%, +6.5 on Sep 2023, -5.6 on 2022)
Con 134 (5.4%, -3.0 on Sep 2023, -5.2 on 2022)
Green 89 (3.6%, +1.3 on Sep 2023, didn't stand in 2022)
Ind Shearer 89 (3.6%, new)
Scottish Libertarian 25 (1.0%, +0.1 on Sep 2023, didn't stand in 2022)

Count 6: Ind Dundas 1179, Lib Dem 890

"Ind hold"

[YL]

Thursday 20 June

Andrew Teale's preview

Sefton; St Oswald

Lab
TUSC
Green
Con
Lib Dem
Workers Party of Britain

Coventry; Radford
(postponed poll from May)

Lab
Con
Green
Lib Dem
Coventry Citizens
TUSC

Oxfordshire County Council; Sutton Courtenay & Marcham

Lib Dem
Con
Lab
Green

South Oxfordshire; Sutton Courtenay

Lib Dem
Con
Lab
Green

Mansfield; West Bank

Con
Lab
Mansfield Independents
Green
Lib Dem
TUSC

Mid Devon; Tiverton Westexe

Lib Dem
Con
Green
Ind Osman