UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[YL]

Of course what this by-election now needs is Mrs Bone standing as an independent.

[YL]

Labours move is made harder by the fact the Bristol NE PPC is currently the Mayor of Lewisham (he grew up in Bristol and beat the v unpopular mayor of Bristol in the selection) and it’s rumoured that Dan Norris might run against Mogg- he’s the current mayor of the south west and is (I assume) up for re-election.

So might be tempting for labour to find some staffer or councillor to run as a placeholder…

Norris is not due for re-election until 2025.

Labour might do better to look for someone who will stand firstly in this byelection and then in the redrawn NE Somerset, which will take in about a third of the current Kingswood. Yes this means some of the latter membership won't get to choose their candidate this time round, but something like that may be unavoidable in the circumstances.

I thought that the reason for the mention of Norris was that there had already been a suggestion that he might stand against Rees-Mogg in NE Somerset & Hanham.  He was MP for the old Wansdyke constituency, which was the predecessor to Rees-Mogg's current seat but also included some areas on the Gloucestershire side of the Avon.  (Bizarrely, the 1983-97 version extended as far north as Emersons Green and almost to Frenchay, though Norris took over in 1997 when it only included Bitton and Hanham Abbots, immediately north of the river.)

PS Skidmore wrote to Jeremy Hunt today formally resigningrequesting appointment to Northstead or the Chiltern Hundreds.

[YL]

After nearly seven months of Johnson and then Dorries, that's got to be an upgrade for the Chiltern Hundreds.

[YL]

Kingswood is an interesting constituency, in that the Boundary Commission are (or, rather, were) keen on the name and gave it to a serious of very different constituencies throughout successive reviews. The first Kingswood constituency (1974-83) covered much the same territory as the present one, with one very significant difference: it included Mangotsfield. It was a socially mixed marginal constituency with a slight Labour lean and went Labour narrowly in the first 1974 election (3.4% majority), a little less narrowly in the second (5.4% majority) and Conservative by a hair in 1979 (0.6% majority). The Conservative MP elected in 1979 had actually been the Liberal candidate in both 1974 elections. The second Kingswood constituency (1983-97) was radically different: half of it was actually in Bristol (drawn from various places in the East of the city, including the St George district and the Hillfields estate) and only Mangotsfield and Kingswood were included from the previous Kingswood constituency. It was a very working class constituency and 'ought' to have been a safely Labour one, but such were Labour's woes in and around Bristol in the 1980s that they only won it in 1992. The Conservative MP elected in 1979 moved (along with the rest of the first Kingswood constituency) to the new and bizarrely drawn Wansdyke constituency. The the third Kingswood constituency (1997-2010) ended up being a compromise between the first two: large tracts of newer, outer suburbs were brought back in from Wansdyke and the St George district was transferred to Bristol East, but a city element was retained (including Hillfields) and many of those outer suburban areas remained in a notably less silly version of Wansdyke.

Sometimes when looking at old constituency boundary maps I really wonder what they were thinking. That 1983-97 version of Wansdyke is a case in point.

Anyway, Labour have selected Damien Egan as candidate for the by-election.  He's the Mayor of Lewisham (so presumably there will be a by-election for that post if he wins) and had already been selected as candidate for the new Bristol North East, the seat that if the 1980s Commission had been drawing they'd have called Kingswood: it's not dissimilar to the 1983-97 version described above, but it includes Lockleaze and Eastville rather than St George and there are a few differences in the South Gloucestershire bit as well.

[YL]

Sometimes when looking at old constituency boundary maps I really wonder what they were thinking. That 1983-97 version of Wansdyke is a case in point.

Only old constituencies? The last three attempts at boundary reviews weren’t exactly sensible at times. Mersey Banks sums it up in two words.

I never said only...

Though at least Mersey Banks and the other horrors of that attempted review never actually came to pass. The other thing is that I followed those reviews so I do actually have some idea of their thinking even if I didn't agree with it, whereas I have no idea how that version of Wansdyke, say, was arrived at. See Sheffield 1955-74 for another example: why, just why?

[YL]

The wrong decision.

May narrow the margin a little given the focus on him being a London mayor, and it also suggests Labour are not seriously targeting Mogg given they’d want an incumbent in place to challenge him in the redrawn seat.

The latter fits with my feeling that Labour are still being quite cautious about longshot targets. But there are a couple of other explanations: one is that Egan was essentially a ready to go candidate whereas they haven't selected yet in NE Somerset & Hanham; another is that if Dan Norris really is expected to be the candidate there he already has the name recognition so there's not so much point in getting him to Westminster early.

[YL]

The 1955-74 Sheffield map makes a degree of sense when you consider that the physical shape of the city was just very different in 1955 (it still followed the 19th century pattern of growth, with housing and industry hugging the valleys) though there are still a few strange details, which presumably relate to how the wards were drawn. Doesn't half look bizarre when superimposed on the physical shape of the city c. 2024 though.

I've considered the different pattern of development before and come to the conclusion that it makes it a bit less weird, but doesn't really absolve it of weirdness (especially regarding Burngreave). My suspicion is that it's a combination of oddities in the ward boundaries and the tendency boundary commissions have, when they need to cut a seat, to select one to be carved up (the 1950-55 Neepsend in this case) and attach bits of it to the neighbouring seats in a way that doesn't necessarily make much sense. The 1950-55 map has some oddities, but it's distinctly less weird than the 1955-74 one, and the 1918-50 one is really quite good once you take account of the different city boundaries and population distribution.

Arguably different patterns of development might help to explain Wansdyke a little too, e.g. Emersons Green didn't exist. But again I'm not convinced that it really made sense even taking that into account.

[YL]

The writs have been moved today for both Wellingborough and Kingswood. Polling day should be Thursday 15 February.

[YL]

Deadline for nominations is the coming Friday, quite a tight timetable.

Only in Kingswood; for Wellingborough it's Tuesday the week after.

[YL]

How come the two are different if they are polling on the same day?

Because the relevant councils made different choices about the timetable. There is some flexibility in the timetable for by-elections and the close of nominations can be 17 (as in Wellingborough), 18, or 19 (as in Kingswood) working days before polling day.

North Northamptonshire's Wellingborough page, showing close of nominations on the 23rd
South Gloucestershire's Kingswood page. showing close of nominations on the 19th

[YL]

The Tories have selected their group leader on South Gloucestershire Council, Sam Bromiley, as their candidate for Kingswood. Of the three successor seats, they had already selected a different candidate for Bristol North East (which is pretty hopeless for them anyway) and have sitting MPs likely to contest NE Somerset & Hanham and Filton & Sadly Broke so I don't know what they do if he wins...

[YL]

Reform UK have U turned on not standing a candidate in Kingswood and will now be standing the former Brexit Party MEP and Southampton FC chairman Rupert Lowe.

I’m still egging on Conservatopia to stand, though.

[YL]

Just six candidates for Kingswood:

Sam Bromiley (Con)
Andrew Brown (Lib Dem)
Damien Egan (Lab)
Lorraine Francis (Green)
Rupert Lowe (Reform UK)
Nicholas Wood (UKIP)

[YL]

I'm curious whether demographically over the last 4 years there would have been any change in the Catholic vs Protestant population in that seat. Seems like the general trend in NI is for the Protestant share of the population to be steadily shrinking

Slowly shrinking, I think, but not enough to make very much difference. Ken Maginnis actually won an absolute majority of the vote in his last election in 1997, which was the first election after boundary changes removed Coalisland from the constituency, but since then the Unionists have only come out on top in 2015, which is also the only election where the total Unionist share increased from the previous one.

Sinn Féin seem to have lost some votes to the SDLP there in 2019, perhaps because of abstentionism being an issue in the last Parliament (though there may be other reasons). If they can get that back they should be OK.

Anyway, this should be less contentious than the last two Fermanagh & South Tyrone by-elections.

(All assuming it happens, of course. It's not clear that she'll actually resign her seat before the Euro election, and even with a late -- November or later -- General Election date that's getting pretty close to the point at which seats could reasonably just be left vacant. And she might not get elected...)

[YL]

What % of the electorate in Rochdale is likely to be Muslim?

The population is 30.5% Muslim (2021 census), the 18th highest in the country. The figure for the electorate is probably a little lower than that.

(Batley & Spen, for comparison, is 23.1% Muslim.)

[YL]

What % of the electorate in Rochdale is likely to be Muslim?

The population is 30.5% Muslim (2021 census), the 18th highest in the country. The figure for the electorate is probably a little lower than that.

(Batley & Spen, for comparison, is 23.1% Muslim.)

Yes, it's high, but not as high as people are apt to think (the misconception comes from the usual Pennine levels of residential segregation of course). It is largely Pakistani but there is also a Bengali community centered on the Wardleworth district. The Pakistani community in particular was an important source of support for the Liberals when the constituency was in the oversized pocket of the now disgraced MP Cyril Smith and was an important swing block in local elections. Substantial movement to Labour allowed the seat to be finally gained in 1997; a swing back due to Iraq was enough for it to be narrowly lost in 2005 and the lessening of that meant a narrow gain against the grain in 2010. The local LibDems then collapsed due to a combination of the usual Coalition-era issues in lower-income constituencies and the revelations about Smith, which tarnished the brand considerably.

Before 2010, wasn't it already regarded as notionally Labour following the boundary changes? Of course it received some attention in that election.

[YL]

11 candidates for Wellingborough

Nick The Flying Brick (OMRLP)
Ana Savage Gunn (Lib Dem)
Ben Habib (Reform UK)
Helen Jane Harrison (Con) [1]
Ankit Love Jknpp Jay Mala Post-Mortem (no description) [2]
Gen Kitchen (Lab)
Alex Merola (Britain First)
Will Morris (Green)
Andre Pyne-Bailey (Independent) [3]
Marion Eileen Turner-Hawes (no description) [4]
Kev Watts (Independent) [5]

[1] Nominated by Mrs Bone
[2] Yes, that's what it says. No longer the Emperor of India, apparently. (Some explanation of what is going on may be found here)
[3] Not found anything yet.
[4] Wellingborough town councillor and "Save the Trees" campaigner. Green candidate in the constituency in 2019 and 2015.
[5] Irchester parish councillor and former Labour member; stood for Wellingborough DC as Labour in 2015.

[YL]

Surprised Galloway hasn’t already thrown his fedora into the ring, tbh.

What has he been doing since his loss in Batley and Spen?

Spreading antisemitic dogwhistles and threatening to run for London Mayor - so just the usual.

Also in April 2022 he got flagged on Twitter as "Russian state-affiliated media".

[YL]

What % of the electorate in Rochdale is likely to be Muslim?

The population is 30.5% Muslim (2021 census), the 18th highest in the country. The figure for the electorate is probably a little lower than that.

(Batley & Spen, for comparison, is 23.1% Muslim.)

Yes, it's high, but not as high as people are apt to think (the misconception comes from the usual Pennine levels of residential segregation of course). It is largely Pakistani but there is also a Bengali community centered on the Wardleworth district.

You of course will know this but it is worth pointing out that like most Metropolitan Boroughs which are named after towns, the Borough of Rochdale contains various places which weren't part of Rochdale before 1974 and which will still regard themselves as separate places. The more easterly ones, Milnrow, Newhey, Littleborough and Wardle, were in the Littleborough & Saddleworth constituency between 1983 and 1997 but are now all in this constituency, and they are all quite white.

The others, Heywood and Middleton, of course have their own constituency. However it should also be noted that when Littleborough & Saddleworth was abolished some western areas of Rochdale proper, including some of its more middle class bits, were added to Heywood & Middleton. More followed in 2010, and the coming changes are going to move even more into what will now be called Heywood & Middleton North but will contain quite a chunk of Rochdale town. (The existing boundaries will be used for the by-election.)

[YL]

Labour shortlist for Rochdale:

Azhar Ali, Lancashire county councillor (Nelson East division)
Nazia Rehman, Wigan councillor (Abram ward)
Paul Waugh, political journalist (will he beat Seb Payne to a selection?)

[YL]

Tbh that shortlist looks rather good for him, whether by accident or design - and I do suspect that the decision not to include any *local* councillors was deliberate.

Judging by the campaign materials of his rivals Waugh should win by simply turning up.

I imagine that was the idea.

[YL]

Uh oh. Galloway says he's standing in Rochdale.

By my count this will be the eighth essentially different constituency he's been a candidate in.

[YL]

with how by elections have been going lately i just assume Labour will win them. the big question is do they hold these constituencies at the next general election?

Assuming they do win the by-elections I think Labour will get a small boost in the general election, but only a small one. They didn't hold Corby in 2015, and they also didn't hold any of their gains in the 1987-92 Parliament at the 1992 election, though they did come very close in Vale of Glamorgan. Additionally, the major boundary changes in the Kingswood area will dilute any effect there to the point of invisibility, and the constituency which takes the largest part, Bristol North East, should be safe for Labour anyway.

For the Lib Dems and their predecessors, on the other hand, holding by-election gains long term has been a significant part of how they've accumulated seats. The obvious topical example is Rochdale: the Liberals won it from Labour in a 1972 by-election (the victor being the now infamous Cyril Smith) and held it for 25 years. The boundary changes affect their chances a bit too, by dismembering Tiverton & Honiton and adding Gerrards Cross to Chesham & Amersham (though that last thing may not be quite the boon for the Tories it once would have been), but North Shropshire is now a plausible Lib Dem seat in the next Parliament in a way which it never would have been if it hadn't been for the by-election.

[YL]

with how by elections have been going lately i just assume Labour will win them. the big question is do they hold these constituencies at the next general election?

Assuming they do win the by-elections I think Labour will get a small boost in the general election, but only a small one. They didn't hold Corby in 2015, and they also didn't hold any of their gains in the 1987-92 Parliament at the 1992 election, though they did come very close in Vale of Glamorgan.

Yes, but those were elections Labour LOST.

Unless you think that is going to happen again, something like 1997 might be a better comparison - when the Tories recouped just a single one of their byelection defeats (Christchurch)

I wasn't suggesting that the Tories would win them back, just that the boost from the by-elections wouldn't be that big. So the swing might be a little above a typical one for those seats, but not by that much. In a 1992 or 2015 scenario that translates to not winning them.

[YL]

Well, here are my thoughts on each of the constituencies which have changed hands in by-elections this Parliament.

Hartlepool A lot has changed since that one. Based on current polling I'd expect a straightforward Labour regain, though I do feel that if the Tories recovered into hung parliament territory they might hold on here. There are no boundary changes.

Chesham & Amersham Boundary changes remove some relatively rural territory around Great Missenden, and add Gerrards Cross (upmarket and traditionally very Tory commuter town) and Hazlemere (a rather boring High Wycombe suburb). I suspect this harms the Lib Dems a little, mainly because it brings in people who didn't vote in the by-election, but on current polling I doubt the Tories get enough to win it back, given that it'll be very obvious who to vote for to beat them. There is a Buckinghamshire council by-election pending in Hazlemere which might be worth keeping an eye on.

North Shropshire Anecdotally Helen Morgan seems to be a popular MP, and if anything the minor boundary changes help her, as the areas removed are likely to be relatively strong for the Tories. On current polling I think she holds on, though this is not obviously a natural seat for the modern Lib Dems.

Wakefield The constituency is split in two. The parts of Wakefield proper in the seat go to Wakefield & Rothwell, which would have been low hanging fruit for Labour even without the by-election, while the rest goes to Ossett & Denby Dale, which is considerably more challenging but still winnable. Simon Lightwood has made the obvious choice, and given the split I doubt the by-election will add much to Labour's chances in O & DD, but in a landslide they're winning it anyway.

Tiverton & Honiton This is another case where the seat has been split. Some goes to Tiverton & Minehead, which I suspect will go Tory, but the bulk joins with parts of the current East Devon to form Honiton & Sidmouth, and Richard Foord is standing there. I think Honiton & Sidmouth is a bit unpredictable: there's no Lib Dem tradition in the added areas, which have been Tory since 1835, but Claire Wright's independent campaign suggests some latent non-Tory potential which the Lib Dems might be able to exploit. Still I think this is a relatively likely Tory win.

Selby & Ainsty Labour are helped by the boundary changes, which remove the "Ainsty" area and Tadcaster and add the usually Labour (at least locally) Kippax & Methley ward of Leeds, and if they're winning a majority I suspect Keir Mather holds on here.

Somerton & Frome This is another one with major boundary changes. Sarah Dyke is standing in the new Glastonbury & Somerton, which would look like a plausible Lib Dem gain even without the by-election, and I think she wins. The other seat, Frome & East Somerset, is complicated, but possibly the by-election will help Lib Dems claim that they're the challengers.

Rutherglen & Hamilton West The new Rutherglen would be one of the most obvious Labour targets in Scotland even without the by-election. Michael Shanks should hold on here.

Mid Bedfordshire The Labour winner Alistair Strathern lives in Shefford, which is being moved into the new Hitchin seat, which looked a more plausible Labour gain, and he is standing there; perhaps his incumbency will help Labour a little, though he's only the incumbent in a minority of the seat. The rump Mid Beds looks challenging for Labour even in a landslide, though the Tory performance in the by-election was so awful as to give pause for thought.

Tamworth Boundary changes are fairly minor. The Tories were on over 40% even in the by-election (the only one of their losses this is true of) and I suspect they will win this back.