Dutch general election - September 2012

[Insula Dei]

NOS Exit Poll

VVD  41
PvdA 40
SP    15
CDA  13
PVV  13
D66  12
CU     4
GL     4
SGP    3
50+    3
PvdD   2

[Insula Dei]

Roemer should resign with those numbers, I'd say.

[Insula Dei]

VVD vs. PvdA is where all the action's at now.

[Insula Dei]

This is an amazing work, nimh, very well done. Welcome to the forum, BTW.

Anyways, are the results about to come up ? It's 9 PM CEST now.

Two posts up

[Insula Dei]

Wow

You can say that again.

[Insula Dei]

What a defeat/let-down for the SP.

[Insula Dei]

Let's hope this is 2010 in reverse and the final result is PvdA 41, VVD 40

[Insula Dei]

The really comic thing is that I don't see why the CDA shouldn't win 35 or 40 seats next time round.

[Insula Dei]

VVD 41
PvdA 40

maintained in new NOS exit poll.

[Insula Dei]

New NOS Exit poll is a carbon copy of the previous one.

[Insula Dei]

* Best result for the VVD in its entire history

Totally undeserved

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Totally deserved

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Totally deserved

[Insula Dei]

The Eerste Kamer is going to make coalitions much more difficult than it ordinarily would be.

PvdA and VVD would need the support from D66 and CDA to have a majority there.

[Insula Dei]

How important is it whether VVD or PvdA is the biggest party? I assume that if PvdA crafts and leftwing coalition, it doesn't matter if VVD has more seats since they would not be part of the gov't - but I assume that if there is a "grand coalition" just of VVD and PvdA the party with more seats supplies the Prime Minister, right?

A purely leftwing or a purely rightwing coalition seems impossible. Only if Rutte knocks on Wilders' door once more does a wildy unpractical and improbable VVD/CDA/PVV/D66 coalition become a mathematical possibility.

[Insula Dei]

Pechtold about to speak.

[Insula Dei]

PvdA can't craft a left coalition. The only option is a Pvda/VVD coalition.

Hypothetically, you could craft a center-left coalition of PvdA + SP + CDA + D66 -- maybe the CDA, which previously said it wouldn't govern with both PvdA *and* SP, would be a little less wary now the SP has gotten so small -- but yeah, I don't see it happening. Something would have to horribly blow up in negotiations for Purple III for that to happen.

CDA so badly needs opposition.

[Insula Dei]

When will actual results start coming up ?

As we speak. Wev'e already had Schiermonniksoog, Vlieland, and Rozendaal. The habitual early reporters.

[Insula Dei]

Well, I have to leave in about 40 m, so I hope in the meantime something more consistent will come...

It could be tomorrow before we now who will be the largest party.

[Insula Dei]

GL supporters booing Rutte when Sap congratulated him during her speech.

[Insula Dei]

Vaals (in the south at the border with belgium)
1989. CDA. 40.7 percent
2012  CDA. 8.9 percent

CDA crushed in its traditional catholic stronghold in the south

On the short-term the PVV lost 10% there compared to 2010.

[Insula Dei]

This is a huge loss for euroskeptics. Also, is there a shot of Samsom becoming PM with VvD in the government?

If PvdA has more seats than VVD, yes.

[Insula Dei]

Based on results so far (0.7% of votes counted) the ANP projects:

VVD: 44
PvdA: 40
PVV: 14
SP: 14
CDA: 13
CU: 4
SGP: 4
GL: 3
PvdD: 2
50+: 2

This is not likely to be 100% accurate with the crazy swings of tonight of course.

[Insula Dei]

This is really looking worse and worse.

Also, SGP +2? Wtf.

[Insula Dei]

Very small changes in Amsterdam. Why is that?

You can't press the water from a stone, I suppose.

[Insula Dei]

Wow the CDA in urban areas just never ceases to amaze.

[Insula Dei]

you're center, so you're right-wing. Period.

Mm. I share your bitterness about all the floating voters rushing back from their SP preference to the Labour mothership because they happen to have a smart-sounding leader again ... but this makes no sense to me. If you're center, you're center. Right-wingers are right-wingers, centrists are centrists, left-wingers are left-wingers.

You can argue that the PvdA is more a centrist party than a left-wing party, but there's no automatic way in which everyone who is centrist magically therefore is, *really*, right-wing.

Only way I see that work is if you'd go with a kind of "if you're not with us, you're against us" mentality, where everyone who is not actively on your side is ipse facto a guilty member of the opposite side, but that kind of logic (made famous by creepy leaders from Lenin to George W. Bush) strikes me as a bit disturbing.

Again, I've been a bit too much bitter. But here in France we have a long tradition of considering there is no *real* center, and that the center is a part of the right. You should see what it provoked when some socialists proposed to govern with even the very very moderate-center Modem.

But you're a bit right : being left-wing _is_ "with us or against us" in a way. Either you support the workers that make the wealth, either you support the bosses that steal it from them. It's very very basically said, it has become much more sophisticated than that, but in times of crisis as now, it kind of grows back.

So I'll maintain PvdA is not a left-wing party anymore if they are willing to govern with VVD, but that doesn't mean SP or GL may not try to work with them punctually at a local level. It's not the same thing.

Of course you can be principled and refuse to govern with VVD, but that means you will never achieve anything. Just like SP

Never having to govern with the VVD would perhaps be an impossible dreal, but governing without Rutte can't be too much to hope for.