UK local by-elections 2013

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As far as I can tell the highest point in Hill ward is 5 metres above sea level.

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Holy Word for today's crop in England, which are:

Gainsborough East (West Lindsey)
Perton East (South Staffordshire)
Dawley Magna (Telford & Wrekin)

Plus there's one in Scotland with a preview by Kris Keane: Rutherglen South (South Lanarkshire).

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Here's the Holy Word for the English ones this week, and here's Kris Keane's preview of the Scottish one.

The Scottish result is already in (via Kris Keane on Vote UK):

North Lanarkshire, Coatbridge West
Lab 2145
SNP 452
Con 71
UKIP 34
LD 19

And via Andrea on Vote UK:

Ashford, Beaver
Lab 296
Con 158
UKIP 155
Ashford Independents 85
LD 79
Ind 34
Green 19

Kingston upon Thames, Berrylands
LD 948
Con 761
Lab 455
UKIP 175
Green 112

I don't think there's anything very surprising in any of these.

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There's only one (barring parish councils) this week, Heldon & Laich ward of Moray council.  Here's the Holy Word.

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Speaking of parish councils, the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition have won a seat on Maltby Town Council, in Rotherham borough, in a two horse race with an independent.  Apparently this is the first time TUSC have ever won an election.

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News from Sussex and Surrey:

Arun, Aldwick East

LD 383
Con 357
UKIP 339
Lab 61

LD gain from Con

Runnymede, Foxhills

UKIP 336
Con 318
Lab 181

UKIP gain from Con

So the Tory losing streak continues.

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This week's collection:

Cheshire East, Macclesfield Hurdsfield, won by Labour in 2011.
Rochdale, Norden, a Tory defence in a basically Tory ward which the Lib Dems have occasionally won in the past.
Newcastle upon Tyne, Castle, a ward the Lib Dems held onto even in 2011 and 2012.
Newcastle upon Tyne, South Heaton, a Labour ward where the Lib Dems came close pre-Coalition but not since.

Next week there's one in a ward next to where I live; I might try to do a proper preview for that.

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Sheffield MBC, Fulwood

By-election on 2 May caused by the death of Lib Dem councillor Janice Sidebottom, who had represented Fulwood since 2004, and previously represented the old Broomhill ward from 1999 to 2004.

Fulwood is one of the five wards in Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam constituency.  Like most of the others, it largely covers wealthy areas in the west of Sheffield, and it also includes rural areas to the west on the edge of the Peak District National Park; the latter contribute a lot of area but not a lot of electorate.  The area was traditionally Conservative, with the main predecessor ward of Hallam consistently electing Tory councillors up to the early 1990s, but the Lib Dems took the three seats in consecutive elections from 1994 to 1996 and haven't looked back since.  The current Fulwood ward was created in 2004, and has never elected anyone other than a Lib Dem.  Unlike some other west Sheffield wards, the Tories have retained second place here, with the exception of 2011 when Labour beat them into third.  Some inner areas (Ranmoor, Endcliffe Crescent, Nether Green) were in Broomhill ward before 2004; Broomhill was also traditionally Tory, but turned into a Lab/Con marginal in the 1980s, then a Lab/LD marginal in the mid-1990s before eventually settling down as a Lib Dem ward.

The innermost parts of the ward, Ranmoor and Endcliffe Crescent, were some of the richest parts of Victorian Sheffield, with steel magnates' mansions, some of which survive and some don't, and Gothic villas.  Some of the mansions' grounds have been developed by the University of Sheffield for its student accommodation, so these days this part of the ward has a lot of students in its electorate; possibly Labour's good performance in 2011 reflected them actually voting that year.  Nearby Nether Green has smaller Victorian and Edwardian housing but is still basically a middle class area.  Further out, Fulwood "village" is one of the poshest areas of Sheffield, and Lodge Moor is an area up the hill which has a small council estate but otherwise is dominated by post-war middle class suburban development.  Beyond those, we have the rural areas of the Mayfield Valley and Hallam Moors, which look nice but as I said don't have many voters.

Candidates:
Olivia Blake (Lab)
John Greenfield (UKIP)
Vonny Watts (Con)
Brian Webster (Green)
Cliff Woodcraft (Lib Dem)

Past results:
2012 LD 39% Con 24% Lab 19% Green 13% UKIP 6%
2011 LD 40% Lab 24% Con 21% Green 15%
2010 LD 55% Con 24% Lab 13% Green 7% UKIP 2%

There's a Lib Dem leaflet from the by-election here.  (Ignore the rhetoric -- that sort of leaflet is pretty normal from the Lib Dems in my experience.  Though that bar chart is interesting.)  The Tory candidate, who was also their candidate last year, posts a lot on Twitter...

Expect a Lib Dem hold, and probably a fairly comfortable one.

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The science guy in me is badly hurt and revolted by that barchart.

Yes, but it's a Lib Dem election leaflet.  Producing a non-dodgy barchart would go against a principle far deeper than opposition to tuition fees or protecting the NHS.

(Note that the data presented are for the whole of Hallam constituency, not just Fulwood ward.)

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Interviews with the Fulwood candidates on the Forge Press (student newspaper) website:
http://forgetoday.com/news/fulwood-by-election-your-candidates-2/

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Sheffield, Fulwood

LD 2563 (48%, +9%)
Lab 1035 (20%, +1%)
Con 826 (16%, -8%)
UKIP 501 (9%, +3%)
Green 379 (7%, -6%)

... I think (there are a number of different figures floating around).

Good result for the Lib Dems, poor for the Tories.

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Better late than never, this week's preview.  There is just one local by-election this week, on the Derbyshire/Nottinghamshire border.

WHITWELL, Bolsover district council, Derbyshire; caused by the resignation of Green Party councillor Duncan Kerr, who has moved to the west of England.

Good to see these back.

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Interesting that Labour would still have gained the Nottingham seat even if the UKIP vote were added to the Tory one.  How do the demographics of that ward compare to say Harborne in Brum or Ecclesall in Sheffield?

Strong performance by UKIP in Newcastle though

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This week's Holy Word (English ones only)

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Milton Keynes, Bletchley & Fenny Stratford

Lab 1356
UKIP 855
Con 779
Green 277
Lib Dem 128

Edinburgh, Liberton/Gilmerton

First preferences:
Lab 2893
SNP 2248
Con 823
Lib Dem 605
Green 412
UKIP 235
Ind (Scott) 64
Pirate 47

Unsurprisingly, Labour won after transfers.

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Forgive my ignorance of British politics, but isn't Brighton and Hove already represented by the only elected Green in the commons? Or is Lucas representing another constituency in the general area?

She represents Brighton Pavilion, which is one of three constituencies covering Brighton and Hove, and which includes this ward.  The other two constituencies, Brighton Kemptown and Hove, are both Tory-held marginals.

The Green council seems to be a disaster and consumed by factional infighting between "mangos" and "watermelons".  To add to the food theme the Council leader's surname is Kitcat.  Someone who knows the area better may be able to explain more.

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Waveney, Oulton

Lib Dem 1.9 (-4.7)

Swindon, Haydon Wick

Lib Dem 3.0 (-3.7)

Merton, Colliers Wood

Lib Dem 2.2 (-14.0)

Redcar and Cleveland, Skelton

Lib Dem 2.5 (-11.5)

Hmm...

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Waveney, Oulton

Lib Dem 1.9 (-4.7)

Swindon, Haydon Wick

Lib Dem 3.0 (-3.7)

Merton, Colliers Wood

Lib Dem 2.2 (-14.0)

Redcar and Cleveland, Skelton

Lib Dem 2.5 (-11.5)

Hmm...

Win or lose, 2015 will be a victory for all those who've wanted to see the back of the Liberals (even pre-2010).

Well, possibly not.  I expect they'll have very bad results (as above) in a lot of places but may do OK where they have MPs and/or very good organisation.  I still think holding on to around 30 MPs is plausible.  Certainly I don't expect to have a non-Lib Dem MP in the near future.

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The electors of Askern Spa have rather more choice on offer at this by-election than they had in 2012, with seven candidates successfully nominated.  The defending Labour candidate is Iris Beech, from Askern.  The Conservatives have re-selected their 2012 candidate Martin Greenhalgh, from Sprotbrough.  In alphabetical order, the remaining candidates are David Allen for the English Democrats; independent Martyn Bev from Askern; UKIP candidate Frank Calladine (a poster on the Vote UK forum, although he seems to think there is a ten-word limit on his postings), a former Tory Doncaster candidate who gives an address in Adwick-upon-Dearne; TUSC candidate Mary Jackson and the Lib Dems' Adrian McLeay.

Parliamentary constituency: Doncaster North
ONS Travel to Work Area: Doncaster

David Allen (EDP)
Iris Beech (Lab)
Martyn Bev (Ind)
Frank Calladine (UKIP)
Martin Greenhalgh (C)
Mary Jackson (TUSC)
Adrian McLeay (LD)

Allen stood (and came a rather distant second) in the South Yorkshire Police Commissioner election and Jackson stood in the Doncaster mayoral election this year, getting 3.1% (not bad for TUSC...).

Oh, and a bit of silliness: the local football club was called "Askern Villa" for a time.

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I haven't seen the figures, but of the two Scarborough wards Ramshill was a Lab gain from Con and Newby was a Con gain from Independent.  UKIP were second in both.

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I was half-expecting a UKIP gain or two (Aylesbury and/or East Lindsey) from that lot.  Perhaps Godfrey put people off a bit

Chapel St Leonards doesn't exactly come across in Andrew's preview as the sort of place I'd expect Labour to be winning at the moment.

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This week's Holy Word is at the English Elections blog.

West Oxfordshire, Chipping Norton

Lab 57.0 (-3.0)
Con 35.2 (-4.
Green 4.1 (+4.1)
Lib Dem 3.7 (+3.7)

I believe the Set actually live in the surrounding countryside, not in this ward.

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When this ward was first contested, in 2003, it was extremely close, and the Tories actually won one of the three seats.

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Golcar looks interesting.

Any idea why Pontrilas ward is named after a village which isn't in it?

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This week's Holy Word comes in English, Welsh and Scottish sections.

Yes, there is another by-election in Ancoats & Clayton ward in Manchester, less than two months after the last one; perhaps the Pirates can have one more push and beat the Tories this time (there were three votes in it in October).  And yes, there is a ward in Cardiff called Splott.

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Not "Glan-afon"?