UK local by-elections, 2024

[YL]

Thursday 11 January

Andrew Teale's preview

Salford; Quays

Lib Dem 540 (54.8%, +17.4 on 2023, -5.7 on 2022)
Lab 321 (-12.6 on 2023, +1.4 on 2022)
Green 124 (12.6%, +3.4 on 2023, +4.2 on 2022)

Lib Dem hold

Brighton & Hove; South Portslade

Lab 874 (54.6%, -6.0)
Con 246 (15.4%, +2.9)
Lib Dem 186 (11.6%, +3.0)
Green 149 (9.3%, -2.0)
TUSC 53 (3.3%, new)
Democratic Liberation 49 (3.1%, new)
Ind Gillespie 44 (2.7%, new)

Lab hold

Dorset; Littlemoor & Preston

Con 1237 (53.7%, +26.9)
Lib Dem 833 (36.2%, +20.5)
Lab 232 (10.1%, -7.6)
(changes from 2019 (sic) "top vote")

Con hold
except that the winning candidate is ineligible, so the seat will be left vacant until May

Tendring; Bluehouse

Ind Goldman 181 (30.4%, +13.6)
Con 91 (15.3%, -2.9)
Lab 83 (13.9%, -4.4)
Reform UK 54 (9.1%, new)
Ind Mayzes 52 (8.7%, -2.4)
Ind Bayford 45 (7.6%, new)
UKIP 38 (6.4%, -2.0)
Ind Holland 24 (4.0%, -4.7)
Lib Dem 22 (3.7%, -0.2)
Ind Chittock 6 (1.0%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Ind Goldman gain from Lab; ward now 1 Con, 1 Ind

[YL]

What a very strange affair in Dorset all round.

Yes. It is reminiscent of a case in Sheffield (Walkley ward) in 1992 when Diane Leek (Lib Dem) won a by-election but it then turned out that she was employed indirectly by the council as a school dinner lady, and that this meant she was ineligible. (This is a long time ago, and I was quite young at the time, but I think there was some reason why it wasn't obvious that this counted as ineligibility; note that dinner lady and lollipop man, as in the Dorset case, are quite similar sorts of job.) So there was a second by-election, she resigned from her dinner lady position and, now eligible, stood again, and got a lot more votes than she had first time round. I think that to a lot of the electorate it seems like a ridiculous technicality that that sort of job makes you ineligible to be a councillor, and so (a) there may be a sympathy vote (b) parties who make a fuss about it may be punished for making the fuss.

[YL]

There's also the case of the Winchester by-election in 1997: Mark Oaten* (LibDem) was declared the winner over the incumbent Gerry Malone (Con) by two votes. The count was poorly conducted, and an Election Court unseated Oaten after an election petition was launched by Malone, as it was held that the outcome of the election was uncertain. Oaten won the ensuing by-election by over twenty thousand votes.

_{*Who, despite this, is better known for the ending of his parliamentary career rather than its beginning...}

One interesting thing about that is that as I understand it the evidence suggests that if it hadn't been for incompetence in the running of the election Malone would have won, and yet he still got the "bad loser" treatment. However, it is also the case that the notorious Richard Huggett was on the ballot paper as a fake Lib Dem, and there can be little doubt that most of his votes were intended for the official Lib Dem candidate, so if it hadn't been for him Oaten would have been the clear winner by a few hundred. I think that was part of the reason for the reaction.

However, I think the Lib Dems were right not to launch a challenge in North East Fife in 2017 when the SNP beat them by the same official margin, 2 votes. And I think it would be a bad idea for them to launch a challenge to this result and claim, as per Bristol South East 1961, that the Tory voters knew their candidate was ineligible and so effectively threw away their votes, meaning that the Lib Dem runner up should be declared the winner.

(And of course Bristol South East 1961 is another example showing that voters will happily vote for an ineligible candiate. I presume the reason for that ineligibility was widely considered ridiculous at the time, at least by Labour voters.)

[YL]

Thursday 18 January

Andrew Teale's preview

Sheffield; Stannington

(I live in one of the neighbouring wards, so I wrote my own profile for this one.)

Lib Dem 2258 (52.7%, +0.6 on 2023, +15.9 on 2022, +21.0 on 2021)
Lab 1212 (28.3%, +4.4 on 2023, -0.3 on 2022, -0.7 on 2021)
Con 372 (8.7%, -4.5 on 2023, -5.5 on 2022, -16.1 on 2021)
Green 328 (7.6%, -1.7 on 2023, -7.0 on 2022, -4.2 on 2021)
Liberal 118 (2.8%, new)

Lib Dem hold

Richmond upon Thames; Hampton North

Lib Dem 1177 (53.2%, +19.9%)
Con 779 (35.2%, +11.5)
Lab 151 (6.8%, -1.5)
Green 106 (4.8%, -16.2)
(changes from 2022 "top vote", though it's misleading here as the Lib Dems and Greens had a pact)

Lib Dem gain from Con; ward now 3 Lib Dem

Richmond upon Thames; Teddington

Lib Dem 1716 (64.3%, -2.6)
Con 561 (21.0%, -0.7)
Green 184 (6.9%, new)
Lab 163 (6.1%, -5.4)
Ind Stockford 46 (1.7%, new)
(changes from 2022 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

Wandsworth; Tooting Broadway

Lab 1888 (67.3%, +6.7 on 2022, +5.1 on Jul 2022 by-election)
Con 542 (19.3%, +0.8 on 2022, -2.1 on Jul 2022 by-election)
Green 261 (9.3%, -5.6 on 2022, -3.1 on Jul 2022 by-election)
Lib Dem 113 (4.0%, -2.0 on 2022, -0.1 on Jul 2022 by-election)

Lab hold

Hackney; Cazenove

Con 1623 (53.8%, +47.5)
Lab 935 (31.0%, -12.2)
Green 387 (12.8%, +1.2)
Lib Dem 73 (2.4%, -34.5)
(changes from 2022 "top vote"; NB the Con candidate this time was one of the Lib Dems then)

Con gain from Lab; ward now 2 Lab, 1 Con

Warwick; Warwick All Saints & Woodloes

Lab 961 (52.5%, +8.4)
Con 687 (37.5%, +3.2)
Lib Dem 183 (10.0%, +1.1)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lab hold

[YL]

Cazenove needs some explanation. I think the main point is that the Conservative candidate is a former Lib Dem councillor who obviously had a lot of personal support, especially in the Haredi Jewish community, which is large in this area. (Though the ward is only 24% Jewish, so either he got a fair amount of non-Jewish support as well or there was significant differential turnout.)  The other thing is Labour's candidate problems: their candidate was briefly suspended from the party over "gender critical" social media activity and the campaign stopped; it restarted before election day but this may help to explain why Labour did so badly.

The Hampton North result means that Richmond upon Thames council is now a Tory free zone.

The one on my doorstep wasn't that interesting, but it's a pretty good result for the Lib Dems who improved on an already good result in 2023. Labour did OK compared with last year but their share is only back to about where it was in 2021 and 2022, while the Tories were close to turning the ward into a three way marginal in 2021 (and, while of course we don't have exact figures, may well have been close to carrying this ward in the 2019 General Election) but now slumped into a single figure percentage.

[YL]

Aaargh someone on Twitter referred to Stannington as “Red Wall”.

[YL]

Just one this week, and nothing next week.

Thursday 25 January

Andrew Teale's preview

Stirling; Dunblane & Bridge of Allan

First preferences
Con 1644 (38.3%, -2.6 on March 2023, +8.2 on 2022)
SNP 1000 (23.3%, -3.6 on March 2023, -2.5 on 2022)
Lab 869 (20.3%, +6.8% on March 2023, +8.4 on 2022)
Green 433 (10.1%, +1.4 on March 2023, -5.9 on 2022)
Lib Dem 292 (6.8%, -2.1 on March 2023, -2.6 on 2022)
Scottish Family Party 50 (1.2%, no change on March 2023, +0.5 on 2022)

Ballot Box Scotland's transfer plot:


Con hold

[YL]

An interesting one as in some ways the party who did best was Labour, who still came third. But I wonder what would have happened had they just got a few more transfers from the Lib Dems and Greens and been ahead of the SNP on count 4.

Amusingly the Scottish Family Party also got 50 votes in the 2022 regular election and the March 2023 by-election.

[YL]

Ballot Box Scotland's chart of second preferences for each first preference in Dunblane & Bridge of Allan:



Labour were the Tories' most common second preference, but not the reverse this time: that was the Lib Dems and the Tories only just ahead of the Greens. Quite a lot of Tory votes were non-transferable, which I don't find very surprising, but maybe people are less likely to transfer when they expect their first preference to win. Note also the respectable rates from both the SNP and Greens to Labour, and also from the Greens to the Lib Dems. The Family sample is of course small; that's only 9 voters going 1 Family, 2 Green.

[YL]

Thursday 8 February

Andrew Teale's preview

Blaenau Gwent; Ebbw Vale South

Ind Millard 239 (60.4%, +37.9)
Lab 124 (31.3%, +6.5)
Green 33 (8.3%, new)
(changes from 2022 “top vote” counting independents separately, so as usual take them with a bit of a pinch of salt)

Ind Millard gain from Ind Bainton, who joined Labour shortly after being elected; ward now 1 Ind, 1 Lab

Gwynedd; Criccieth

Plaid 381 (71.9%, +30.4)
Ind Allport 129 (24.3%, new)
Lib Dem 11 (2.1%, new)
Con 9 (1.7%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Plaid gain from Ind

Cheshire East; Crewe Central

Con 335 (43.3%, +19.9)
Lab 277 (35.8%, -18.9)
Putting Crewe First 128 (16.5%, +1.1)
Women's Equality 22 (2.8%, new)
Green 12 (1.6%, new)

(changes from 2023)

Con gain from Lab

West Northamptonshire; East Hunsbury & Shelfleys

Lib Dem 820 (38.8%, +15.8)
Con 746 (35.3%, -16.9)
Lab 547 (25.9%, +1.2)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem gain from Con; ward now 2 Con, 1 Lib Dem

[YL]

Um, Earth calling Crewe?

Apparently the Tory candidate made no mention of his party affiliation in his campaign materials, though it will of course have been on the ballot paper. Labour also lost a seat to the Tories in the town last May, so there may be some underlying issue.

[YL]

Um, Earth calling Crewe?

Apparently the Tory candidate made no mention of his party affiliation in his campaign materials, though it will of course have been on the ballot paper. Labour also lost a seat to the Tories in the town last May, so there may be some underlying issue.

Similar campaigning tactics to what won the Tories a seat in Hackney last month.

The council was controversial when it was Tory led before last year's election, and remains so as one that is Labour led now. Indeed the council leader himself is under investigation for misconduct.

I also suspect that Crewe is prone to feeling ignored by the council. It feels like the sort of place which is not very well served by the big unitary model, especially the way it's been implemented in Cheshire which throws it into an oddly drawn council area dominated by prosperous outer Mancunia.

[YL]

Thursday 15 February

Andrew Teale's previews (after the Parliamentary Specials)

Kingston upon Hull; Avenue

Lib Dem 1186 (45.7%, +9.7 on 2023, +4.3 on 2022, -1.2 on 2021)
Lab 1029 (39.7%, -11.3 on 2023, -8.3 on 2022, +5.1 on 2021)
Green 198 (7.6%, -2.5 on 2023, no change on 2022, -2.1 on 2021)
Ind Whale 139 (5.4%, new)
Con 43 (1.7%, -1.2 on 2023, -1.2 on 2022, -3.3 on 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Lab; ward now 2 Lib Dem, 1 Lab

Neath Port Talbot; Briton Ferry East

Lab 287 (52.4%, +8.1)
Ind Pemberton 234 (42.7%, new)
Green 27 (4.9%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Lab gain from Ind

Neath Port Talbot; Rhos

Ind Woolford 494 (52.1%, new)
Plaid 242 (25.5%, -29.2)
Lab 137 (14.5%, -30.8)
Lib Dem 60 (6.3%, new)
Green 15 (1.6%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Ind Woolford gain from Plaid

Dacorum; Tring West & Rural

Lib Dem 899 (62.7%, +12.8)
Con 303 (21.1%, -3.0)
Green 122 (8.5%, -9.6)
Lab 109 (7.6%, -0.3)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

East Hampshire; Four Marks & Medstead

Lib Dem 1212 (62.2%, +18.9)
Con 736 (37.8%, -2.3)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

[YL]

Thursday 22 February

Andrew Teale's preview

Buckinghamshire; Farnham Common & Burnham Beeches

Con 860 (51.8%, +0.9)
Lib Dem 689 (41.5%, +9.8)
Lab 111 (6.7%, -7.1)
(changes from 2021)

Con hold

Buckinghamshire; Hazlemere

Con 687 (36.5%, -5.6)
Ind Casey 653 (34.8%, new)
Lib Dem 426 (22.7%, +13.1)
Lab 113 (6.0%, -3.2)
(changes from 2021)

Con hold

Wiltshire; Calne Chilvester & Abberd

Lib Dem 424 (45.3%, +18.1)
Con 283 (30.2%, -16.8)
Lab 172 (18.4%, +3.7)
Green 58 (6.2%, -5.0)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Con

Milton Keynes; Loughton & Shenley

Lab 1136 (46.2%, -2.3 on 2023, -5.7 on 2022, -2.4 on 2021)
Con 971 (39.5%, +0.9 on 2023, +1.7 on 2022, -2.9 on 2021)
Lib Dem 179 (7.3%, -0.4 on 2023, +1.7 on 2022, +2.7 on 2021)
Green 113 (4.6%, -0.6 on 2023, -0.1 on 2022, +0.1 on 2021)
Ind Brady 61 (2.5%, new)

Lab hold

Scottish Borders; Jedburgh & District

First preferences:
Con 1377 (58.5%, +8.2)
SNP 410 (17.4%, -5.7)
Lab 241 (10.2%, new)
Lib Dem 166 (7.1%, new)
Green 135 (5.7%, -1.4)
Scottish Eco-Federalist 25 (1.1%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Con gain fron SNP on first preferences; ward now 3 Con

Derbyshire Dales; Bakewell

Lab 467 (37.7%, +13.8)
Con 452 (36.5%, -9.5)
Lib Dem 161 (13.0%, +4.9)
Green 73 (5.9%, -12.7)
Reform UK 50 (4.0%, new)
Ind Elnaugh 36 (2.9%, -5.1)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lab gain from Con; ward now 1 Lab 1 Con

Derbyshire Dales; Norbury

Con 317 (63.1%, -4.2)
Lab 75 (14.9%, -1.9)
Green 65 (12.9%, -3.0)
Lib Dem 45 (9.0%, new)

Con hold

Folkestone & Hythe; Romney Marsh

Con 375 (24.2%, +0.2)
Green 332 (21.4%, +8.2)
Lab 295 (19.0%, -0.8)
Reform UK 237 (15.3%, new)
Ind Peacock 155 (10.0%, new)
Ind Evans 62 (4.0%, new)
Ind Meyers 51 (3.3%, -13.4)
Ind Young 31 (2.0%, -0.2)
Lib Dem 11 (0.7%, -5.3)

Con hold

[YL]

I checked yesterday and I don't think Labour have ever won Bakewell before.

Possibly a little disappointing for the Lib Dems in Buckinghamshire, though obviously not in Wiltshire.

[YL]

This may well be unionist confirmation bias talking. But my skepticism about that Mirror MRP polling predicting a Scottish Tory wipeout is deepened by results in the Borders like this. .

I mean, if they’re still winning wards like Jedburgh by 40%, while the SNP vote falls back, it’s very hard to see the Roxburgh seat as all that vulnerable.

The Galloway seat, West Aberdeenshire - could be real fights if the SNP plan to offset expected losses in Edinburgh, Glasgow and Fife, rather than go on the defensive. But Roxburgh, and Banff and Buchan seem like they’ve got some breathing room.

_{(Requisite disclaimer - Jedburgh is a Tory ward, and 2/3 councillors were already Conservatives. This was likely going to result in a Tory win, because STV can’t save the SNP in an FPTP by-election, and the Tory candidate was a former independent with a strong personal vote when he ran in 2022. Any commentary is based on the scale of the win, in the face of reduced conservative numbers in Scotland-specific polling)}

I’d even suggest that in the fabled “Canada 1993” outcome Berwickshire et al might be one of the survivors.

[YL]

Thursday 29 February

Andrew Teale's preview (after the Parliamentary Special)

East Riding of Yorkshire; Minster & Woodmansley

Lib Dem 1438 (50.7%, +8.6)
Con 706 (24.9%, -1.9)
Lab 495 (17.4%, -9.4)
Green 198 (7.0%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

East Riding of Yorkshire; Tranby

Lib Dem 958 (55.3%, +4.4)
Lab 408 (23.6%, +2.7)
Con 268 (15.5%, -4.2)
Green 97 (5.6%, -2.9)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem hold

Great Yarmouth; Central & Northgate

Lab 482 (52.6%, +6.2)
Con 296 (32.3%, +7.7)
Lib Dem 139 (15.2%, +3.4)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lab hold

Horsham; Henfield

Green 668 (44.2%, +18.8
Con 569 (37.7%, +13.0)
Lab 215 (14.2%, -5.2)
Lib Dem 59 (3.9%, -2.4)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Green gain from Ind; ward now 1 Green, 1 Con

Horsham; Southwater North

Con 618 (49.0%, +11.1)
Lib Dem 388 (30.8%, -13.0)
Green 162 (12.9%, +3.9)
Lab 92 (7.3%, -2.0)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Con gain from Lib Dem; ward now 1 Lib Dem, 1 Con

[YL]

This week has a Wednesday one:

Wednesday 6 March

Andrew Teale's preview

Carmarthenshire; Elli

Ind Williams 211 (33.9%, new)
Con 151 (24.2%, +16.4)
Lab 145 (23.3%, -3.4)
Plaid 48 (7.7%, -2.7)
UKIP 27 (4.3%, new)
Ind Burdess 23 (3.7%, new)
Lib Dem 16 (2.6%, new)
Gwlad 2 (0.3%, new)
(changes from 2022)

"Ind hold"

[YL]

Thursday 7 March

Andrew Teale's preview

Mayor of Lewisham

Lab 21576 (51.5%, -6.5)
Green 6835 (16.3%, +0.3)
Lib Dem 4896 (11.7%, +1.9)
Con 3784 (9.1%, -2.5)
Workers Party of Britain 2378 (5.7%, new)
Christian People's Alliance 1233 (2.9%, +1.4)
Ind Long 917 (2.2%, new)
(changes from 2022; NB that was SV, though decided on the first count, and this was FPTP)

Lab hold

Glasgow; Hillhead

First preferences:
Lab 1298 (31.9%, +9.7)
Green 1284 (31.5%, -4.7)
SNP 1015 (24.9%, -3.7)
Con 217 (5.3%, -1.4)
Independent Green Voice 133 (3.3%, new)
Lib Dem 106 (2.6%, -2.8)
Ind McGinley 22 (0.5%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Count 6:
Green 1908
Lab 1721

Green gain from Lab; ward now 2 Green, 1 SNP
(morally a Green hold, as they'd have won a single member election in 2022)

Bridgend; Aberkenfig

Lab 291 (55.2%, +26.3)
Ind Richards 236 (44.8%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Lab gain from Plaid who did not defend the seat

Mid Devon; Upper Yeo & Taw

Lib Dem 405 (52.2%, +10.9)
Con 226 (29.1%, -14.4)
Lab 91 (11.7%, -3.6)
Green 54 (7.0%, new)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Lib Dem gain from Con; ward now 2 Lib Dem

[YL]

Two votes <snicker>

Gwlad are a curious outfit, though not one the electorate seem to be particularly curious about.

[YL]

Hillhead is the Scottish Greens' first ever by-election win. Undoubtably this would have been no change (1 Green, 1 Lab, 1 SNP) for a 3 seat STV election.

Here's Ballot Box Scotland's usual plot of the transfers:

[YL]

Thursday 14 March

Andrew Teale's preview

Wiltshire; Cricklade & Latton

Lib Dem 1030 (76.0%, +13.9)
Con 253 (18.7%, -19.2)
Lab 45 (3.3%, new)
Green 27 (2.0%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem hold

Lancaster; Castle

Green 524 (65.0%, +6.2)
Lab 212 (26.3%, -3.0)
Con 43 (5.3%, -1.8)
Lib Dem 27 (3.3%, -1.7)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

Green hold

[YL]

Not the most interesting week, but I imagine the Lib Dem candidate for South Cotswolds enjoyed it.

Warning: I may not be able to post these for the next couple of weeks so would appreciate it if someone could fill in.

[YL]

Just a minor quibble - the percentages in Lancaster add up to 100.4% I think?

Fixed.

[YL]

Thursday 4 April

Andrew Teale's preview

Cornwall; Looe West, Pelynt, Lansallos & Lanteglos

Lib Dem 604 (44.8%, -16.6)
Con 414 (30.7%, +0.4)
Lab 254 (18.9%, +10.6)
Green (5.6%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem hold

North Northamptonshire; Desborough

Con 1485 (47.3%, +7.5)
Lab 1054 (33.6%, +6.1)
Green 368 (11.7%, +2.7)
Lib Dem 234 (7.4%, -2.3)
(changes from 2021 "top vote")

Con hold

Wealden; Uckfield New Town

Ind French 582 (37.0%, new)
Lab 578 (36.7%, -7.5)
Con 413 (26.3%, +0.3)
(changes from 2023 "top vote")

"Ind hold"; ward remains 1 Lab, 1 Ind