UK parliamentary boundary review

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Kent

As Sussex gets a Sussex Weald, Kent gets a Weald of Kent, a new seat which covers a lot of mostly rural territory in the south of the county between Tunbridge Wells and Ashford.  The largest single part of it comes from the existing Ashford constituency, including the town of Tenterden; without it Ashford gains some rural territory to the east of the town from Folkestone & Hythe.

Another large part of Weald of Kent comes from Maidstone & the Weald, and Maidstone now is in a much more compact constituency called Maidstone & Malling, taking East and West Malling from Tonbridge & Malling, whose name thus becomes simply Tonbridge.

In the east of the county, the Thanet seats are completetly reorganised.  South Thanet loses Sandwich and gains the rest of Margate and is renamed East Thanet, while North Thanet takes Sandwich and is renamed Herne Bay & Sandwich, also gaining some territory from Canterbury.

There are only minor changes to the remaining constituencies, including the Medway area ones, though Chatham & Aylesford becomes a bit more urban, by gaining territory from Rochester & Strood.

As for partisan effects, the new Weald of Kent seat looks monstrously Tory.  Its creation and the knock-on effects do turn Ashford and Folkestone & Hythe into Labour long shots, though probably no more than that.  Elsewhere, the new East Thanet looks significantly easier for Labour than the old South; the flip side of that is that Herne Bay & Sandwich is safer for the Tories than the old North Thanet (not that Labour won that even in 1997).  Canterbury becomes slightly safer for Labour.  The changes to Rochester & Strood make that a little easier for Labour to win, but it's still a long way off.

I'm mildly surprised that Labour didn't try to get a rearrangement of the seats round Medway, by recreating the old Rochester & Chatham and putting Aylesford with Strood, which would have given them a seat in Medway that they ought to win in an even year.

Possibly they felt it wouldn't have had a chance, given "minimum change" criteria, and so wasn't worth proposing?

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South and South-West London
i.e. the boroughs of Southwark, Lambeth, Croydon, Wandsworth, Sutton, Kingston upon Thames and Richmond upon Thames

An extra constituency is created in South London by splitting Streatham into two.  The northern part joins with parts of Vauxhall to form Clapham & Brixton Hill, while the southern part crosses the border into Croydon to form Streatham & Croydon North.  With its southern part lost, Vauxhall adds the Southwark wards of Newington and Camberwell Green and becomes Vauxhall & Camberwell Green, while Camberwell & Peckham takes territory from the oversized Bermondsey & Old Southwark and loses some southern territory as well as Camberwell Green, with its name simplified to Peckham.  That southern territory, along with eastern parts of Dulwich & West Norwood, goes into Lewisham West & East Dulwich (see Kentish London post).

In Croydon, Croydon North, with its northern end lost to the new seat, becomes Croydon West, while Croydon South and Croydon Central exchange some territory, with the latter renamed Croydon East.  In Merton, Mitcham & Morden gains Cannon Hill from Wimbledon, which extends into Kingston, taking the Old Malden area from Kingston & Surbiton, which in turn takes Coombe Vale from Richmond Park.  Staying in Richmond, one ward is transferred from Twickenham to Brentford & Isleworth.

In Wandsworth, Fairfield ward (on the old boundaries, not the current ones) is transferred from Battersea to Putney, while there are no significant changes to the two Sutton constituencies.

Lambeth is another area of enormous Labour majorities, so the new Clapham & Brixton Hill and Streatham & Croydon North are both safe for them.  The knock-on effects do make Croydon East a little more marginal than the existing Central.  Elsewhere the main partisan effect seems to be that the Lib Dems will find it easier to paint themselves as the main challenger to the Tories in Wimbledon.

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Central and West London
i.e. the City and the boroughs of Westminster, Brent, Kensington & Chelsea, Hammersmith & Fulham, Ealing, Hounslow and Hillingdon

Westminster North is carved up: the Regent's Park area goes to Cities of London & Westminster, the Bayswater area joins Kensington, renamed Kensington & Bayswater, and the rest joins much of the Brent part of Hampstead & Kilburn and parts of Brent Central to become a new constituency called Queen's Park & Maida Vale.  In Brent, Brent Central extends further north at the expense of Brent North, which shifts south in turn, and loses Queensbury ward to Harrow East; the seats are renamed Brent East and Brent West respectively.

Chelsea & Fulham extends a little further into Hammersmith & Fulham, taking territory from Hammersmith, which gains Chiswick from Brentford & Isleworth and is re-named Hammersmith & Chiswick.  The Old Oak area in the north of Hammersmith goes to Ealing Central & Acton, which in turn loses one ward to Ealing Southall.  Without Chiswick, Brentford & Isleworth gains one Richmond ward north of the river from Twickenham and Heston East from Feltham & Heston, which is otherwise unchanged.

Uxbridge & South Ruislip gains Ickenham from Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner, with a small area north of South Ruislip going the other way.

Again, many seats in this area have such big Labour majorities even in 2019 that the changes can have little real effect.  Westminster North used to be thought of as marginal, but the new Queen's Park & Maida Vale is rock solid.  The addition of Bayswater to Kensington only has a small effect on this very marginal (in both 2017 and 2019) seat; Electoral Calculus thinks it moves slightly to the Tories.  Cities of London & Westminster certainly does move further to the Tories, but Chelsea & Fulham becomes slightly more winnable for Labour.  Finally, if Labour do win Uxbridge & South Ruislip in the by-election it becomes slightly harder to hold, and Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner is still a very long shot, but becomes slightly less of one.

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North London
i.e. the boroughs of Islington, Camden, Hackney, Haringey, Enfield, Barnet and Harrow

Hampstead & Kilburn loses its Brent component (see Central and West London) and gains the northern end of Holborn & St Pancras and Highgate ward of Haringey to revive Hampstead & Highgate.  Islington South & Finsbury gains De Beauvoir ward in Hackney from Hackney South & Shoreditch, which exchanges areas with Hackney North & Stoke Newington, which then loses a couple of wards to Tottenham.

Hornsey & Wood Green loses Wood Green and instead extends into Barnet, becoming Hornsey & Friern Barnet; it also takes Harringay ward from Tottenham.  Wood Green then joins the bulk of Enfield Southgate in a strangely shaped constituency called Southgate & Wood Green.  Most of the rest of Enfield Southgate is added to Edmonton, which is renamed Edmonton & Winchmore Hill.  Chipping Barnet loses Friern Barnet but gains Edgwarebury from Hendon.  In Harrow, the changes are not major, but Wealdstone is united in Harrow West and Harrow East gains Queensbury ward from Brent North.

The Camden, Islington, Hackney and Haringey seats are all pretty much rock solid for Labour at least on 2019 numbers, so there the changes here have little partisan effect, though it's possible to imagine that Hampstead & Highgate might be more vulnerable in a future election where Labour's position among urban professionals is weaker.  The change from Enfield Southgate to Southgate & Wood Green takes the Tories out of contention; Edmonton & Winchmore Hill on the other hand is not as safe as Edmonton was but it was comfortably Labour even in 2019.  In Barnet Chipping Barnet becomes safer for the Tories while Hendon becomes more marginal, while the minor changes in Harrow have little partisan effect.

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East London
i.e. the boroughs of Tower Hamlets, Newham, Waltham Forest, Redbridge, Barking & Dagenham and Havering

A new constituency is created spanning the Tower Hamlets/Newham border, called Stratford & Bow.  It takes Bow from Bethnal Green & Bow, which is renamed Bethnal Green & Stepney, and Stratford from West Ham, which takes the southern end of East Ham and is renamed West Ham & Beckton.  Poplar & Limehouse loses Shadwell to Bethnal Green & Stepney.

Chingford & Woodford Green extends further into Redbridge, taking territory from Ilford North.  In turn that takes two wards from Ilford South, which takes Chadwell Heath, the northern salient of the current Dagenham & Rainham.  Dagenham & Rainham takes one ward from Barking, and there are only minor changes in Havering.

Tower Hamlets and Newham are another area of big Labour majorities, so the new Stratford & Bow is straightforwardly a new Labour seat.  The changes to Chingford & Woodford Green have little partisan effect so it retains a small Tory majority, while Ilford North becomes safer for Labour.  The changes to Dagenham & Rainham, a very narrow Labour hold in 2019, also have little partisan effect.

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Essex

Southend West extends further east in Southend, and is renamed Southend West & Leigh, although Leigh was already in the seat.  Rochford & Southend East loses that area in Southend and takes the eastern end of Rayleigh & Wickford and in spite of now containing less of Southend than it did before (I don't understand some of the BCE's naming decisions) has its name changed to Southend East & Rochford.  Further west, both Castle Point and Basildon & Billericay take some territory from South Basildon & East Thurrock.

Chelmsford loses a peripheral southern ward to Maldon.  Both Harlow and Braintree take territory from Saffron Walden, which gains an awkward "hourglass" shape and the prosaic new name North West Essex.  Braintree loses some territory to Witham, while Harwich & North Essex loses some territory to Clacton and in turn gains the south-east side of Colchester, stretching almost to the city centre.

Much of Essex is very Tory and so partisan effects will not be very significant.  Colchester becomes slightly harder for Labour to win, as does Harlow, but Thurrock slightly easier.  The two Southend seats remain longish shots for Labour; Chelmsford perhaps moves from "dream on" to "long shot".

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East Anglia

The major change in Norfolk and Suffolk is the creation of a new constituency, Waveney Valley, spreading across the border between the two counties.  It takes Diss and rural areas from South Norfolk and swathes of rural Suffolk from Bury St Edmunds and Central Suffolk & North Ipswich, including the small town of Eye which once gave its name to a constituency.  In spite of the name it is not really the successor to Waveney, though it does take the rural area around Bungay (recently revealed by the Census to be a hotbed of Satanism, if you count around 1% of the population as a hotbed) from that constituency, which becomes more concentrated around Lowestoft town and is renamed Lowestoft.  Elsewhere in Suffolk there are minor changes to the constituencies with one name change: Bury St Edmunds, which becomes a bit more concentrated around its towns, becomes Bury St Edmunds & Stowmarket.

South Norfolk, having lost territory to the new seat, takes Wymondham from Mid Norfolk.  Norwich North extends a little bit further into the suburban sprawl outside the city boundary, taking Drayton from Broadland; it also takes a small area near the city centre from Norwich South because of ward boundary changes.  Elsewhere in Norfolk there are only minor changes, but Broadland is renamed Broadland & Fakenham, although it already contained Fakenham.

Cambridgeshire also gains a new constituency.  This is St Neots & Mid Cambridgeshire, which takes St Neots from Huntingdon and stretches over to include the northern part of the Cambridge urban area around Girton, Histon and Impington; it also includes the sizable new developments of Cambourne and Northstowe.  Most of this territory comes from South Cambridgeshire, which gains the suburban ward of Cherry Hinton from oversized Cambridge and an area south-east of the city, including Stow cum Quy, Fulbourn and Balsham, from South East Cambridgeshire, which shuffles northwards and is renamed Ely & East Cambridgeshire.  As a result of that northwards shuffle, North East Cambridgeshire becomes coterminous with Fenland district.  Further west, the loss of St Neots allows Huntington to take on the rural south of the oversized North West Cambridgeshire, which comes ever closer to really just being a second Peterborough constituency.

Except for the creation of the new seat, the changes in Norfolk and Suffolk are not major and don't have clear partisan effects.  The new Waveney Valley itself is notionally safe Tory although following recent local election results in the area the Greens are (optimistically in this author's opinion) targetting it.  The new Lowestoft is slightly less of a long shot for Labour than the old Waveney, which had moved dramatically away from the party.

South Cambridgeshire probably becomes slightly easier for the Lib Dems to win, but Ely & East Cambridgeshire's shuffle northwards probably makes it a bit harder for them.  St Neots & Mid Cambridgeshire does not look entirely safe for the Tories either, but it has more Labour potential than the other two and it's not clear who the challenger might be.

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Hertfordshire and Bedfordshire

Hitchin & Harpenden is split into two.  Harpenden joins the Berkhamsted and Tring areas from South West Hertfordshire and areas of Hemel Hempstead north of the town to form Harpenden & Berkhamsted, while Hitchin forms the core of a new cross-county constituency with Bedfordshire, taking Shefford from Mid Bedfordshire and Stotfold and Arlesey from North East Bedfordshire; in spite of the border crossing the name is simply Hitchin.  North East Bedfordshire takes a couple of areas from Mid Bedfordshire and is renamed North Bedfordshire, now a clearly more accurate description.

Luton South already extended outside of Luton's boundaries but now it is extended into more rural territory further west, around Whipsnade and the Dunstable Downs, loses one Luton ward to Luton North, and gets another rather clumsy new name: Luton South & South Bedfordshire.  With the loss of that territory South West Bedfordshire becomes a more urban constituency and is renamed Dunstable & Leighton Buzzard.

Elsewhere in Hertfordshire, Hemel Hempstead now extends south-west of the town rather than north.  South West Hertfordshire, having lost its northern extension, gains the King's Langley and Abbots Langley area north of Watford, currently split between three constituencies, and also makes gains south of Watford.  Watford in turn gains Bushey North (in spite of the name more part of the Watford urban area than Bushey) from Hertsmere, which extends east, taking territory from Broxbourne which in turn takes the area just south of Hertford from the oversized Hertford & Stortford.

The new Hitchin is clearly notionally Tory but may be a Labour target if they are doing well.  Notional calculations in the area covered by the existing South West Hertfordshire are complicated by former MP David Gauke's independent campaign, but Harpenden & Berkhamsted may be a Lib Dem target.  Watford shifts towards Labour and now looks like low hanging fruit.  The changes (or lack of them) to Hemel Hempstead, Stevenage and Welwyn Hatfield have little impact on Labour's chances of winning these seats, while Lib Dem held St Albans is also little changed.

The rural extension to Luton South is not enough to threaten Labour's tenure there, while its removal from what is now Dunstable & Leighton Buzzard moves that seat slightly towards Labour, but it remains in the long shot category.

... and that completes the south of England.

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Warwickshire, Worcestershire, Herefordshire and Shropshire

In Warwickshire, there are only minor changes to the boundaries, though the exchange of two wards between Kenilworth & Southam and Warwick & Leamington means the former now entirely surrounds the latter as a "doughnut".  There is a name change: North Warwickshire becomes North Warwickshire & Bedworth even though its boundaries are completely unchanged.  In Worcestershire, the changes to the boundaries are even more minor, as Redditch gains some territory from Mid Worcestershire, but again there is a name change as the latter seat becomes Droitwich & Evesham.

Herefordshire also sees minor boundary changes and doesn't even have a name change, but Shropshire makes up for that by having two: the ancient constituency name of Ludlow becomes South Shropshire and Shrewsbury & Atcham is simplified to Shrewsbury.  Atcham itself, always a very small place to get a mention in a constituency name, is part of a mostly area south-east of Shrewsbury which is transferred out of the constituency and into South Shropshire.  Additionally The Wrekin gains some rural territory in the south-east part of North Shropshire.

Changes in this area are generally minor and so partisan effects will be small.  The most significant is the contraction of Shrewsbury, which makes that constituency more vulnerable to Labour.  Warwick & Leamington becomes a little more secure for Labour and Redditch and The Wrekin a bit safer for the Tories.  The removal of rural territory on the periphery of North Shropshire may make it a little more plausible that the Lib Dems hold their by-election gain there.

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Coventry, Solihull and Birmingham

Coventry North East does a ward swap with Coventry South, moving far enough south in the process that it is renamed Coventry East.  Solihull borough is, frankly, a bit of a mess: Meriden loses Castle Bromwich and Smith's Wood (the northern end of the greater Chelmsley Wood area) and gains part of urban Solihull and is renamed Meriden & Solihull East, while Blythe ward goes into Solihull, which is renamed Solihull West & Shirley.

Castle Bromwich and Smith's Wood go to Birmingham Hodge Hill, which loses its inner city western end and is renamed Birmingham Hodge Hill & Solihull North, perhaps the winner of the prize for most cumbersome new name (and it's not as if the added areas are likely to particularly identify with "Solihull North").  Elsewhere in Birmingham, Birmingham Erdington makes gains from Birmingham Perry Barr which in turn makes gains from Birmingham Ladywood, which takes on Alum Rock from Hodge Hill.  Birmingham Yardley also takes on territory from Hodge Hill, in this case Small Heath, but Garretts Green goes the other way.  The more southerly Birmingham constituencies have only minor boundary changes, but Birmingham Hall Green is renamed Birmingham Hall Green & Moseley, and of course there are no changes to Sutton Coldfield.

The changes to Coventry South have very little effect on what was a close Labour hold in 2019.  Solihull has fairly recent Lib Dem history, but they were very far away in 2019 and the new Solihull West & Shirley is not going to be high up their target list.  In Birmingham, Birmingham Hodge Hill & Solihull North becomes less safe for Labour than the old Hodge Hill, but that was so monstrously safe that there is no practical partisan effect here, while Birmingham Erdington becomes slightly safer for Labour.

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The Black Country

There are substantial changes here as most of the existing constituencies are undersized.

Walsall South is dismembered.  Aldridge-Brownhills gains the Pheasey area and the eastern fringe of Walsall town, while Darlaston goes to Wolverhampton South East.  The rest, including the core of Walsall, joins the majority of Walsall North in Walsall & Bloxwich.  Also from Walsall North, Willenhall goes to Wolverhampton South East and Short Heath and the ward called Willenhall North to Wolverhampton North East.  Those two Wolverhampton seats in turn lose territory to Wolverhampton South West, which becomes Wolverhampton West.

West Bromwich East loses Hateley Heath and Friar Park wards and extends south-west to gain Oldbury, Tividale and Rowley wards and its name becomes simply West Bromwich.  West Bromwich West loses Oldbury and Tividale and gains Hateley Heath and Friar Park, and also take the Dudley ward of Coseley East from Wolverhampton South East; its name becomes Tipton & Wednesbury.  Warley takes most of Blackheath ward and its name reverts to Smethwick after fifty years of punishment for what it did in 1964 though it covers a larger area than the old Smethwick constituency did.

With most (but not all) of its Sandwell component gone, Halesowen & Rowley Regis becomes simply Halesowen and it extends further into Dudley borough, gaining Cradley, Quarry Bank and Dudley Wood from Stourbridge, which in turn takes Brierley Hill and the Netherton ward from the abolished Dudley South.  Of the rest of Dudley South, Brockmoor & Pensnett ward goes to Dudley North, now simply Dudley, and Kingswinford goes into a new constituency which is mostly in the Staffordshire County Council area, so see the next post.

In Labour's Black Country disaster of 2019, it seems that all of these new constituencies would have been Conservative with the definite exception of Smethwick and the possible one of Walsall & Bloxwich, but Wolverhampton South East and Wolverhampton West would have only been narrowly so.  (We have ward level breakdowns in both Walsall and Wolverhampton, so we have exact figures here. Except that we don't, because Paddock ward in Walsall is split, which is why there's uncertainty about Walsall & Bloxwich. Note that "official" notionals for Wolverhampton South East are wrong.) Wolverhampton North East becomes a little safer for the Tories, while West Bromwich and Tipton & Wednesbury have similar Tory leads to the existing West Bromwich East and West respectively, making these high on Labour's target list.  It also seems that Dudley, Halesowen and Stourbridge will have similar Tory leads to their predecessor constituencies, but these will all be considerably further down the target list.

Edit: added a little more about notional results.

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Staffordshire

South Staffordshire gains Kingswinford from the abolished Dudley South, and loses its northern end around Great Wyrley and Cheslyn Haye, and is renamed Kingswinford & South Staffordshire.  That northern end joins Penkridge from Stafford and the town of Stone itself from the dismembered Stone constituency, to form a sprawling new constituency called Stone, Great Wyrley & Penkridge.  Of the rest of the existing Stone, the mostly rural west out towards the Shropshire border goes to Stafford, Cheadle goes to Staffordshire Moorlands, Madeley to Newcastle under Lyme, and the rest goes to Stoke on Trent South.

Stoke on Trent South thus gains a significant component outside the city boundary and now only contains one (Longton) of the "Six Towns", losing Fenton to Stoke on Trent Central.  Stoke on Trent North gains Newchapel from Staffordshire Moorlands.  Further east, small areas are exchanged between Lichfield and Tamworth, and Burton has unchanged boundaries but is renamed Burton & Uttoxeter.

The changes to Stoke South must come close to taking Labour out of contention barring a huge landslide, with the changes to Stoke Central, Stoke North and Newcastle under Lyme make little difference.  The changes to Stafford and Staffordshire Moorlands also make little difference, with the 2010 changes to the latter having changed it into a very challenging target for Labour.  Southern Staffordshire outside its bigger towns is one of the most Conservative parts of the country these days and the new Kingswinford & South Staffordshire and Stone, Great Wyrley & Penkridge both look like extremely safe Conservative seats.

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Northamptonshire, Leicestershire and Rutland and Stamford

Both Northampton constituencies were undersized, and Northampton North takes the town centre from Northampton South, which expands into southern parts of the urban area previously in South Northamptonshire.  South Northamptonshire and Daventry also exchange some areas, and both extend east into the North Northamptonshire unitary (further into it in Daventry's case) taking territory from Wellingborough, which gains Irthlingborough and is renamed Wellingborough & Rushden.  Corby loses Irthlingborough and has minor changes to its boundary with Kettering, and is renamed Corby & East Northamptonshire, which I get the impression is what a lot of people have called it anyway.

A new Melton & Syston is formed, mostly from Melton district, including Melton Mowbray, and the eastern part of the existing Charnwood, which extends further round Leicester to take Braunstone from South Leicestershire and is renamed Mid Leicestershire.  Melton & Syston also takes most of Sileby from Loughborough.  The rest of Rutland & Melton, including all of Rutland but also the north-eastern part of Harborough district in Leicestershire, joins Stamford in Lincolnshire to form a revived Rutland & Stamford, which is the only constituency in England to contain parts of three ceremonial counties.

In Leicester, Leicester West gains Aylestone from Leicester South, which gains Evington (but not the northern part of the ward of that name) from Leicester East.  Elsewhere in Leciestershire, changes are fairly minor but there are two more new names: Harborough loses some rural territory, meaning Oadby & Wigston district becomes an even larger fraction of it, and the name is changed to Harborough, Oadby & Wigstion, while Bosworth is renamed Hinckley & Bosworth.

Northampton North becomes easier for Labour to win and will be quite high on the target list, but Northampton South becomes considerably safer for the Tories.  The changes further east in Northamptonshire have relatively little partisan impact, with Corby & East Northamptonshire still by some way the most marginal.

The new Melton & Syston and Rutland & Stamford both look basically safe Conservative.  Loughborough may become very slightly easier for Labour to win, and the other Leicestershire constituencies remain basically safe for the Conservatives, though Harborough, Oadby & Wigston could be vulnerable in a landslide.  The changes will make little difference to Labour jitters about Leicester East.

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The post boundary changes Stoke South is effectively a new constituency with an old name, and sort of is officially as well: it is now a County Constituency, rather than a Borough constituency. The boundaries are also very odd, but that goes without saying.

Sort of.  It has 75% of the old constituency's electorate, which wouldn't normally be low enough to be seen as a new constituency, but the extension outside the city boundary gives it a very different character.  Given some of their other naming decisions, it is a little surprising that the BCE haven't acknowledged the rural bit in the name, but consistency is not a feature of their naming decisions and the rural bit lacks any significant centre or much in the way of coherence, so I suspect that if they had we'd have got "Stoke on Trent South & Mid Staffordshire", though TBH that's the sort of ugly name the seat deserves...

To be fair I don't think it was an easy area to work with.  My solution was to keep two constituencies wholly within Stoke by turning North into what would have been more of a Kidsgrove & Biddulph seat which also contained some outlying parts of the city.

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Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire
because of the regions the BCE uses "Lincolnshire" here doesn't include the "Humber" bit

The main changes in Lincolnshire are that Grantham & Stamford loses Stamford and its surroundings to the new Rutland & Stamford (see the previous post).  It takes on some areas in the south of the existing Sleaford & North Hykeham and is renamed Grantham & Bourne.  Boston & Skegness gains the area immediately north of Skegness from Louth & Horncastle, which takes Wragby from Gainsborough.  Lincoln is unchanged.

Nottingham could just about have retained three seats within its city boundary, but the rest of the county didn't work that way, so Nottingham North crosses the city boundary, taking Nuthall, Watnall and Kimberley from Broxtowe and being renamed Nottingham North & Kimberley.  It also exchanges some areas with Nottingham South, which loses much of the city centre to Nottingham East.

Without the Kimberley area, Broxtowe gains Eastwood from Ashfield, which takes a couple of outlying areas of Mansfield, a town unfortunate that its council area was just too big for a constituency and its council area without Warsop was just too small.  Gedling looks like it has grown substantially, but in fact the added areas don't have very much electorate.  Rushcliffe loses small areas to Newark, which exchanges some with Sherwood, which is renamed Sherwood Forest, which I suppose is how the name was meant to be interpreted anyway.  Newark also gains a rural area between Retford and the Trent from Bassetlaw.

Derbyshire is one of the counties least affected by the review: many constituencies are unchanged and what changes there are are minor.  South Derbyshire loses Hatton and Hilton in the lower Dove valley to Derbyshire Dales, which in turn donates its bit closest to Derby to Mid Derbyshire, which as a result no longer looks like a rabbit.

Lincolnshire (apart from unchanged Lincoln) is so true blue that the fairly minor changes have no significant partisan effect, and in Derbyshire the changes are so minor that they can't, though Mid Derbyshire will become a slightly longer shot for Labour.  Nottingham North & Kimberley becomes more Tory in 2019 but remains notionally Labour, while the changes to Broxtowe help Labour there.  Gedling becomes slightly harder for Labour to win but is still very high on the target list, while Bassetlaw becomes a little easier for Labour though will still have a five figure notional Tory majority.

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South Yorkshire and Humber Lincolnshire

The seats on the south bank of the Humber are undersized, so there are substantial changes.  Great Grimsby gains urban Cleethorpes and becomes Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes.  Without its eponymous town, Cleethorpes, renamed Brigg & Immingham moves west and takes Brigg from Brigg & Goole, which is abolished.  It also takes one leftover ward (Scartho) on the edge of Grimsby.  Scunthorpe expands a little, taking more of Brigg & Goole, while the last part of that constituency within Lincolnshire, the Isle of Axholme (not an actual island, but an area of higher ground surrounded by marshes, mostly reclaimed as farmland), joins the eastern part of the existing Don Valley in a cross county seat called Doncaster East & the Isle of Axholme.

Of the remaining bits of Don Valley, Tickhill goes to Doncaster Central, and the mining areas around Conisbrough and Edlington go to Rawmarsh & Conisbrough, which replaces the current Wentworth & Dearne but takes those areas rather than the "Dearne" wards of Barnsley.  Those go to Barnsley East, renamed Barnsley South, which exchanges some territory with Barnsley Central, likewise renamed Barnsley North

In Sheffield, Sheffield Central loses its remaining territory east of the city centre, Manor Castle ward, to Sheffield Heeley, which loses a small area to Sheffield South East.  Rotherham gains some territory from Wentworth & Dearne which didn't fit into Rawmarsh & Conisbrough, and there are minor changes to its boundary with Rother Valley.  The remaining seats have only minor changes.

Although it is a Tory seat, Brigg & Goole, which is abolished, its remnants make both Scunthorpe and the new Doncaster East & the Isle of Axholme more Tory, and Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes may also be a little better for them and Brigg & Immingham very safe.  Changes further west have more minor effects, with Rawmarsh & Conisbrough and Doncaster Central being estimated to be slightly closer in 2019 than their predecessors but still Labour.  Sheffield Central would certainly have voted Lib Dem on these boundaries in 2010 and while it is not likely to be competitive in the coming election a shift away from Labour in the sort of demographics that voted Lib Dem in 2010 and Labour since might make it vulnerable.

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Wakefield, Kirklees, Calderdale and Bradford

Normanton moves from Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford to Hemsworth, with the result that these are renamed Pontefract, Castleford & Knottingley and Normanton & Hemsworth respectively.  The latter also loses its foothold in the main Wakefield urban area.

Wakefield is split into two.  The core of the city (except Wakefield South, currently in Hemsworth) joins the Stanley/Outwood area (from Morley & Outwood) and Rothwell, over the border in Leeds, from Elmet & Rothwell, in Wakefield & Rothwell.  The rest of the existing constituency join Wakefield South, Denby Dale ward and most of Kirkburton ward in Kirklees in a new constituency called Ossett & Denby Dale, though it takes slightly over half of Wakefield's electors and so will be regarded as the successor seat by some.  This essentially consists of the southern part of Wakefield proper, the actually rural parts of Wakefield Rural ward, Wakefield's part of the Heavy Woollen District (the towns of Ossett and Horbury), and the leftover eastern parts of Kirklees around Denby Dale and Kirkburton.

Dewsbury loses Denby Dale and most of Kirkburton as above, and also loses Mirfield, but takes the whole of Batley and is renamed Dewsbury & Batley; this seat will have a very high Muslim population.  Meanwhile Batley & Spen, without Batley, gains Mirfield and an outlying area of Huddersfield, and is renamed Spen Valley, a name used for a very similar constituency before 1950.  Within Huddersfield, Crosland Moor & Netherton ward transfers from Colne Valley (which has long included western parts of the town, and still does) to Huddersfield constituency.

There are only very minor changes in Calderdale and Bradford.  However there is a name change in the latter: Keighley becomes Keighley & Ilkley, something the denizens of Ilkley had long campaigned for.

Normanton & Hemsworth is slightly safer for Labour than Hemsworth had become.  The new Wakefield & Rothwell is similar politically to the old Wakefield even if it covers a rather different area, while Ossett & Denby Dale looks like a seat which would be Conservative in an even year but winnable for Labour, who won all but one ward in it in 2023.  Dewsbury & Batley becomes a safe Labour seat (perhaps barring the scenario of a by-election with a certain person as a candidate) while Spen Valley is notionally Tory and would probably be a tight marginal in an even year, but Batley & Spen's MP Kim Leadbeater has decided to contest the latter.  Meanwhile, the changes in Huddersfield make Colne Valley safer for the Tories (and Huddersfield safer for Labour, not that it was particularly marginal).

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Leeds and York and the area between them

Unusually, in western Leeds the Commission has more or less torn up the existing map and started again.  Morley & Outwood loses the Outwood area to Wakefield & Rothwell as already mentioned, and it gains Farnley & Wortley ward from Leeds West, becoming Leeds South West & Morley.  The cores of Leeds West and Pudsey are merged, under the unsurprising name Leeds West & Pudsey.  The northern part of Pudsey (Horsforth, Guiseley and around) becomes part of a very heavily redrawn Leeds North West, which is effectively a new constituency though it does still include the outlying parts of the existing constituency of that name (Otley and Adel & Wharfedale wards).  The rest of Leeds North West joins Kirkstall from West and most of Leeds city centre under the name Leeds Central & Headingley.

Without most of the city centre, Leeds Central takes part of Temple Newsam ward from Leeds East and is renamed Leeds South, and Leeds East gains Garforth & Swillington from Elmet & Rothwell.  Leeds North East, on the other hand, is virtually unchanged.

Elmet & Rothwell is abolished.  Two of its five wards have already been mentioned: Rothwell to Wakefield & Rothwell and Garforth & Swillington to Leeds East.  Kippax & Methley joins the majority of Selby & Ainsty, including Selby town, with the name reverting to Selby, with no mention of the City of Leeds component.  The other two wards, Wetherby and Harewood, join Tadcaster, most of the "Ainsty" part of Selby and Ainsty, Boroughbridge from Harrogate & Knaresborough and the area north of York from Thirsk & Malton in a new constituency called Wetherby & Easingwold.  The two York constituencies have very minor changes, though one of those is that the University campus moves from Outer to Central.

Leeds South West & Morley will be notionally Conservative but more winnable for Labour than Morley & Outwood had become.  Leeds West & Pudsey will be fairly safe Labour, but the new Leeds North West will inherit Pudsey's status as a marginal which voted narrowly Tory in 2019.  Leeds Central & Headingley will be safe Labour barring a big shift in the student vote.  Selby shifts considerably towards Labour which may be good news for a by-election winner (or it may not be!), while the shift of the university campus in York may make York Outer a little harder for Labour to win.  Finally, Wetherby & Easingwold will be rock solid Tory. 

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The East Riding and most of North Yorkshire

The Hull seats are undersized, so expand into the suburbs outside the city boundary, the area known as Haltemprice.  Kingston upon Hull North takes Cottingham, at the northern end of this area, becoming Kingston upon Hull North & Cottingham, while Kingston upon Hull West & Hessle, which already contained one Haltemprice ward, gains the remaining two and is renamed Kingston upon Hill West & Haltemprice.  Without Haltemprice, Haltemprice & Howden takes the final piece of the abolished Brigg & Goole (see a few posts ago), Goole itself, and extends a little further north to take the town of Pocklington; its new name refers to these added areas and is Goole & Pocklington.

East Yorkshire loses its ill chosen name as well as Pocklington and becomes Bridlington & the Wolds, also taking Hornsea from Beverley & Holderness.

In North Yorkshire the major changes are those resulting from the creation of the new Wetherby & Easingwold (see previous post).  Harrogate & Knaresborough contracts a little bit around the towns, and Thirsk & Malton, without the Easingwold area, takes Bedale from Richmond (Yorkshire), which is renamed Richmond & Northallerton.  Finally there are very minor changes to Skipton & Ripon and none at all to Scarborough & Whitby.

Hull West & Haltemprice will be notionally Conservative, though not by very much.  Most of the seats in this area outside Hull are somewhere between safe and rock solid Conservative, but Harrogate & Knaresborough has been Lib Dem in the past and becomes a somewhat more plausible regain and the unchanged Scarborough & Whitby remains the most plausible Labour target.

This series of posts will now take a hiatus, with Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and two regions of England left to cover.

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Cheshire and Wirral

There are substantial changes in western Cheshire and on the Wirral.  Wirral South is abolished.  Bebington goes to Birkenhead and Heswall and the area between there and Bromborough, including the western edge of Bromborough itself, to Wirral West.  Most of Bromborough then joins the bulk of Ellesmere Port & Neston, basically the first of the named towns, in Ellesmere Port & Bromborough.

City of Chester, and indeed the city itself, is split.  The city centre and its northern side joins the Neston part of Ellesmere Port & Neston in Chester North & Neston, but the southern side of the city is merged with most of the rural parts of Eddisbury in Chester South & Eddisbury.

Weaver Vale is another name which disappears.  Northwich joins Winsford from Eddisbury and Middlewich from Congleton in Mid Cheshire, while Frodsham, Helsby and the parts of Runcorn in the constituency join with the rest of Runcorn from the existing Halton constituency and smaller parts of Ellesmere Port & Neston and Eddisbury to form Runcorn & Helsby.  For the rest of Halton, see the Lancastrian Merseyside post.

Further east things are a bit simpler.  Tatton gains Lymm from Warrington South, there are minor changes to Crewe & Nantwich and Congleton (in addition to the loss of Middlewich) and there are no changes at all to Macclesfield.

The abolition of Wirral South costs a Labour seat and then notionally another as the territory from it flips Wirral West to the Tories, though Labour should be able to regain it easily enough.  The new Runcorn & Helsby, now with all of Runcorn, looks safer for Labour than Weaver Vale, while the new Mid Cheshire looks like a marginal which would have voted Tory by a modest margin in 2019.

Chester North & Neston should be safe enough for Labour, while Chester South & Eddisbury retains the more Tory areas of Eddisbury and doesn't take enough of the city to cause the Tories any concerns outside of a disastrous result for the party.  Finally, the move of Lymm to Tatton will move Warrington South towards Labour, possibly decisively even in 2019; we await "official" notionals, but Electoral Calculus gives a Tory majority of 19, surely well within the margin of error of anybody's notional calculations.

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Lancastrian Merseyside

Garston & Halewood loses Halewood, becoming a wholly Liverpool seat again, and regains its old name of Liverpool Garston.  It gains some territory from a heavily reconfigured Liverpool Wavertree, which takes the Aigburth area from Liverpool Riverside, which in turn takes Anfield and Everton from Liverpool Walton, which extends just outside the city boundary to take Aintree from Sefton Central.  Liverpool West Derby also extends across the city boundary, taking Page Moss from Knowsley, but loses Croxteth and Norris Green to Liverpool Walton while taking Old Swan from Wavertree.

Halewood joins the part of the existing Halton (see Cheshire and Wirral post) north of the Mersey to form Widnes & Halewood; this also takes some territory from St Helens South & Whiston.  As mentioned above, Sefton Central loses Aintree; in exchange it takes Ainsdale from Southport.  Southport then extends across the boundary into the Lancashire County Council area, gaining a rural area on the south side of the Ribble estuary from South Ribble.

Most of this area is so safe for Labour that the changes can have no partisan impact.  However the one exception, Southport, probably becomes a little harder for Labour to win.

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Greater Manchester

This is another area where there is an abolished constituency and a new one.  The abolished constituency is Denton & Reddish: Reddish is absorbed into Stockport, Audenshaw and Dukinfield go to Ashton under Lyne and Denton is added to much of the existing Manchester Gorton to form Gorton & Denton.  The new constituency is Manchester Rusholme, a revival of a name used before 1950, taking the west of Manchester Gorton (Rusholme, Fallowfield, Whalley Range) and the southern parts of Manchester Central (Hulme, Moss Side, Ardwick).

Knock-on effects from all that see Hazel Grove extend further into Stockport and Manchester Central gain Failsworth from Ashton under Lyne.  (That Failsworth, in Oldham borough, is in a constituency called Manchester Central is a curiosity.)  Oldham West & Royton sees no changes to its boundaries, but is renamed Oldham West, Chadderton & Royton.

Blackley & Broughton loses its Salford wards but extends instead into Rochdale borough, taking southern Middleton and becoming Blackley & Middleton South.  Having lost that area, Heywood & Middleton becomes Heywood & Middleton North and extends further into Rochdale town.  Salford & Eccles becomes simply Salford again and shifts eastward, regaining Broughton but losing Eccles to Worsley & Eccles South which becomes Worsley & Eccles, also taking one ward from Leigh.

Bury South takes Kersal from Blackley & Broughton and loses northern Radcliffe to Bury North.  Bolton South East takes Walkden from Worsley & Eccles South and becomes Bolton South & Walkden; it also loses Hulton to Bolton West and Little Lever and Darcy Lever to Bolton North East.  Bolton West then loses Atherton to Leigh, renamed Leigh & Atherton, which also donates a rather strange looking salient, involving two split wards, to Makerfield.  (In spite of the temptations they must have had when they looked at the map of this area, the BCE have not renamed the latter seat as "Makerfield & Dangerous Corner".)

Both the abolished Denton & Reddish and the new Manchester Rusholme are Labour.  The extra territory in Rochdale probably flips Heywood & Middleton North notionally to Labour, but further west the narrow Tory wins in 2019 in Bury North, Bury South, Bolton North East and Leigh all stay narrowly Tory.  The extension of Hazel Grove into Stockport might make it easier for the Lib Dems to win if the Labour voters in the area are persuadable with bar charts.

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Lancashire and Cumbria

Two seats disappear here.  Wyre & Preston North is broken up; of its Preston part some of the more urban parts go to an expanded Preston constituency and the rest goes to Ribble Valley, which in turn loses Clitheroe to Pendle, renamed Pendle & Clitheroe, which loses Brierfield to Burnley.  Most of the "Wyre" part goes to a revived Lancaster & Wyre, now including the whole of Lancaster and replacing the infamously badly connected Lancaster & Fleetwood.  Fleetwood itself goes to another constituency which reverts to a previous name, Blackpool North & Cleveleys becoming Blackpool North & Fleetwood; this takes Thornton from Wyre & Preston North and loses territory to Blackpool South, whose name is not changed in spite of now extending well north of the town centre.

Morecambe & Lunesdale, having lost its share of Lancaster, becomes a cross-county seat, taking the far south of Cumbria, including Sedbergh and Kirkby Lonsdale, from Westmorland & Lonsdale.  Penrith & the Border is broken up, with the parts in historic Westmorland (Appleby, Kirkby Stephen etc.) plus some territory between Penrith and Keswick going to Westmorland & Lonsdale and the "Border" area going to Carlisle.  Copeland is transformed into a mostly urban West Cumberland seat with the obvious name Whitehaven & Workington, while without its eponymous town Workington takes Penrith and much of the northern Lake District and is renamed Penrith & Solway.  Finally, the southern end of Copeland, where I believe a certain forum member lives, goes to Barrow & Furness.

The abolition of Wyre & Preston North costs the Tories a seat, but they narrowly get it back notionally as Lancaster & Wyre is likely to have voted narrowly Tory in 2019; I think Labour will expect to get it back easily enough, though, but Morecambe & Lunesdale will become harder for Labour to win.  The changes in east Lancashire move Burnley towards Labour (though not enough to flip it on figures I've seen so far) and Pendle & Clitheroe to the Tories.

The new Westmorland & Lonsdale will be notionally Conservative, but the results of last year's Westmorland & Furness election will surely make the Lib Dems think that once they start working them they can get enough votes in the added areas to hold it.  Whitehaven & Workington also appears to be notionally Conservative, though more narrowly than the existing Copeland.  Penrith & Solway looks to be the safest of the Cumbrian seats for them, though the expansion of both Barrow & Furness and Carlisle makes both of those a little safer.

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Whitehaven & Workington also appears to be notionally Conservative, though more narrowly than the existing Copeland

What are the notionals you have seen for that one?

I would have thought it fairly close even in 2019.

Electoral Calculus has a Tory majority of just over 3000.  Pete Whitehead on Vote UK had a slightly bigger one; that was based on the second round of proposals and as you will know the final proposals made further adjustments here, but I don't think those can wipe out the majority.

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Durham, the Tees Valley, Gateshead, Sunderland and South Tyneside

Stockton South loses areas just south of Stockton town centre to Stockton North and gains some more rural areas in the west of that seat, together with some of the rural parts of Darlington borough currently in Sedgefield, and is renamed Stockton West.  It also loses part of Thornaby to Middlesbrough, which is renamed Middlesbrough & Thornaby East and also has some small swaps of territory with Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland, which loses Saltburn by the Sea to Redcar.

Sedgefield loses all its territory in Darlington borough, either to Stockton West or to Darlington, and gains Spennymoor from Bishop Auckland and Bowburn from City of Durham and is renamed Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor, although Sedgefield is still in it.

Bishop Auckland gains Weardale from North West Durham, which is effectively abolished.  Parts go to City of Durham and to North Durham, but the largest part, including Consett, crosses into Gateshead borough to form a new constituency called Blaydon & Consett, also including the western part of the current Blaydon.  The central part of Blaydon joins most of Gateshead in Gateshead Central & Whickham, while two eastern wards of Gateshead join Jarrow in Jarrow & Gateshead East.

The remaining parts of Blaydon are added to Washington & Sunderland West, which also loses its South Tyneside component to South Shields and its one Sunderland ward south of the Wear to Houghton & Sunderland South, and is renamed Washington & Gateshead South.

Stockton West will be a bit harder for Labour to win than Stockton South, and Darlington will be slightly harder to win back.  Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor, on the other hand, should be easier for Labour to win, and the abolition of North West Durham means the Tories are notionally down one in this area.  The partisan effect on Bishop Auckland seems to be quite small.