UK General Discussion

[YL]

Liam Byrne writing a note saying "There's no money left, we've spent it all"

I don't know why Coalition apologists make such a big deal out of an obvious (though admittedly not very original or funny) joke.

[YL]

Good news for Cameron with ICM. Labour's lead down to 5.

At the moment that just looks like margin of error fluctuation; compared with their previous poll the Tories were up 1 and Labour down 2 (and the LDs up 2), which hardly looks earth-shattering.

The Guardian has developed a bad habit of exaggerating the significance of smallish shifts in ICM polls, yesterday's article on this one being a case in point (NB they've done it with shifts in different directions).

[YL]

It's a calculated remark: he has many Muslim constituents (they mostly voted for the Tory in 2010, which is how he won in the first place) and his majority is tiny. Arsehole.

I assume that you're talking about the MP for Bradford East here, as there can't be many constituencies that fit, but I can't see what post you're replying to...

Looking at the BBC website, I presume you're talking about this?

[YL]

Chris Huhne's trial starts on Monday.

[YL]

Peter Davies, the elected mayor of Doncaster (and father of Tory MP for Shipley Philip Davies) is leaving the English Democrats because of ex-BNP infiltration, according to a report just now on Look North. 

[YL]

So where are these four Liberal Democrats from?

Sarah Teather (Brent Central)
John Pugh (Southport)
Gordon Birtwistle (Burnley)
Alan Beith (Berwick upon Tweed)

Teather and Pugh are Catholics.

[YL]

Good news for Cameron with ICM. Labour's lead down to 5.

At the moment that just looks like margin of error fluctuation; compared with their previous poll the Tories were up 1 and Labour down 2 (and the LDs up 2), which hardly looks earth-shattering.

The Guardian has developed a bad habit of exaggerating the significance of smallish shifts in ICM polls, yesterday's article on this one being a case in point (NB they've done it with shifts in different directions).

As I was saying...

Patrick Wintour's article on the latest ICM poll does at least recognise the possibility of outlier polls, but it still fits into the above-mentioned pattern.  (And the January poll certainly looks like an outlier now.)

[YL]

Indeed, when I think of the threatened back of a taxi rump of remaining Liberals, an Eastleigh MP is in there.

Who else is in your taxi?

(Assume capacity 6, as in 1951/55/59.)

[YL]

Who else is in your taxi?

(Assume capacity 6, as in 1951/55/59.)

Surely Carmichael, Farron, Kennedy, Mark Williams, Cable and, from your suggestion, Huhne.

I presume you mean Thornton...

Apart from that, I agree with you except for Williams.  I think if the Lib Dems do that badly (which I don't really think likely, btw) Plaid should take Ceredigion back.

[YL]

Child poverty mapped by parliamentary constituency, from the Guardian

Predictably, most of the constituencies with low figures are Tory or Lib Dem, Nick Clegg's seat being lowest of all; the Labour seat with the lowest figure seems to be Hallam's neighbour Penistone & Stocksbridge, followed by East Renfrewshire and Morley & Outwood.  Also predictably, the seats with the highest figures, which are mostly city centre seats like Manchester Central, are Labour except for Belfast West; the Lib Dem seats with the highest figures are Portsmouth South and Brent Central, and I think Clacton is the Tory seat with the highest figure.

[YL]

With less significance, a UKIP MEP has defected to the Tories.

I know that parties often get a bit rude about defectors, but Nigel Farage on this one goes a bit further than usual:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

(Via the Grauniad.)

[YL]

A few cherries being picked in this discussion, I think.

Here are the changes in the Labour share in all by-elections (except Belfast W of course) this parliament:
Oldham E & Saddleworth +10.2
Barnsley C +13.5
Leicester S +12.2
Inverclyde -2.2
Feltham & Heston +10.8
Bradford W -20.3
Manchester C +16.4
Corby +9.8
Cardiff S & Penarth +8.4
Rotherham +1.8
Middlesbrough +14.6
Croydon N +8.7
Eastleigh +0.2

Now, most of those are in seats which aren't very similar to those which are going to decide how many Labour MPs there are in the next Parliament, either because Labour has no chance even in a landslide or they're basically safe.  The only real exceptions to that are Oldham E & Saddleworth, which was an ultra-marginal in 2010, Bradford West, which is in a class of its own, and Corby.

Sort of on that topic, who do people think will win Bradford West in the next General Election?

[YL]

Ashcroft has produced another big (sample size over 20,000) poll, with a focus on "What are the Liberal Democrats for?"

Headline voting intention: Lab 40, Con 32, UKIP 12, LD 9.

People who voted Lib Dem in 2010: LD 38, Lab 35, Con 11, UKIP 9, Green 5.
(The lower figures in the graphic on the web page include don't knows etc.)

Preferred government: Lab 39, Con 30, Lab/LD coalition 18, Con/LD coalition 13
(Among current LD voters: Con/LD 43, Lab/LD 38, Lab 12, Con
(Among 2010 LD voters: Lab 35, Lab/LD 28, Con/LD 23, Con 15)
(Personally, I think I'd still answer this Lab/LD.)

There's a lot more stuff in the tables.

[YL]

And another big Ashcroft poll, this time a "marginals" poll.  I guess I prefer this use of his money to bankrolling the Conservative Party...

Anyway, I'm always a little bit dubious about this sort of poll, but the results on the Con/Lab battleground are not particularly surprising, suggesting 93 Labour gains from the Tories, although he says that the swing is a bit lower in the marginals than the national swing.  If you believe the figures, they're not good news for the Lib Dems: he shows a 5% swing from Lib Dem to Con in LD seats where the Tories are second, and a 17% swing from Lib Dem to Lab in LD seats where Lab are second.

[YL]

Just wondering, but in what seats (or areas, considering boundary changes since) would Labour have a chance in 2015 that they didn't win in 1997 should they win government?

Since there's very little chance of Labour winning a huge landslide as opposed to a majority... Môn and Sheffield Hallam.

Nooo, of course I'm not implying that I expect some massive landslide. I was just looking at the polling average with UNS seat predictions and it seems that nowhere's trended away from the Tories since 1997 enough for a big national margin to give Labour seats they've never won from them.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
I notice just 1 (Chipping Barnet).

Hallam is above that in your list, and the core of it was indeed never Labour-held. (The highest ranked constituency Labour didn't win in 1997 is Southwark & Bermondsey. I also note Môn isn't listed there at all... apparently it's a list of constituencies for which they have a prediction.)

Ynys Môn is on there, actually, but because the ordering is just the difference between Labour and Conservative it's quite high up the list (no. 215).  The reason the numbers don't go up to 632 is that seats for which the Electoral Calculus forecast is for a party other than Lab or Con to win aren't included in the numbering.   Of course if you're including seats Labour didn't win in 1997 but have won since there's also South Dorset.

As for Hallam, it would be a bit of a fluke for Labour to win it on current boundaries but it's not impossible.  It probably needs the Tory vote not to be squeezed too much so that it's approaching three-way marginal territory.  (The leaflets I've been getting recently suggest the Lib Dems know this, as they're clearly targeting the Tory vote.  However, that may be more to do with Council elections than parliamentary ones.)  Labour did win the 1997 version of Bristol West, which wouldn't have been that different demographically, twice, in results where all three parties were quite close.  (The current Bristol West is more favourable to Labour.)

There are a couple of Scottish seats where Labour, although third, doesn't need that big a swing from 2010: Argyll & Bute and Gordon.  It doesn't seem a very plausible Labour seat, but if Ming Campbell retires North East Fife could be interesting, too.

Altrincham & Sale West isn't that far down the Electoral Calculus list.  That turning red would be another example of Tory decline in northern cities and their metropolitan areas, but it's still probably not happening short of a big landslide.

[YL]

Are you even aware of what that kind of language is actually code for?

I suspect on this occasion it's merely code for "I can't think of anything of substance to have a go at him about at the moment, so I'll just produce some mindless abuse instead."

[YL]

The public seem to like people for some strange reason who really don't deserve it like the tired and emotional old Lib Dem leader.

Say what you like about Charles Kennedy, but he got Iraq right, which gives him quite a lot of credit in my book.

[YL]

What are the rules and procedures for Tory leadership elections nowadays anyway? Could someone challenge Cameron in the same way that Heseltine challenged Thatcher, and it would be a members ballot or an MPs only ballot?  Or would there have to be a VONC (as was the case with IDS)?

It's like what happened with IDS.  So occasional talk of a "stalking horse" is misleading.

[YL]

A more accurate name would be Ribble Valley and South Ribble North.

Where's doktorb when you need him?

[YL]

The YouGov polls carried out since the local election results:

Yesterday's: Lab 39 Con 29 UKIP 16 LD 9
Today's: Lab 38 Con 27 UKIP 17 LD 11

These are the highest UKIP scores in YouGov polls.  I suspect we may see a 20% for them in Opinium or Survation's next effort.

[YL]

UKIP won 1 constituency last Thursday on a projected 25% of the national vote - Boston & Skegness. That'll be one of their main targets in 2015, but they need to transform last week's protest vote into real staying power to have any hope.

There were a few more than that.  I haven't seen a list, and anyway you can't calculate exact figures in many places because divisions cross constituency boundaries, but it's pretty clear that UKIP carried three constituencies in Kent (South Thanet, North Thanet, Sittingbourne & Sheppey), one in Norfolk (Yarmouth) and one in Gloucestershire (Forest of Dean).  There may be some others where they only missed out because they didn't have candidates in some divisions; North East Cambridgeshire looks to me like it may be like that.

[YL]

An ICM poll in the Grauniad says Lab 34 Con 28 UKIP 18 (!) LD 11.

ICM's methodology tends to dampen big swings since the last election, so this looks like an even wilder result than on a first glance.

[YL]

The YouGov polls carried out since the local election results:

Yesterday's: Lab 39 Con 29 UKIP 16 LD 9
Today's: Lab 38 Con 27 UKIP 17 LD 11

These are the highest UKIP scores in YouGov polls.  I suspect we may see a 20% for them in Opinium or Survation's next effort.

... and indeed Opinium have come out with Lab 37 Con 27 UKIP 20 LD 7.

[YL]

Survation poll: Lab 35 Con 24 UKIP 22 LD 11.

LOL

[YL]

Why do the Tories poll so badly between elections?

I don't think it's anything specific to the Tories.  Governments tend to make themselves unpopular in mid-term with some of the people who voted for them, so they do badly in polls, lose by-elections and struggle in local elections [1], but then when the next General Election comes round they take a look at the alternative, hold their nose and return to their previous allegiance.

The idea that the Tories particularly suffer from this may be influenced by 1987-92 and 1992-97.  But the latter was followed by an unprecedented Labour landslide, and in the former the Tories took drastic action, which was rewarded in the polls pretty quickly [2].  It may also be influenced by the extended Blair honeymoon, but that was also unusual.  (And even then the Tories briefly took the lead in September 2000.)

As for the current parliament, I think the sort of Tory voters described above are mostly shifting to UKIP in current polls and elections, not to Labour.  The Labour gains since 2010 in the polls are from the Lib Dems, minor parties and non-voters.  This is an unusual situation, and it's hard to use previous experience to predict what's going to happen.

[1] Look up what happened to Labour in 1968, the year the Tories won control of Sheffield City Council (they won Burngreave) and IIRC Labour didn't win a single ward in Birmingham.

[2] It might also be worth pointing out that the experience of the 1992 election suggests that some of those polls in the years running up to it were quite badly off.