Odds for each candidate per ballot (user search)
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  Odds for each candidate per ballot (search mode)
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Author Topic: Odds for each candidate per ballot  (Read 654 times)
Thomas D
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Posts: 4,048
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Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -6.61

« on: April 12, 2016, 04:50:16 PM »

Delegate Binding

In similar fashion, a map of what ballot delegates become unbound after.



Green = 0 ballots
Red = 1 ballot
Blue = 2 ballots
Yellow = 3 ballots
Gray = Never, unless other conditions met.



According to this, there will be 357 delegates that can't vote for Cruz on a 2nd ballot. If he gets shut out of Maryland and he and Trump split CA that number becomes 481.

That will leave 1993 delegates for Cruz to win support from.  1237 is 62% of that.

That's a high bar to clear on the 2nd ballot.   And if he can't do it then will his support begin to fall off?
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