Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Insula Dei]

What's the absolute best case scenario for the NDP? I take it that even with Layton cashing in on being the most likable federal politician for the past 3-4 years official opposition status is way out of their reach?

[Insula Dei]

Would Layton survive a 20-seat loss? Or even any type of losing seats?

[Insula Dei]

I have to say, Mulcair looks like an epic leader. Why do so few politicians these days opt for even the most modest of beards?

[Insula Dei]

Nanos day 2

Purgatories 39.1
Liberal 32.7
NDP 15.9
BQ 8.7
Green 3.7

Very good for the Liberals, no? How long has it been since the gap between them and the Tories was this close?

[Insula Dei]

So far I'm not really impressed with Harper's campaign. Iggy on the other hand is doing quite well, in my humble opinion. Layton's campaign seems pretty generic

[/ end of useless outsider observations]

[Insula Dei]

If the NDP does better, does that also mean the bar for the conservatives to win a majority winds up being lower (say 37-38%) ?

[Insula Dei]

Wascana going for the Liberals would be a pretty symbolic moment, no? I mean, they'd have no seats left in either SK or AB and probably only a very small amount in MB (too lazy to check where losing Winnipeg N would leave them). I know the prairies never were an historical stronghold for the Liberals, but was there a period where they stood stronger (presumably mostly in MB)?

And what should we expect from PEI? Status quo?

[Insula Dei]

Wouldn't it be stupid for them to get rid of FPTP at a time where it would work in their favour if they are to replace the Liberals as the major leftwing party and could ultimately result in a NDP Majority government within a very reasonable amount of time? Yes, I'm being overtly optimistic here.

[Insula Dei]

Also, this is the same nation that gave the world the 1993 election.

[Insula Dei]

Sort of ironic that my first post in this thread was to inform wether the NDP losing seats was inevitable.

[Insula Dei]

From Ipsos's press release announcing said poll:

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Fail.

The Alberta BQ is set to drastically outperform its previous showing!

[Insula Dei]

Some outsider thoughts:

-I can't see the Liberals force another election any time soon (as dantherepublican suggested). They'd have lost 4 elections and anywhere between 100 and 130 seats over the past 7 years if polls and seat projections are to be trusted. Honestly, I don't know how the party is supposed to react to its situation, but they must be really scared of election campaigns by now. Of course they'd also be killed if they participated in a coalition with the Conservatives, and accepting a junior role in a NDP-led coalition would doom them to 3rd party status as it would recognize the NDP as the main leftwing party. Seemingly they're forced to provide whoever forms the next government with a majority on an informal basis, forever threatening to vote down the government, but in reality to scared of the voter to do anything of the sort and de facto slowly becoming increasingly irrelevant. This scenario seems more likely under Rae than under Trudeau though.

-I note that the conservatives are polling below their 2008 numbers, but might wind up with about the same amount of seats. I can see a situation where they make gains on the Liberals' expense in Ontario, but lose seats in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies to the NDP. I suppose this is potentially a very dangerous situation to Harper as Red Tories might get nervous and jump ship, or Western Conservatives might conclude that their grip is slipping and decide to ditch him for a more western leader. This too could be very interesting. (Especially if the Tories actually finish the night with less seats than they started it with!)

These are both extremely uninformed guesses as to what might happen, so I'd like to hear from those with more knowledge and insight.

[Insula Dei]

Is this the best the NDP has done yet (compared to the Conservatives)?

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[Insula Dei]

Western Conservatives might conclude that their grip is slipping and decide to ditch him for a more western leader.

It's hard to think of a more Western leader than Harper, unless by the very act of forming government he has ceased to be Western (and the Reform Alte Kämpfer might see it that way).

Didn't Harper grow up in Ontario?

[Insula Dei]

God help Canada if the NDP somehow gets a minority government.

In that case, he already has.

[Insula Dei]

Actually, would the May Day have the potential to help the NDP? As in, boosting morale and turnout among their core voters? Then again, they won't need much encouragement.

[Insula Dei]

Damn, I thought this was tomorrow and now have made the epic mistake of drinking slightly too much, which means the allnighter I'm going to pull is going to be deadly and I have a 9:00 AM class and a family visit tomorrow. Uhg.

[Insula Dei]

If one were a cruel prankster, one could have a lot of fun on Twitter for the next few hours.

Would it still be illegal if the information you were spreading was false? Good question.

[Insula Dei]

Some birds who may or may not be erroneous inspire me to predict a LIB 4 NDP 2 CON 1 breakdown in NL. Very curious what will happen there.

[Insula Dei]

How about the German Greens? Have they ever elected someone under the FPTP portion of MMP and if so when?

There's one constituency in central Berlin that straddles the Wall which elects a Green, I think.

And then of course there's Baden-Württemberg.

Kreuzberg-Friedrichshain (or something like that). Seriously, if you've ever been there you know hy the Greens do so well. The place is 40% hipster/'artist' type and 30% Immigrant.

[Insula Dei]

With the Welsh elections tomorrow, tis time to change signatures. But I do like that picture of Lewis; not only an admirable man, but also a style icon:

Who's the guy on the far left in your current sig? I'm semi-fascinated with the way he looks.

[Insula Dei]

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He actually seems to exude, if that's the correct term, some form of tranquillity.