Will Democrats ever regain a majority of governorships again?

[old timey villain]

After these midterms, there will only be 18 Democratic governors. The GOP has taken over the governorships across the South but they've also been able to win in blue/purple states in their good midterm years (2010, 2014). How and when could they gain a majority again and which states are the top targets?

And what years do you see this happening?

[old timey villain]

So here are the top targets for the Democrats over the next several cycles by tier.

Tier 1 (great shot of pickup)

Maryland
New Jersey
Michigan
Wisconsin
Iowa
New Mexico

Tier 2 (good shot of pickup)

Massachusetts
Illinois
Ohio
Nevada
Maine
Florida
North Carolina

Tier 3 (possible pickup)
Georgia
Arizona
Alaska


I places IL and MA in tier 2 (despite being very blue states) because a string of corrupt Dem governors in IL could keep them out of the mansion for a while if Rauner behaves himself (unlikely though), and because MA is known for electing GOP governors to balance out the Democratic hegemony everywhere else in the state.

[old timey villain]

^ Add IL/MD to tier 1 or 2.

I'm interested to see what happens in AK, but I'm not sure they'd try to pick it up, after joing with Walker this cycle.

Totally forgot about Maryland! That might be ahead of New Jersey

[old timey villain]

Remember guys, a Republican winning the presidency in 2016 (especially a non southern one) could potentially put some southern seats in play in 2018. In 2002 and 2006, Dems wons governorships in Tennessee and Oklahoma, and while I realize the south is transitioning into a one party region, it's not out of the realm of possibility for Democrats to stage a comeback 4 years from now if the political climate is right. Republicans won't have Obama to use as their bogeyman anymore and will actually have to run on their record and the record of the incumbent GOP president. I'm just saying it's possible.

And think of the headlines in 2018: "Northern Republicans distance themselves from President______"