UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

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Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Ben Wallace have come out in support of the Pm, are Cabinet ministers forbidden from voting against the PM ?

It's a secret ballot.  Possibly not everyone who has said they're supporting Johnson actually will...

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Popcorn time...

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

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A couple of thoughts:

- If he loses narrowly, then that "I'd do it again" belongs in some Political Famous Last Words collection.
- If he wins by the sort of narrowish margin which seems likely if he wins at all, then it's got more to do with the perceived poor quality of the alternatives than his own "merits".

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The result 211-148 in Johnson's favour.  Not really close, but not great for him...

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Another VONC........to be tabled by Ed Davey in the Commons.

I think the expectation is that Labour are going to push to use the time to hold a vote disavowing Johnson’s new ministerial code changes instead. I think the Official Opposition get priority, or at least hold most of the cards on Opposition Day, they’re weird day and my Erskine May isn’t good enough to be sure.

Tbh, if true, Labour might just be onto something. A vote on the new ministerial code isn’t exciting, but there’s now enough votes, between the opposition and Tory rebels, to theoretically defeat the Government and give Johnson a serious bloody nose. Obviously that depends on how the motion is worded, and how p**sed off the rebels are today, but could be interesting.

A VONC in the Commons will fail, and while it will make vulnerable Tories look bad (which is good for the Lib Dems), it doesn’t challenge the government itself, and pushes the Conservatives to rally together, which doesn’t help their cause either.

Yes, I don't see much point in a Commons VONC now and I don't think the Lib Dems are actually in a position to force one.  If there were the odd MP who actually might resign the whip and vote against the Government in a VONC there might be a point, but I think that's unlikely.

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Some interesting stuff on Twitter about YouGov today.

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There's something we're not being told here.

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If we look at early elections (taken as before 4 years or so after the previous) we have

2019: government didn't have majority
2017: attempt to increase majority
Oct 1974: government didn't have majority
Feb 1974: "Who governs Britain?" Not you, Ted
1966: attempt to increase majority
1955: mandate for new PM
1951: attempt to increase majority
1931: mandate for new government
1924: government didn't have majority
1923: mandate for policy change
Dec 1910: mandate for constitutional change (Parliament Act)
Jan 1910: mandate for passing Budget

It's hard to see how Oct 2022 fits in, assuming Johnson is still PM.

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How credible is the snap October election theory?

The Conservative Party is presently down an average of about twelve points since the last General Election. The way FPTP works, this would mean a lot of defeated Conservative MPs, including many with large majorities.

... including, very probably, the member for Uxbridge & South Ruislip.

(Though Gavin Williamson has today denied a rumour that he might make way for a Johnson move to the ludicrously safe South Staffordshire seat.)

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So, why did the Times drop That Story so apparently easily?  There's no injunction, the journalist who wrote it stands by it, and the gist of it was already in the public domain thanks to Lord Ashcroft.

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So, why did the Times drop That Story so apparently easily?  There's no injunction, the journalist who wrote it stands by it, and the gist of it was already in the public domain thanks to Lord Ashcroft.

If you rule out an injunction, or a D-Notice (lol!) the only conclusion is that phone calls were made to someone higher up the food chain than the reporter who wrote the piece- No10 admitted as much in the lobby briefing yesterday.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/20/no-10-confirms-asked-the-times-drop-carrie-johnson-story?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Yes.  It just seems remarkably timid of them to pull it in those circumstances.

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Oh fun, it's another collection of constituencies given a silly name, though at least this one isn't a "Wall".

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On the matter of Great Grandparents and politics, it always amuses me to recall that Grandad's parents (DMA, ILP and Primitive Methodist) will both have voted against Anthony Eden when he stood at Spennymoor in 1922 and produced some of the most ill-advised leaflets in the history of British election literature: he stressed that he personally knew most of the major coal-owners in the area, apparently quite unaware that this came across as a ham-fisted threat!

My great-great-grandfather worked at Spennymoor before finally moving up to Tyneside. Around twenty years before then though.

Mine lived in Willington, where all the men for about a century worked down (and were ultimately, one way or another though usually the slow way, killed as a result of doing so) Brancepeth Colliery, the pit heap of which loomed over the town like a stratovolcano.

When you consider the population of the area now it's crazy to think that there were enough people in that stretch of Durham for a full-sized parliamentary constituency, but there were. Not quite Abertillery* levels of 'a place that people left' but not so far off either.

_{*Where as it happens a branch on the other side of the family lived until the 1920s...}

IIRC there were villages in County Durham which were basically designated by the County Council for abandonment and demolition.  Were some of those in this area?

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We just seem to be stuck in a soup of rumours this week.

Building on what CumbrianLefty said, the Times is reporting that 30 MPs have resubmitted their 1922 letters since the confidence vote, all before the by-election results were known, with a second raft of letters expected after Tiverton was lost. Obviously that’s pretty toothless while the 1-year rule remains in place, but could become significant if a significant portion of the party puts them in, piling pressure on the committee for a rules change.

More dramatically (albeit implausibly), sources from both parties have said that a number of Red Wall MPs are actively considering defection, possibly as many as six. Labour sources are bragging about having an open line of communication between leadership and the wavering backbenchers, just like they established with Christian Wakeford.

Will be interested to see if any of this turns out to be substantiated.

Scepticism is warranted here I think.  There have only ever been five direct defections of MPs from Con to Lab (Alan Howarth, Shaun Woodward, Robert Jackson, Quentin Davies and Christian Wakeford) and defection rumours have a pretty low success rate.

Speaking of changes of party membership of MPs, Patrick Grady, MP for Glasgow North who has been caught up in a sexual harassment case, has suspended his SNP membership and is now sitting as an Independent.

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I notice a bunch of other SNP MP's are being Tim Farroned in the light of the Roe v. Wade descion, namely the scottish finance minister Kate Forbes and John Mason. Not exactly great news for the party given the existing scandal.

Kate Forbes is a highlander, who was educated in the Gaelic school system, which has a high portion of quite socially-conservative Presbyterians from the Western Isles. Forbes herself is a member of the Free Church of Scotland, a small denomination who did not even use musical instruments during hymns, or sing anything other than the original biblical psalms until 2010. If you’re making assumptions about their position on contentious social issues, you’re probably not too far from the truth.

I knew a bunch of kids who grew up in the same environment, who I met either through Scripture Union, or university. As a rule, they’re lovely people, but if you get them onto any hot-topic social issues, some of them immediately transform into a slightly more compassionate version of the DUP. It can be quite jarring.

The SNP is odd like that. Independence has a broad constituency, so you get views ranging from Afleitch’s, all the way through to Western Islanders whose views are almost identical to Jacob Rees-Mogg’s on gay marriage and abortion.

It’s why, despite her high office, I don’t think Forbes would ever be a viable candidate for First Minister when Sturgeon goes. The political fight within the SNP alone, let alone the criticism from Labour and the Lib Dems would be too damaging for the party to pick her.

Don't expect to find an open shop on Lewis and Harris on a Sunday.  And of course the introduction of Sunday ferries to the islands was a source of considerable controversy.

Ian Blackford, the SNP's Westminster leader, also has some association with the Free Church, doesn't he? (Or is it a different Free Church in his case?)  He has a reasonably socially liberal voting record, though.

Of course there is a long-standing tradition that abortion, together with certain other "moral issues" are not party political in the UK, with Commons votes being unwhipped.  I think that's actually worked out fairly well for the most part.

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Tbh,I wonder if defectors would suffer an electoral penalty. Defecting from the Tories to Labour 2 years after being elected seems extremely craven and unprinciplied.

Hmmm, not sure if that is how it actually works.

It's not really something there's much precedent for.  No defector from Con to Lab (or indeed the other way round) has ever attempted to defend their existing seat under their new colours, for reasons which are essentially obvious but which don't apply to Christian Wakeford.

Shaun Woodward, Alan Howarth and Reg Prentice all found new seats.  In Woodward's case there was certainly some controversy about his selection for St Helen's South and he underperformed in 2001, while Howarth was challenged in Newport East in 1997 by Arthur Scargill who saved his deposit.  Prentice seems to have done OK in Daventry though.

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Of course we currently have a politician who has stood under at least four labels and has sat as an MP for constituencies in Glasgow, London and Bradford, and has stood elsewhere as well...

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I think the Tories would hold Tamworth in a by-election.

But it probably won't happen; scandals rarely cause by-elections unless they approach the recall criteria.  That said, I didn't expect Neil Parish to resign either.

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It was reported the MP named Peter Bottomley said he hoped pincher would return to Government on a WhatsApp group.

I won’t tell you the name of his wife- that would ruin the joke.

Well, she actually rose higher politically than he has, but is long retired.  She is also remembered for her name being an anagram of "I'M AN EVIL TORY BIGOT", which was perhaps a little harsh; I always thought she was fairly inoffensive by Tory standards.

Speaking of her, her constituency was South West Surrey, now held by one Jeremy Hunt: archetypal stockbroker belt around places like Godalming and Haslemere.  YouGov have done another of their MRPs covering a selection of constituencies, this time seats currently held by the Tories but with the Lib Dems on over 20% in 2019: article here.  Perhaps the most striking of the individual seat projections (though, like all individual seat projections, deserving of something of a pinch of salt) is that Hunt would lose that seat to the Lib Dems.  It's not even shown as particularly close.

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He is seeking ‘medical help’ so I assume he’ll largely disappear- the danger point for quitting tends to be in the days after, but we have the looming investigation.

I expect he will stand down at the next election.

As I understand things, the investigation could produce a suspension as it did for Rob Roberts.  And the loophole in the Recall of MPs Act which meant no Delyn by-election has been closed, so there would then be a recall petition if the suspension is long enough.  Unless he quits in the next day or so, I think that's the most likely way he's forced out before the next election.

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Lord McDonald, a former senior civil servant in the Foreign Office, on Johnson and Pincher:

https://twitter.com/SimonMcDonaldUK/status/1544206976820854784

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Fleet Street is now doing the ring around to see who in the cabinet will vouch for Johnson and commit to staying in government.

Those who have voiced their loyalty so far are Patel, Raab and Kwartang.

I understand Raab and Patel, who are almost certainly gone once Johnson goes. But Kwartang might have a future. Odd to nail your colours to the mast of a sinking ship.

Truss is "100% loyal" as well.

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LOL Daily Express

https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1544448544718966787

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Cabinet have bottled it.

Why on earth would Coffey not quit after being sent to lie and look foolish in public?

There may be something of "the hand that wields the knife rarely wears the crown" here.

Also, there are quite a few Cabinet ministers (e.g. Dorries, Patel, Raab, Rees-Mogg) who are widely assumed to be likely to be discarded by any new leader, so it's not surprising they're sticking with him.

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Oh my gosh this is amazing! Hoping for a swift execution. If it looks like Boris will not just lose but be humiliated in a vote, I wonder if he'll even pre-empt it by resigning to save face, it's supposed to be against his character but he did something like that in 2016.

I know the conventional wisdom is that Johnson will never resign, but this morning has been such a bloodbath that I’m starting to think he might make an announcement at PMQs. We’ll have to see though…

No sign of that, but I'm struggling to see a way forward for him now.  The 1922 Committee look they are going to change the rules this evening to allow another confidence vote, which he will surely lose.  If he tries to stay on as PM even having lost the Tory leadership, then the new leader can just call a No Confidence motion in the Commons, and (barring forty or so Tory MPs pledging allegiance to Johnson and refusing to support the new leader as PM) the Lascelles Principles imply that the new leader should take over at that point.  He could call a General Election while Lascelles still allows, but that surely just ends in a triumphant speech from the new Labour MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip.